NEPAL: MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR UML-LED GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000420 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR UML-LED GOVERNMENT REF: A. KATHMANDU 414 ¶B. KATHMANDU 398 Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On May 17 the Madhesi People's Rights Forum announced it would support Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist and Nepali Congress efforts to form a new government under the leadership of Madhav Kumar Nepal, bringing the coalition support over the majority threshold. Election of the Prime Minister has not yet been scheduled and negotiations about cabinet portfolios are ongoing. For now, the Maoists are continuing to prevent the Parliament from meeting to form a new Nepali government. A Majority for UML-Led Government -------------- ¶2. (U) The efforts of the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) and Nepali Congress (NC) to form a new government under the leadership of former UML chief Madhav Kumar Nepal received a critical boost on May 17 when the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) announced it would back the UML-NC coalition. Without the MPRF's backing, the UML-led coalition had been stuck below the 301 votes necessary to form a government. (Note: The Constituent Assembly consists of 601 members; under the interim constitution, election of a new prime minister requires the support of a majority of the membership.) After the NC (114 seats) and UML (108 seats),the MPRF (53) would be the third-largest party in the coalition. The coalition has garnered the support of 20 parties and the Assembly's two independents -- all but the Maoists and three minor parties. Next steps -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Although the Maoists have been preventing the Constituent Assembly (CA) from functioning in its legislative capacity since PM Dahal resigned on May 4, top Maoist leaders had previously announced they would halt their protests once the UML and NC established they had the support of a majority of MPs. The Maoist central committee meeting May 18 however, reportedly decided to continue their protests and disruptions until President Yadav's May 3 move to reinstate Nepal Army chief General Katawal is overturned. At close of business on May 18, CA Chairman Nemwang had not yet scheduled the election of the Prime Minister. Maoists disrupted the legislative session scheduled for May 18. Negotiations about which parties will receive which ministries, and who will fill those positions are still in the early stages. Embassy sources indicate election of the Prime Minister is likely to take place before the full cabinet is agreed upon. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Although the UML-NC-MPRF coalition apparently now has the votes with other smaller parties to replace the Maoist-led government, internal and intra-party divisions will make the cabinet formation process a difficult one. Finding appropriate positions for politicians from twenty parties will be a challenge. There is still no guarantee that the new coalition will take over. Some way still has to be found to persuade the Maoists to stop disrupting the CA long enough to let the new government form. A last-minute deal to bring the Maoists into the government cannot be ruled out either. According to media reports, Maoist CA Member and Foreign Department Head CP Gajurel's statements at a rally on May 17 in Nepalgunj alleged "the President's unconstitutional move was directed by Delhi and Washington." If the Maoists do end up going into opposition, their protests, which have been largely peaceful so far, could turn violent. POWELL