SPLM LEADERS TELL SPECIAL ENVOY (SE) NCP MUST BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001015

SIPDIS

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SPLM LEADERS TELL SPECIAL ENVOY (SE) NCP MUST BE
HELD ACCOUNTABLE

Classified By: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: While the SPLM welcomes SE Gration,s
engagement on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),senior
leaders from Southern Sudan remain doubtful that Khartoum
will implement any agreement it signs. SPLM members told SE
Gration that the south suffers from U.S. imposed sanctions on
Sudan, but they insisted that any relaxation in sanctions
against Khartoum should be tied to real progress toward
implementation of the CPA. They believe the NCP will
continue to stall on resolving the census issue, and that NCP
foot-dragging poses a risk to the elections and the
referendum as well. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) At a dinner honoring U.S. Special Envoy Scott
Gration in Juba August 18, a host of Sudan People,s
Liberation Movement (SPLM) luminaries expressed their
confidence in SE Gration,s mission, and in the impact the
Obama administration might have on Sudanese politics.
Alongside Pagan Amun, Luka Biong Deng, Malik Agar and Oyai
Deng Ajak, government of National Unity Minister of Foreign
Affairs Deng Alor pledged that, despite some maladroit public
statements by Southern leaders, the SPLM will always
cooperate with SE Gration,s mission in Sudan. Pagan Amun
wryly noted that SE Gration was either the "luckiest or
unluckiest" of all special envoys, having arrived on the
scene in time to see the Comprehensive Peace Agreement
through to its end. Amun noted that General Gration,s
leadership and engagement on CPA issues had recreated a sense
of hope within the SPLM. Government of Southern Sudan
Minister of Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng said that
both the SPLM and SE Gration need a common understanding of
the mutual expectations of both sides. Concerned about a
recent U.S. Institutes of Peace report on Southern Sudan,
Deng said it appeared to reflect official U.S. skepticism
about the prospects that Southern Sudan would become a
functional state should it opt for independence, an
implication that SE Gration downplayed.


3. (SBU) On the issue of the National Congress Party (NCP),
Pagan Amun, publicly one of the most combative critics of
Khartoum, began by saying that NCP members were "not bad
people," but that they had chosen to take actions and
policies that have had a destructive impact on all of Sudan.
Most immediately, Amun reminded SE Gration that the
implementation of the agreements, not the act of signing or
the signed documents themselves, is of paramount importance
for the SPLM. Amun warned that the NCP wants to renege on
the referendum because Khartoum has defined its interest in
the south not in terms of a congenial bilateral relationship,
but rather as "money in our pockets." Alor referred to
Amun,s public remark threatening a unilateral declaration of
independence, and commented that the NCP knows Southern Sudan
will vote for independence, and thus the NCP will attempt to
frustrate the process every step of the way to 2011.
Governor Malik Agar said that Presidential Advisor Dr. Ghazi
Salahuddin,s "concern" about Amun's comment did not outweigh
the GOSS' concern about public statements by Sudanese
President Omar Al-Bashir that, Agar said, reveal his
intention to scuttle the referendum. Agar said the NCP,s
focus on technicalities and its last minute decision to come
to Juba for a scant four hours of negotiations revealed the
lack of seriousness in the NCP,s part. "We need to focus on
implementation," Agar stressed. "We have already agreed to
this stuff before."


4. (SBU) SPLM members present offered ideas about how U.S.
policy towards the north should proceed at this moment in
Sudan,s history. "All of us want sanctions removed," said
Amun. "We suffer from them too. But can we remove sanctions
in a way that improves the outcome of the peace process?"
Deng advised that it was important for SE Gration to link the
lifting of Sanctions and removal of Sudan from the State
Sponsors of Terrorism list to progress on CPA implementation.
Malik Agar was cynical over Khartoum,s recent good
behavior, saying his own Blue Nile state had not yet seen the
return of the expelled NGOs. SE Gration told the group that
he would hold both sides accountable if they do not deliver
on their commitments. "Don,t be subtle, with them or with
us!" Ajak chimed in. "Be very clear."


5. (SBU) Deng Alor told SE Gration that both parties to the
CPA will most likely continue wealth sharing and using the
same oil infrastructure after 2011. Luka Biong Deng said he
was concerned that SE Gration had not yet affirmed his
support for the referendum. Much like the removal of a

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single important bolt can cause a car to collapse, Malik Agar
added, the removal of the south from Sudan would cause other
parts of the country to secede. SPLM members told the
Special Envoy that by refusing to discuss the disagreement
over the census, the trilateral talks are "back to square
one." This is a major issue, Luka Biong Deng said, and one
which the GOSS wants to resolve prior to the elections in

2010.


6. (C) COMMENT: Although the August 19 talks in Juba ended
with genuine signatures, firm handshakes and as yet unbroken
promises, the concerns of the SPLM leaders at the dinner
underscored the problem inherent in dealing with the "big
picture" issues that are at the heart of the disagreement
between the parties. The blunt Pagan Amun showed no
reticence in reprising for the Special Envoy his warning of a
unilateral declaration of independence, and SPLM leaders seem
uninterested in reining him in. SPLM leaders will continue
to work within the trilateral process, but their perception
that the NCP is not an honest interlocutor makes prospects of
separation increasingly inevitable.

7. (U) SE Gration's office cleared this cable.
WHITEHEAD