SUDANESE OPPOSITION VOWS TO DEFEAT BASHIR IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001051 SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM, DEPARTMENT PLS PASS TO USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL SU SUBJECT: SUDANESE OPPOSITION VOWS TO DEFEAT BASHIR IN ELECTIONS Classified By: Classified by: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Members of Sudan's opposition parties told staff members from the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee (Staffdel Doran) that they have formed an alliance to oust Sudanese President Omar al Bashir in the 2010 elections. The Umma Party, Popular Congress Party (PCP), Communist Party, and Socialist Party commended the United States for food aid and other assistance delivered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID.) While praising Special Envoy Gration's overall approach, they said he had not yet brought the opposition into peace-building discussions. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Staff members from the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee (Staffdel Doran) met on August 25 with Latif Joseph Sabag, a founding member of Sudan's first political party, the Umma Party; Elsiddig Elturabi of the Popular Congress Party; Dr. Fatima Ahmed of the Sudan Socialist Democratic Union Party and Babaker al Shafa'e of the Communist Party. Elturabi praised the USG for the food aid and other USAID programs that help internally displaced persons in Darfur. Opposition Will Deny Bashir A Majority -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Elturabi (PCP),opposition groups have formed an alliance to defeat President Bashir in the 2010 elections. While admitting that there is no one party in Sudan that could realistically get 51 percent of the vote, they believe they can work collectively to block any GOS attempts to steal the elections. Each opposition group will field its own candidate in the general election, with the result that President Bashir will not receive a simple majority, thus forcing the election into a second round of voting. During the second round, the opposition parties plan to support one candidate in an attempt to unify against Bashir. (Note: Post sees this scenario as unlikely. End note.) Alliance members expressed their concern that Darfur would be denied the opportunity to vote in the upcoming elections. Darfuri citizens are treated harshly by the GOS, Sabag said; unless their needs are met, the situation in Darfur could become more dangerous, he predicted. Press Controls Will Stifle Elections -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Opposition leaders complained that the Government-controlled media distort all of the opposition parties' campaign literature by changing the original texts or discarding opinion pieces they submit to national newspapers for publication. They stressed that editors-in-chief of the more than 20 daily newspapers and national press are actually Government security watchdogs charged with putting a Government spin on all material. Eventually, they said, even stalwart opposition figures have been worn down by GOS's tactics; one journalist in the group said he now censors himself, tailoring his writing so as to allow it to be published. Opposition leaders also recounted numerous rallies and speeches that had been stopped or delayed by the security services. ¶6. (C) Opposition alliance members also accused the GOS of violating election laws by refusing to fund opposition electoral activities, which leaves the opposition without money to run its campaigns. They noted that the judges who will make decisions on election disputes are controlled by the GOS. "They know that the South will not vote for them, nor will Darfur, and that only a few in South Kordofan will vote for them" Babaker said, so the NCP will have to steal the election in order to win. Groups Insist Census Is Not Accurate -------------- ¶7. (C) Opposition leaders told Staffdel Doran that it is unfair that the opposition has been unable to review or discuss with the GOS the census results. Dr. Fatima said that in some cases, constituencies have decreased below census numbers from 15 years ago. She claimed the opposition has proof of census number tampering. She pointed to Port Sudan, which according to the latest Government census KHARTOUM 00001051 002 OF 002 currently has fewer inhabitants than its surrounding rural areas, as one example of a city where the census count was way off. She added that in some constituencies such as North Omdurman and Jazeera, drastic changes in the recorded populations were tabulated and errors made; a village had even been added to her constituency. In another instance, ElSaddig said the GOS claimed that it could not conduct the census in certain rebel-held areas because the rebels would not allow them to proceed with the count. However, when the PCP made inquiries, the rebels said they were never asked to allow the census to take place. "GOS Cannot Control Instability" -------------- ¶8. (C) The opposition alliance further complained that another political strategy used by the NCP is to make deals with the opposition to weaken it. Mr. Sabag said the NCP has made agreements with all of the opposition parties and rebel groups and factions, and predicted that the NCP would soon begin to hand out government jobs to reduce opposition support. Nonetheless, the GOS is facing instability that it is not capable of controlling, he claimed. In a recent planned visit by the GOS to El Geneina, reportedly one of the most dangerous areas of Sudan due to the presence of Chadian rebels, Sudanese forces and janjaweed, the North Darfur Governor asked GOS officials to cancel the visit because he could not guarantee their safety, Babaker said. Special Envoy Urged to Include Opposition -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The group praised Special Envoy Gration for his overall approach and for the progress he had achieved thus far. However, they said, he has sought little input, if any, from opposition groups in the peace-building discussions. The opposition parties said they supported continued "intelligent sanctions" on the Government. ¶10. (U) Staffdel Doran did not have the opportunity to clear this cable before departing post. WHITEHEAD