NEPAL: MAOIST DEMONSTRATIONS BEGINNING AUGUST 7

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000726 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST DEMONSTRATIONS BEGINNING AUGUST 7 REF: KTM 697 Classified By: Charge de Affaires Jeffrey Moon, a.i. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) . ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) party announced they will begin demonstrations in the streets and in parliament August 7, unless the coalition government meets a series of demands. The Maoists are demanding a parliamentary debate on the issue of "civilian supremacy" by August 6, and are demanding participation in a consensus government under their leadership. Both demands are highly unlikely to be met by the deadline. Post is carefully watching the demonstration planning process and is prepared for possible disruptions to mission activities. END SUMMARY. Maoists Issue Ultimatum, Threaten To Launch People,s Movement -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On August 2, the UCPN-M announced a schedule for protests to pressure the Government of Nepal (GON) to meet a series of demands, including a discussion about "civilian supremacy" over the Nepal Army and the inclusion of the Maoists in a consensus government under their leadership. The Maoists initially plan to hold peaceful street demonstrations and prevent parliamentary proceedings in the Constituent Assembly (CA). The protests are to begin on August 7 and continue through mid-September. The Maoists have threatened to launch a third Jana Andolan ("People,s Movement") if the GON does not bow to their demands. ¶3. (SBU) When the Maoists in early July ceased their Kathmandu-wide protests and allowed parliament to resume operations to facilitate passage of the budget for the fiscal year beginning July 15, the Maoist leadership issued an ultimatum with a deadline of August 6. The Maoists demanded the GON to address the legitimacy of President Yadav,s reinstatement of the Chief of the Army Staff, General Katawal. Joint Secretary Mukunda Sharma, the spokesperson for the CA, told Emboff on August 4 that the CA has no plans to address either demand on the floor of parliament. Protest Schedule -------------- ¶4. (C) Baburam Bhattarai, the number three in the Maoist party, reportedly is in charge of planning the demonstrations. (Comment: Post expects the Bhattarai-led protests to be more organized than the scattershot events of the past month. End comment.) UNMIN Officer Yohn Medina told Emboff on August 4 that they see the protest schedule as merely a Maoist negotiating tool in the ongoing discussions regarding the creation of a high-level inter-party working group to address peace process and constitution drafting issues. According to press reports, the Maoists, protest schedule is as follows: --August 7: Obstruct parliament, hold street agitation, and conduct publicity campaign to inform the public about the protest. --August 9: Nationwide protest demonstrations, sit-in programs, and "corner meetings." --August 9-26: Boycott presidential programs, and hold black flags up during presidential programs. --September 11: Hold mass gatherings in Kathmandu. --September 15: Hold mass gatherings against government in major cities. Comment -------------- ¶4. (SBU) It is unclear whether the Maoists intend the demonstrations to be merely a propaganda exercise or a more serious attempt to press their political agenda. Post does not anticipate that the demonstrations will erupt into a "People's Movement," but will nonetheless monitor events KATHMANDU 00000726 002 OF 002 carefully and be prepared for possible disruption to mission activities. Ironically, the demonstrations are scheduled to begin just one day before General Katawal will hand day-to-day operations over to his successor and begin a one month vacation prior to his formal retirement (reftel). Katawal will fade from the scene with or without demonstrations, but Maoist efforts to disrupt the current government and find a way back into power will continue unabated. MOON