REFERENDUM EXPERT ADVISES NCRC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001054

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM EXPERT ADVISES NCRC


1. (SBU) Summary: Dr. Mads Qvortrup, an internationally
recognized expert on referendum implementation, urged the
co-chairs of the National Constitutional Review Commission
(NCRC) to abide by internationally accepted referenda norms
and provided relevant historical examples. Dr. Qvortrup
warned that campaign finance would play a key role in
deciding the legitimacy of the election. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In a September 7 meeting arranged as part of the
trilateral process, leading referendum expert Dr. Mads
Qvortrup offered advice to Alor Kuol and Dr. Abdalla Idris,
co-chairs of the NCRC. The co-chairs explained that they had
found agreement on most issues regarding the referendum;
nonetheless, several outstanding issues remained, including
the composition of the referendum commission and who would
appoint its members. Dr. Idris also raised questions about a
supermajority, voter eligibility, and voter turnout
requirements.


3. (SBU) Shortly after the meeting began, Dr. Idris
volunteered a compromise solution to the question of
commission appointments, suggesting that appointees should be
selected by the President and approved by the Vice President.
Mr. Kuol and Dr. Qvortrup were both amenable to the
compromise. However, Dr. Qvortrup cautioned that regardless
of how appointees were chosen, they must gain the confidence
of the people by displaying complete impartiality.

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International Standards for a Credible Referendum
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4. (SBU) Dr. Qvortrup urged the commission to put in place a
spending and disclosures plan before the campaign begins. Dr.
Qvortrup warned that if the voters were not convinced the
referendum was financed and conducted fairly, they might
resort to violence. Dr. Idris shrugged off Qvortrup,s
suggestion, saying that it would be difficult enough to meet
Comprehensive Peace Agreement deadlines without bringing up
peripheral issues such as funding. Dr. Qvortrup countered
that it was essential to look at practical matters first,
because these were usually less contentious and easy to
settle. Dr. Qvortrup pointed out that the central issue of
who would be eligible to vote was unresolved, as was the
question of who would run the polls.


5. (SBU) The co-chairs raised the question of whether there
should be two ballot boxes at the polls (one for "yes" votes,
one for "no" votes) instead of one. Dr. Qvortrup encouraged
the use of a single ballot box for both "yes" and "no" votes,
noting that the two-ballot-box approach was without recent
precedent. He also favored allowing the diaspora to vote and
cited the example of Eritrea,s referendum, in which
Eritreans in Ethiopia voted in the presence of UN observers.


6. (SBU) Dr. Qvortrup strongly opposed the National Congress
Party's proposed seventy-five percent supermajority. He said
that supermajorities are rarely used, and when they are, they
frequently lead to increased political tensions. Qvortrup
cited the Saint Kitts and Nevis referendum in which a
majority of Nevisians voted for separation but failed to
reach the two-thirds majority required, resulting in
increased resentment between the two sides. Qvortrup
suggested that leveling the playing field would probably
encourage unity. He added that a quorum requirement would be
a better option than a requirement for supermajority, adding
that voters could be given a third option, an "I-don,t-know"
vote, to encourage turnout.

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All Hope Is Not Lost for Unity
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9. (SBU) Dr. Qvortrup stressed that in most cases seventy
percent of voters make up their mind on referenda during and
not before the campaign. He said that tracking polls tend to
pick up support for separation at the beginning of referendum
campaigns, with support for unity picking up towards the end.
"If you run a good enough campaign for a united Sudan, you
will win," Qvortrup said, adding that the strongest argument
against separation is "uncertainty of the future."


10. (C) Comment: During the course of the meeting, Dr.
Qvortrup pointed out several deficiencies in planning the
referendum. The co-chairs admitted that financial issues
have not been decided, and that the issue of who is eligible
to vote remains in dispute. Throughout the meeting Qvortrup
reiterated that even simple practical questions such as

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polling procedures and staffing can have important
consequences. The NCRC co-chairs welcomed Dr. Qvortrup's
recommendations but showed no indication that they were
interested in reviewing fundamentals to the degree suggested.
Some of the same issues were raised during subsequent
trilateral talks in Juba, with at least one resolved, but
there are still a number of central issues at play both
within the NCRC and the trilateral mechanism. END COMMENT.

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