NEPAL: CHIEF OF ARMY STAFF KATAWAL ANNOUNCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000697 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INSB E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: CHIEF OF ARMY STAFF KATAWAL ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT REF: A. KATHMANDU 608 ¶B. KATHMANDU 538 ¶C. KATHMANDU 364 ¶D. KATHMANDU 339 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Jeffrey A. Moon. Reasons 1.4 (b/ d) ¶1. (SBU) On July 27, the Chief of the Army Staff, General Rookmangud Katawal, called on President Ram Baran Yadav to announce his retirement and introduce his successor, Lt. Gen. Chhatraman Gurung. Katawal said he would take the customary one-month leave beginning August 8 before his retirement on September 10. This announcement, which ends months of speculation about whether Katawal would try to extend his term (reftels),should help end the Government of Nepal's stalemate with the Maoist opposition. The question of the President's constitutional authority, however, remains a sticking point for the Maoists. Gurung's ascent to COAS follows the tradition of seniority; Lt. Gen. Khadka, the previous second-in-command and Acting COAS during the sacking controversy, retired on June 21. No Support for Extension -------------- ¶2. (C) It was common knowledge in KATHMANDU that Katawal wanted an extension but no sources reported that he actually requested one, probably because he realized he lacked sufficient support within both the political parties and the armed forces. Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and Nepali Congress leader Girija Prasad Koirala had all told the Ambassador that Katawal should retire on schedule. On June 21, Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon told the Ambassador that he had also delivered a clear signal to Katawal that New Delhi would not welcome an extension (Ref B). ¶3. (C) Foreign Minister Sujata Koirala told Charge on the evening of July 28 that she was pleased to hear about Katawal's announcement. She said that she found his personality abrasive and, for that reason, refused a request for a courtesy call after she was appointed to her current post. Koirala described Gurung as "low-key" and indicated that she liked him. What Next for Katawal? -------------- ¶4. (C) Katawal's next move after his retirement from the Nepal Army is a mystery. Katawal had suggested in the press that he could become the President's national security advisor; however, the President's office has dismissed these rumors. Previous retired generals have gone on to serve as ambassadors, but Foreign Minister Koirala told Charge that she would ensure that he would not receive an ambassadorial appointment. Local observers suspect that Katawal will not have firm plans before September. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Katawal's decision to retire on schedule is a positive step toward overcoming a major stalemate with the Maoist opposition. The Maoists had made Katawal's departure an ultimatum, and they likely will claim his retirement as a victory. Finally rid of their outspoken nemesis in the Nepal Army, they may see an opportunity to return to the table and negotiate terms for Maoist participation in a government of national unity. Local observers perceive that Katawal's successor, Lt. Gen. Gurung, would be less likely than Katawal to challenge cabinet decisions and more likely to be open to advice from his staff officers. Gurung's quiet and cooperative nature should not be confused with weakness -- though unlikely to buck the system, he recognizes that his role is to protect the Army and the nation. MOON