NEPAL: HOME MINISTER CONFRONTS SECURITY CHALLENGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000741 SIPDIS DEPT FOR DS/ITA, DS/IP/SCA AND SCA/INSB E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC IN NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: HOME MINISTER CONFRONTS SECURITY CHALLENGES REF: A. KATHMANDU 732 ¶B. KATHMANDU 692 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Jeffrey A. Moon. Reasons 1.4 (b/ d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Home Minister Bhim Rawal has unveiled a new security plan intended to curb violence and end impunity. Key aspects of the plan have been developed in coordination with the U.S.-sponsored Security Sector Reform (SSR) project and include redoubling efforts to increase security personnel and preventing strikes that frequently paralyze the Nepali capital. The fresh energy and determination that Rawal brings to this effort are impressive, but challenges he faces include Maoist opposition to the plan, an ineffective and politicized police force, and ethnic suspicions of his intentions. Rawal consulted widely to obtain support for his proposed reforms, but the plan will not be fully implemented before planned Maoist demonstrations throughout the month of August. End Summary. Security Plan Unveiled -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Home Minister Bhim Rawal, a Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (UML) leader who oversees Nepal's internal security portfolio, unveiled a special security plan on July 29 to improve the law and order situation across the country. The security plan calls for 16,000 new security officers. The proposal would augment police patrols and effectively place the NEPAL Police, Armed Police Force, and National Investigation Department under a unified command. Rawal expressed determination to end "bandhs"--ad hoc, widely-enforced strikes that frequently include road blockades to disrupt traffic and force closure of public offices and educational institutions. The plan also focuses on curbing organized crime and other serious offenses as well as countering the threat of armed groups in the Terai. ¶3. (SBU) Rawal previewed the plan during a July 20 briefing for the diplomatic community, but did not offer the details described above. In a written statement distributed at the briefing, he reported an increase in crime of 10.77 percent during the preceding eleven months and--580 bandhs and strikes and 465 road obstructions--between February and April ¶2009. Describing the security plan at a U.S.-sponsored NEPAL Transition to Peace (NTTP) Forum on July 31, Rawal emphasized his intention to crack down on armed groups in the Terai and to oppose any political protection for criminals. He described a code of conduct designed to ensure that police comply with human rights standards. Coalition Support -------------- ¶4. (C) Parties in the governing coalition have offered strong support for the plan. Ganga Tuladhar, a UML politburo member, told Emboff on July 31 that Rawal was sincere in his efforts to curb crime and predicted that the plan would improve the security environment. Tuladhar reported that the Home Minister held several rounds of talks with the leaders of all major political parties to obtain support for the work of the security agencies. He conducted similar discussions with the heads of the NEPAL Police and Armed Police Force. Practical Difficulties -------------- ¶5. (C) Tuladhar and other Rawal supporters concede, however, that the plan will be difficult to implement because it addresses long-term, systemic problems that cannot be solved easily. Narayan Khadka, a Nepali Congress (CA) party leader, commented to Charge on August 4 that the greatest obstacle to implementation would be political meddling within the police force. Retired Lt. Gen. Vivek Shah, a former royalist believed to have Maoist ties, recalled during a July 31 conversation with Charge that various Home Ministers had tried unsuccessfully in the past to introduce similar reforms. Shah had no confidence that Rawal would succeed where so many others had failed. KATHMANDU 00000741 002 OF 003 Maoist Opposition -------------- ¶6. (C) At least two groups have publicly withheld support for the Home Minister's security strategy: the Maoists and Madhesis. On July 31, the Home Minister told NTTP forum participants that he was still in the process of convincing the Maoists to buy into the security strategy. That statement undoubtedly remains accurate because the Maoists announced on August 6 a month-long series of political demonstrations to protest the President,s April 2009 to reinstate the Army Chief of Staff. According to Sanat Basnet, the Inspector General of the Armed Police, Rawal,s new strategy will not be fully implemented prior to Maoist demonstrations anticipated throughout the month of August, in which case current rules of engagement would apply. The government has yet to formally coordinate a security strategy for responding to Maoist unrest, but Basnet told Emboff on August 7 that police would use batons, tear gas and "other measures" necessary to respond to Maoist protestors. Madhesi Fears -------------- ¶7. (C) Madhesi leaders have voiced concerns that the plan will be a pretext for targeting Madhesis. Upendra Yadav, chairman of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MRPF),the largest Madhesi party and the fourth-largest party in the Constituent Assembly, gave a speech in the eastern district of Udayapur during which he characterized Rawal's plan as a deliberate attempt to suppress the voice of the Madhesi people. ¶8. (C) Madhesis cite anecdotal evidence to support those suspicions. In an August 3 conversation with Emboff, Jitendra Prasad Sonar, a Constituent Assembly member from the Terai Madhes Democratic Party, accused security personnel of abusing force under the pretext of controlling criminal activities in the Terai. Laxman Lal Karna, a Constituent Assembly member from the Sadbhavana Party,faulted the government for selecting the most sensitive Terai districts for massive security operations without first differentiating between criminal and political groups and engaging in dialogue with those willing to negotiate a solution to their grievances. (Note: Previous government attempts to negotiate with armed groups in the Terai have yielded limited results. End note.) Abhishek Shah, a young Constituent Assembly member from the MPRF, offered support for the security plan with the caveat that the government needed to be open and honest in its implementation -- and work with Indian security agencies to curb criminal activities on both sides of the border. ¶9. (C) Madeshi politicians may oppose the plan, but Madeshi businessmen in the Terai reportedly welcome increased efforts to enhance security. Criminal gangs in the Terai frequently target businessmen for extortion and kidnapping, so the business community has much to gain from an enhanced security program. USAID contractors in Terai have received anecdotal evidence suggesting that average citizens are also pleased by increased security in the region, but are suspicious that authorities will use the plan to suppress Madhesis. Pro-American Rising Star -------------- ¶10. (C) Comment: Plain-spoken, tough-willed, and a strong leader, Rawal is a familiar and forthcoming embassy contact who is competent, intelligent and sincere. He is a rising star within the UML who displays great potential for the future. He has a favorable attitude toward the United States and has participated in the Department of Defense-sponsored Security Stabilization Reform (SSR) Core Group as well as USAID,s NEPAL Transition To Peace (NTTP) project. Rawal continues to consult with SSR colleagues on how best to implement the reforms described above. ¶11. (C) Post shares the skepticism of many observers that any Home Minister in Nepal, including Rawal, can quickly or easily reform the security sector. Strong political forces KATHMANDU 00000741 003 OF 003 will complicate -- and probably prevent -- significant reforms, but Rawal has already taken small steps toward changing the security environment. Since his appointment as Home Minister on June 17, for example, Rawal sent an SMS to all cell phones in the country with directions on how to contact the police by landline, cell, and email should a person feel threatened or witness a crime. Much remains to be done, of course, but Rawal strikes post as one of the few Nepali politicians most likely to achieve whatever change is possible while serving as Home Minister. ¶12. (SBU) Additional biographic information about Rawal was reported in reftel. End Comment. MOON