DARFUR REMAINS TENSE AND JEM IS ON THE MOVE - BUT TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000116 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: DARFUR REMAINS TENSE AND JEM IS ON THE MOVE - BUT TO WHERE? REF: A) KHARTOUM 104 B) KHARTOUM 95 C) KHARTOUM 94 ¶1. (SBU) The North Darfur capital of El Fasher was quiet on January 29 and 30, with no bombing reported. According to several sources, GOS security forces had somewhat reduced their presence in the North Darfur capital. No estimates of casualties from fighting earlier in the week (neither in Muhajeriya nor just outside of El Fasher). Speaking by telephone from Jebel Marra, SLA/Unity commander Gadura told emboff that the situation in the border area (and Fur homeland) that straddles the three Darfur provinces remains tense but calm. Gadura reported that a JEM convoy was spotted heading south through his area, presumably from northwest North Darfur. He said his fighters intend to lay low for the time being and do not intend to engage JEM. (Note: This information contradicts reports that JEM is now headed for the Chadian border. End note.) ¶2. (SBU) UNAMID Human Rights conducted a site visit to Gereida, South Darfur, on January 28 following preliminary reports that janjaweed militia attacked the town with assistance from regular GOS forces on January 27. UNAMID was not able to immediately confirm that the alleged attacks occurred, nor reports of the killings of two civilians, rapes and widespread looting. (Note: The GOS took control of Gereida, a former SLM/MM stronghold, at Minni Minnawi's request so that he could attempt to defend himself from the JEM attack in Muhajeriya. End note.) ¶3. (SBU) Osman Adam Abelmawia, a Nyala-based lawyer with the independent Darfur Bar Association, told poloff via telephone on January 29 that the situation in Nyala continues to be quite tense. He repeated claims heard by poloff on a visit the previous week to Nyala (ref C) that the GOS is distributing weapons to Arabs, and has required Arab leaders to pledge their support to the NCP in the wake of the expected announcement of an ICC arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir. Yassin Adam Mohamed, a Fur IDP leader, confirmed to poloff by telephone on January 29 that heavy GOS security was seen throughout Nyala, with numerous armed convoys and heavy weaponry patrolling the city's streets. ¶4. (SBU) Government-controlled press in Khartoum splashed accusations across their front pages directly implicating the government of Chad in supporting Khalil Ibrahim and JEM in their attacks in South Darfur. GOS State Minister for Information Kamal Al-Obeid told state media on January 28, "Chadian forces have been attempting to sabotage a blockade imposed by the Sudanese government on the rebels of Muhajeriya by carrying food and fuel supplies to them." Accusing Chad of assisting JEM's crossing from inside the Chadian border to Muharjeriya (a distance of approximately 360 km), Al-Obeid claimed that Chadian Republican Guard forces had actually entered Darfur. The independent, pro-SPLM Ajras al-Hurriya quoted Al-Obeid claiming that Chad was withdrawing from its security agreement with Sudan, and that the GOS was angered by Chad's recent support to JEM, as well as France's silence towards N'Djamena. (Note: It appears that the claim that Chad has withdrawn from the security agreement is false. End note.) ¶5. (SBU) Darfuri civil society leaders, speaking with poloff in El Fasher on January 24, agreed that JEM's recent aggressions have earned it an improved bargaining position vis-`-vis the GOS and SLA/MM in upcoming negotiations. "JEM's negotiating position is stronger," Ahmed Adam Yousif, director of the independent Ajaweed NGO in El Fasher, told poloff. "The situation on the ground in Darfur has changed considerably (in January),and this will be reflected in future negotiations." With Fur leader Abdul Wahid El Nur popular but still aloof and resident in Paris, and with Minni Minnawi militarily sidelined, Yousif said that all sides are predicting new negotiations to reach a Darfur peace settlement, and JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim's military superiority will function as proof positive of his assured preeminence among all Zaghawa, and hence (since Zaghawa predominate among rebel field commanders), among all rebels in Darfur. Khalil Tukras, a lawyer and IDP leader in El Fasher, agrees that JEM's recent actions have a more political goal. Referring to the Zaghawa clan of Ibrahim and Chadian president Idriss Deby, Tukras said, "The Kobe believe they are the owners of the Kingdom of the Zaghawa. They are working for the Darfur Vice President to be Khalil Ibrahim." ¶6. (SBU) Comment: It is questionable whether JEM's recent aggressive incursion into South Darfur represents a military victory or a strategic blunder. JEM weakened SLM/MM but showed itself to be heavily reliant on Chad and gratuitously violent in attacking a fellow-Zaghawa for no reason other than to prove its pre-eminence among the Zaghawa. However, it also demonstrated itself to be overly interested in clan warfare and played right into the hands of KHARTOUM 00000116 002 OF 002 the GOS, which would like to portray the Darfur conflict as the result of age-old tribal and clan disputes. Certainly, many inQ Darfur (especially the Fur),acutely fear Zaghawa dominance, whether it is Khalil, Minnawi, or anyone else. The increase in violence and civilian displacements in Darfur in January is due primarily to JEM's aggressive actions - combined with the government's disproportionate (and mostly ineffective) response in attempting to bomb JEM without much regard to civilian casualties. At the planned discussions in Doha, Qatar next week (with JEM, the GOS, and Chief Mediator Bassole and participation from the USG) chastising both JEM and the government for their violent and gratuitous actions should be the first priority, before delving into the discussions of the merits of Bassole's framework. End comment. FERNANDEZ