NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY WEATHERS MAOIST STORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000782

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY WEATHERS MAOIST STORM

Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Jeffrey A. Moon. Reasons 1.4 (
b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A long-time confidant of Nepali Congress (NC)
party leader G.P. Koirala believes the current government
will survive Maoist challenges in the coming months and that
the Maoists may join the governing coalition by the end of

2009. Two influential NC "Young Turks" take the opposite
view, arguing the Maoists are defining the political agenda
and will succeed in bringing down the current government.
They blame their own NC leadership for failing to develop a
proactive agenda. End Summary.


2. (C) The following report draws on two August 20 meetings:
Charge's meeting with Suresh Chandra Chalise, a long-time
confidant to NC leader G.P. Koirala and Nepal's
Ambassador-designate to the United Kingdom; and Emboff's
meeting with Constituent Assembly (CA) members Gagan Thapa, a
33-year old leader of NC's "Young Turks," and Nabindra Raj
Joshi, another young NC CA member directly elected from
central Kathmandu.

MAOISTS TO BLAME
--------------

3. (C) Chalise expressed frustration over Nepal,s current
political stalemate and, not surprisingly, attributed the
problem to the Maoists. The NC does not trust the Maoists,
Chalise said, because the Maoists have repeatedly espoused a
commitment to the democratic process while repeatedly acting
to undermine democracy. He recalled, for example, that the
NC and the Maoists agreed to work together to end the
monarchy, but that the Maoists refused further cooperation
after they won a plurality in the CA election. Similarly,
the Maoists originally agreed with the NC proposal to
establish a "high-level mechanism" to resolve differences
between the major political parties. The United Nations
Security Council subsequently endorsed that approach, but the
Maoists have now backed away from their earlier commitment.
Thapa and Joshi agreed the Maoists cannot be trusted.

COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRACY DOUBTED
--------------

4. (C) According to Chalise, the Maoists need to prove their
commitment to the democratic process and said the
international community should press for them to abide by
democratic principles. Chalise claimed that the Maoists
invariably espoused democracy and the democratic process
during conversations with international observers, but their
private statements and party literature revealed their true,
undemocratic intentions. He welcomed the Maoists to join --
but not to lead -- a coalition government that included the
NC. He categorically denied rumors that the NC and the
Maoists might reach an agreement to form a new government
under Maoist leadership. (Note: UNMIN was the source of that
rumor.)

VIEW FROM THE TRENCHES
--------------

5. (C) NC "Young Turks" Thapa and Joshi agreed that the
Maoists must be forced into accepting democratic principles.
In stark contrast to Chalise, both suggested the root of the
current crisis is the lack of leadership and strategic
thinking in the Nepali Congress. The NC has not taken a
single step to counter even the shallowest and most
transparent Maoist lies. Neither asked for international
community pressure on the Maoists. Instead, they --
particularly Thapa -- said the NC has to aggressively
confront the Maoists. The party needs to reinvent its
campaign tactics and community outreach, but both were
doubtful the current NC leadership was up to the challenge.

FUTURE OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT
--------------

6. (C) Thapa and Joshi were skeptical the current government
would survive through October due, in large part, to the
absence of an alternative political message from their own
party. They said the Maoist proposal of federalist states

KATHMANDU 00000782 002 OF 002


based on ethnic boundaries, which is opposed by the NC and
Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (UML)
parties, would eventually win over the ethnic minority
parties in government and cause the current coalition to
collapse.


7. (C) Chalise, on the other hand, had no doubt the current
government would survive the series of protests the Maoists
have announced for the coming month. He predicted the
protests would "fizzle out" by the end of September and then
resume in November. Discounting the possibility the protests
could become widespread or spin out of control, he thought it
possible that the Maoists might agree to become a governing
coalition partner by December 2009. Notably, he raised the
possibility that another leader -- perhaps UML leader
Jalanath Khanal -- might eventually replace Prime Minister
M.K. Nepal to maintain coalition stability, but he refused to
elaborate further.


8. (C) Comment: Most observers, including NC's own CA
members, are pessimistic the current government will survive
without Maoist support. Chalise espoused the established NC
thinking and gave no hint that the party leadership is
prepared to compromise with the Maoists over the various
issues that will test the current government in the coming
months.
MOON