SUDANESE OPPOSITION VOWS TO DEFEAT BASHIR IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001051

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM,
DEPARTMENT PLS PASS TO USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SU
SUBJECT: SUDANESE OPPOSITION VOWS TO DEFEAT BASHIR IN
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Classified by: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Members of Sudan's opposition parties
told staff members from the U.S. House Foreign Affairs
Committee (Staffdel Doran) that they have formed an alliance
to oust Sudanese President Omar al Bashir in the 2010
elections. The Umma Party, Popular Congress Party (PCP),
Communist Party, and Socialist Party commended the United
States for food aid and other assistance delivered by the
U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID.) While
praising Special Envoy Gration's overall approach, they said
he had not yet brought the opposition into peace-building
discussions. End Summary.


2. (C) Staff members from the U.S. House of
Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee (Staffdel Doran)
met on August 25 with Latif Joseph Sabag, a founding member
of Sudan's first political party, the Umma Party; Elsiddig
Elturabi of the Popular Congress Party; Dr. Fatima Ahmed of
the Sudan Socialist Democratic Union Party and Babaker al
Shafa'e of the Communist Party. Elturabi praised the USG for
the food aid and other USAID programs that help internally
displaced persons in Darfur.

Opposition Will Deny Bashir A Majority
--------------


3. (C) According to Elturabi (PCP),opposition groups have
formed an alliance to defeat President Bashir in the 2010
elections. While admitting that there is no one party in
Sudan that could realistically get 51 percent of the vote,
they believe they can work collectively to block any GOS
attempts to steal the elections. Each opposition group will
field its own candidate in the general election, with the
result that President Bashir will not receive a simple
majority, thus forcing the election into a second round of
voting. During the second round, the opposition parties plan
to support one candidate in an attempt to unify against
Bashir. (Note: Post sees this scenario as unlikely. End
note.) Alliance members expressed their concern that Darfur
would be denied the opportunity to vote in the upcoming
elections. Darfuri citizens are treated harshly by the GOS,
Sabag said; unless their needs are met, the situation in
Darfur could become more dangerous, he predicted.

Press Controls Will Stifle Elections
--------------


4. (SBU) Opposition leaders complained that the
Government-controlled media distort all of the opposition
parties' campaign literature by changing the original texts
or discarding opinion pieces they submit to national
newspapers for publication. They stressed that
editors-in-chief of the more than 20 daily newspapers and
national press are actually Government security watchdogs
charged with putting a Government spin on all material.
Eventually, they said, even stalwart opposition figures have
been worn down by GOS's tactics; one journalist in the group
said he now censors himself, tailoring his writing so as to
allow it to be published. Opposition leaders also recounted
numerous rallies and speeches that had been stopped or
delayed by the security services.


6. (C) Opposition alliance members also accused the GOS of
violating election laws by refusing to fund opposition
electoral activities, which leaves the opposition without
money to run its campaigns. They noted that the judges who
will make decisions on election disputes are controlled by
the GOS. "They know that the South will not vote for them,
nor will Darfur, and that only a few in South Kordofan will
vote for them" Babaker said, so the NCP will have to steal
the election in order to win.

Groups Insist Census Is Not Accurate
--------------


7. (C) Opposition leaders told Staffdel Doran that it is
unfair that the opposition has been unable to review or
discuss with the GOS the census results. Dr. Fatima said
that in some cases, constituencies have decreased below
census numbers from 15 years ago. She claimed the opposition
has proof of census number tampering. She pointed to Port
Sudan, which according to the latest Government census

KHARTOUM 00001051 002 OF 002


currently has fewer inhabitants than its surrounding rural
areas, as one example of a city where the census count was
way off. She added that in some constituencies such as North
Omdurman and Jazeera, drastic changes in the recorded
populations were tabulated and errors made; a village had
even been added to her constituency. In another instance,
ElSaddig said the GOS claimed that it could not conduct the
census in certain rebel-held areas because the rebels would
not allow them to proceed with the count. However, when the
PCP made inquiries, the rebels said they were never asked to
allow the census to take place.

"GOS Cannot Control Instability"
--------------


8. (C) The opposition alliance further complained that
another political strategy used by the NCP is to make deals
with the opposition to weaken it. Mr. Sabag said the NCP has
made agreements with all of the opposition parties and rebel
groups and factions, and predicted that the NCP would soon
begin to hand out government jobs to reduce opposition
support. Nonetheless, the GOS is facing instability that it
is not capable of controlling, he claimed. In a recent
planned visit by the GOS to El Geneina, reportedly one of the
most dangerous areas of Sudan due to the presence of Chadian
rebels, Sudanese forces and janjaweed, the North Darfur
Governor asked GOS officials to cancel the visit because he
could not guarantee their safety, Babaker said.

Special Envoy Urged to Include Opposition
--------------


9. (SBU) The group praised Special Envoy Gration for his
overall approach and for the progress he had achieved thus
far. However, they said, he has sought little input, if any,
from opposition groups in the peace-building discussions.
The opposition parties said they supported continued
"intelligent sanctions" on the Government.


10. (U) Staffdel Doran did not have the opportunity to
clear this cable before departing post.
WHITEHEAD