OUTLOOK NOT GOOD FOR DARFUR ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001172

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KPKO SU
SUBJECT: OUTLOOK NOT GOOD FOR DARFUR ELECTIONS

Classified By: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: During meetings with political party and
civil society leaders in Darfur from October 9-12, POLOFF
found that participation of opposition parties in elections
is unlikely given the lack of political space, security
concerns and the lack of a comprehensive peace in Darfur.
Some rebel groups have been denied permission to register as
political parties, resulting in frustration and threats by
the groups to disrupt the election process. Due to rumors
alleging cooperation between the United Nations-African Union
Hyrid Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) and the Government of Sudan
(GOS),UNAMID is increasingly perceived by many Darfuris as
allied with the government. As political space has tightened,
more arrests have occurred, and some opposition parties have
been driven underground. Conditions are ripe for an
elections-related crisis in Darfur that would undermine the
legitimacy of the electoral process there. END SUMMARY.

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LITTLE POLITICAL PARTY PARTICIPATION
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2. (C) On October 11 and 12, POLOFF met in El Fasher with
representatives of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement
(SPLM),SPLM- Democratic Change, Umma Party, Popular Congress
Party (PCP),and Sudan Liberation Movement-Minni Minnawi
(SLM/MM). All party representatives emphasized that their
participation in the April 2010 election in Darfur is
unlikely given the current security situation and the lack of
a comprehensive Darfur peace. Parties were pessimistic that
the election in Darfur would take place, and told POLOFF that
a free and fair election in Darfur will not happen. Civil
society leaders echoed the political parties' message
regarding election participation. Abdul Jabbar Fadul, a
professor at El Fasher University, stated: "Elections are not
a priority now; we need peace and security before elections."

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REBEL GROUPS DENIED RIGHT TO REGISTER AS PARTIES
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3. (C) According to political party organizers in El Fasher,
a number of political parties have not been able to register
as they are considered armed movements by the Government of
Sudan (GoS). Dr. Ismail Hussein Hashim, North Darfur
Minister of Social Affairs and aleading member of SLM/MM
stated that the Political Party Affairs Council denied the
right to register as political parties to SLM/MM, Sudan
Liberation Army-Abdul Wahid (SLA/AW) and the Justice and
Equality Movement (JEM),among other "rebel groups." Hashim
remarked "If we are not able to participate in the election,
what motivation do we have to allow it to take place?" Hashim
indicated that if the election goes ahead without rebel group
participation, the groups may attempt to disrupt elections.

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IDPS DISENFRANCHIZED
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4. (C) On October 9, POLOFF met with Abdalla Hussein Daleel
and Is'hag Ahmed Mekki, IDP leaders at Al Salam Camp outside
of El Fasher. Daleel and Mekki stated that IDPs in Al Salam,
Abu Shouk and Zam Zam IDP camps completely reject the
election. According to Daleel and Mekki, IDP leaders want
peace and security before elections can be held. Daleel
asked, "Why would we participate in an exercise that
legitimates our oppressor, the Government of Sudan?". IDPs
will not be registering to vote either, a prospect that
concerns election advisors as it will prevent IDPs from
voting if a resolution to the Darfur crisis is reached before
the elections. The numbers of incidents of harassment and
intimidation in the IDP camps continues to rise, Mekki
stated. Daleel alleged that sheiks in the camps had been
given 5,000 Sudanese Pounds (approximately 2,400 U.S.
Dollars) to recruit voters for the NCP. Daleel and Mekki
also alleged that National Intelligence and Security Service
Agents (NISS) agents actively pursue, capture, and torture
any camp members perceived to be politically active. The
thirteen Abu Shouk IDP leaders, all detained following the
recent murder of a pro-NCP sheik, were told they will not be
released until after the election, according to Mekki and
confirmed to POLOFF by the detainees' lawyer, Ismail Katio.


KHARTOUM 00001172 002 OF 002


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UNAMID NEUTRALITY QUESTIONED
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5. (C) According to IDP leaders, civil society members and
opposition party representatives, UNAMID is no longer
perceived as a neutral peacekeeping mission. Instead, they
told poloff, UNAMID is increasingly seen as allied with the
GoS. According to Dr. Ismail Hussein Hashim, North Darfur
Minister of Social Affairs and a leading member of SLM/MM,
UNAMID recently provided airplane and helicopter support for
Presidential Advisor Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie. Hashim traveled
with Nafie's delegation within North Darfur for a series of
meetings, and observed that at every stop, Nafie campaigned
for the NCP. According to Hashim, UNAMID provided over 18
helicopter trips for Nafie. In another case, NCP officials
were purportedly transported by UN vehicles to a rally.
While POLOFF has been unable to confirm these allegations,
the public perception that UNAMID is allied with the
government is clearly a concern among IDP leaders, political
party leaders and civil society representatives.

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POLITICAL SPACE TIGHTENING
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6. (C) According to Ismail Katio, Chairman of the Darfur
Democratic Forum and a senior member of the Umma party,
political space is tightening in Darfur as the election
approaches. Representatives of the Umma Party, Communist
Party, and Popular Congress Party all stated that they are
unable to operate or campaign for fear of arrest and
detainment. Katio was recently released from a two month
stay in jail where he was held for his political activism.
In addition, all political party representatives and civil
society members detailed numerous instances of unfair
practices they said the NCP is using to recruit and register
voters. Alleged grievances include:
--NCP party representatives "registering" voters door to door
--The NCP hosting picnic lunches with secondary students and
promising them entrance to university for help in recruiting
NCP members and voters
--The Ministry of Education requiring school head masters to
recruit NCP supporters
--The bribing of community leaders to recruit voters and
register voters
--Increasing NISS intimidation and arrests of political
activists


7. (C) COMMENT: The outlook for a successful election in
Darfur is not good given the current security situation,
barriers to participation by major rebel and IDP groups, and
tightening of political space. With avenues for
participation in the political process foreclosed, and the
perception that UNAMID has been compromised prevalent, the
conditions are ripe for an elections-related crisis in Darfur
that would undermine the legitimacy of the political process
there.
WHITEHEAD