NEPAL: MAOIST PROTEST CAMPAIGN BEGINS QUIETLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000737 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PTER ASEC CASC NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST PROTEST CAMPAIGN BEGINS QUIETLY REF: A. KTM 732 ¶B. KTM 726 Classified By: Charge d' Affaires, a.i., Jeffrey Moon. Reasons 1.4 (b/ d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Maoists' month-long protest campaign began quietly on August 7 with small-scale, inconsequential protests, but sources confirm Maoist preparations to mobilize supporters in coming weeks for peaceful demonstrations. Meanwhile, the government coalition decided the previous evening not to address Maoist political demands and security forces are meeting to develop a plan for responding to Maoist protests. Maoists have announced additional protests scheduled for August 9. RAINY DAY -------------- ¶2. (U) Heavy rain prevented Maoists from staging protests on the morning of August 7, but peaceful demonstrations were scheduled for the evening in front of the Constituent Assembly (CA) and in a major park during the afternoon. The expected turnout is unknown. The CA has not decided if it will cancel the day's session, set to begin at 1700 local time. The Maoists told press they will hold larger protests in an increased number of locations on August 9. RALLYING SUPPORTERS -------------- ¶3. (C) Post has received multiple reports that Maoists are actively mobilizing their main constituent groups--the Young Communist League (YCL),trade unions, and ethnic minorities. Parshuram Tamang, chairman of the small ethnic minority Tamsaling NEPAL Rastriya Party, told Charge he had been approached by Maoist leaders seeking his group's support for the protests. Tamang also said he had been unable to schedule meetings with other Tamang groups because they had been "mobilized" by Maoist activists to assist in demonstrations in the field. There are similar unconfirmed, reports from Nepal's ethnic minority communities and union groups. SECURITY RESPONSE -------------- ¶4. (U) The Prime Minister and representatives of the 22 parties in the government coalition met on the evening of August 6 to coordinate the government's response to Maoist demands. The coalition agreed not to satisfy the Maoists, but did not specify how the government would respond to protests. ¶5. (C) Sanat Basnet, Inspector General of Police of the Armed Police Force, told Emboff the Home Ministry was meeting to coordinate a security response to the protests and to determine what level of response to use. Police and security forces traditionally have not tried to stop Maoist protests as long as they remain non-violent. WILD CARDS -------------- ¶6. (U) The August 7 editions of the English-language "Himalayan Times" and "Republica" newspapers speculated that demonstrations could take on a life of their own and turn violent if allowed to continue. ¶7. (C) Padma Ratna Thuladar, human rights activist and former Minister of Health and Labor, expressed similar sentiments and told Charge on August 7 that the YCL, the Maoist's militia wing, has on occasion staged violent protests contrary to the orders of Maoist leaders. He feared the YCL might intentionally or unintentionally instigate violence beyond the control of Maoist leaders. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The first day of protests passed without major incident, but no political compromise is within reach. Post KATHMANDU 00000737 002 OF 002 is concerned that an accidental conflict between police and protestors might occur unintentionally, sparking more extreme anti-government protests and energizing currently inactive Maoist supporters. Post has issued a warden message warning of the potential dangers of political demonstrations. MOON