KENYA STRIKES DIFFICULT BALANCE BETWEEN NORTH AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001029 SIPDIS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2019 TAGS: KDEM MARR MASS MCAP PGOV PREL SU SUBJECT: KENYA STRIKES DIFFICULT BALANCE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH OF SUDAN Classified By: CDA Robert E. Whitehead, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Charge met with Kenyan Ambassador Robert Ngesu on September 2. During the discussions, Ngesu commented on the Sudan People's Liberation Movement's (SPLM) perceptions of U.S. efforts to facilitate implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and addressed Kenya's balancing act between the North and South of Sudan. He expressed concern that recent press reports on the use of Kenyan military officers to train the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) would complicate Nairobi's bilateral relationship with Khartoum, which is certainly monitoring SPLA training and equipping activities in the South. End Summary. U.S. Support for CPA Implementation -------------- ¶2. (C) Ngesu was effusive in his praise of Special Envoy Gration's efforts to bridge differences between the National Congress Party and Sudanese People's Liberation Movement that would allow the CPA to run its course. He noted the urgency of breaking through remaining differences quickly, with less than 16 months remaining in the CPA time table. He said that the NCP was pleased with U.S. efforts because these helped them with their two largest policy headaches - Darfur and the South - and also provided a chance for the Government in Khartoum to improve its ties to the United States. He said that his conversations with SPLM insiders indicated that they were pleased with progress on the CPA, especially the issue of the 2011 referendum, but were concerned that the USG was "wavering" in its pressure on Khartoum. A Delicate Balancing Act -------------- ¶3. (C) Ngesu said that he often found himself in a difficult position in Khartoum. He disagreed with some hard line SPLM officials who talked of boycotting Parliament and elections or taking other steps that he believed would be detrimental to the CPA. This had caused friction. On the other hand, he faced National Congress Party (NCP) accusations that Kenya favored the separation of the South. He said Kenya was officially neutral on this point but admitted that in his personal view such an outcome might benefit Kenya. His Ethiopian and Nigerian colleagues were very nervous about how the South's departure would influence secessionist movements in their respective countries, but Kenya harbored no such concerns. He said that the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) had already requested and received observer status in the East Africa Community (EAC),and Kenya was improving railway and road links leading to South Sudan and was constructing new port facilities in Malindi to take advantage of the trade and investment opportunities an independent South would provide. "We must look to the future," he concluded, but added that Kenya was well aware that an independent South Sudan would face enormous challenges. He cited increasing insecurity throughout the South, including indiscipline in the SPLA. There were still 200,000 Southern Sudanese refugees in Kenya, he said, but recently the Kenyan Director of Immigration had been inexplicably turned back at the border when he attempted to visit the South. Kenyan Support for the SPLA -------------- ¶4. (C) Ngesu gave the Charge two articles from the English language Sudan Tribune dated August 31 and the Arabic language Al-Wifaq daily dated August 26. An article in the Tribune described the arrival of 200 Kenyan military officers to train the SPLA, allegedly in the use of the SPLA's estimated 100 T-72 tanks. The article claimed that some of this armor had arrived as far north as Rumbek and quoted the Sudanese Armed Forces spokesman as claiming that the SPLA did not have the right to conduct training exercises with foreign forces outside of the Joint Integrated Units (JIU). The final paragraph cited Washington support for he SPLA, including establishment of a dignitary protection unit and the intelligence service as well as police training. Al-Wifaq carried a second article claiming that the Kenyans were teaching "war techniques" to the SPLA, including how to fight with war planes, tanks and other heavy weapons. The paper claimed that tanks and military aircraft had arrived in the South and said that the Kenyan trainers, who each received 8,000 U.S. dollars per month, had entered the Sudan illegally without Khartoum approved visas as required by the CPA. ¶5. (C) Ngesu said that he expected to receive a complaint KHARTOUM 00001029 002 OF 002 from the Foreign Ministry at some point. He noted that the articles contained several gross inaccuracies and that the trainers were retired Kenyan military officers and not active duty personnel. However, he felt that the reports would complicate an already complicated bilateral relationship. The Sudanese had already complained at the vice presidential level about statements made by the Kenyan Foreign Minister at the June Washington CPA Supporters' Forum, which Sudan took to be unjustifiably critical of Khartoum. The Kenyan Army Chief of Staff had visited Sudan three months earlier, Ngesu said, and a senior SAF general was scheduled to pay a reciprocal visit. Ngesu thought that the GOS decision to go through with the trip, or alternatively to call it off, would provide a good barometer of Kenya's current relationship with the GOS. He said that the Ethiopian Ambassador also anticipated a likely backlash from Sudan when Ethiopian military training of the SPLA comes to light. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Many of the claims in the articles were grossly exaggerated, and it remains a fact that to date the GOS has done very little to meet the letter of its CPA commitments to train and equip SPLA personnel in the JIUs. The government-controlled press in Khartoum has repeatedly accused Kenya of aiding the Government of South Sudan procure tanks and other equipment. NCP officials in Khartoum have also, on several occasions, communicated to the Charge their concerns about USG-funded programs designed to strengthen the SPLA. It is a certainty that the Northern security services are keeping very close tabs on all training assistance or equipment provided to the SPLA by foreign partners. WHITEHEAD