NEPAL: MPRF MAKES A PLAY TO HEAD THE NEW GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000414 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MPRF MAKES A PLAY TO HEAD THE NEW GOVERNMENT REF: A. KATHMANDU 399 ¶B. KATHMANDU 398 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires ad interim Randy W. Berry. Reasons 1. 4 (b/d) Madhesi People's Rights Forum Wants To Lead -------------- ¶1. (C) At close of business May 15, the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) was making a play to head a new Nepali government in coalition with the Maoists and several smaller parties. MPRF Member of Parliament Abishek Shah told Emboff May 15 that the Maoist leadership had agreed to permit the MPRF to head the next government. When pressed why the largest party would forego its own interest in leading the government in favor of the fourth-largest, Shah said it was to prevent a Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML)-led coalition with the Nepali Congress (and without the Maoists) from taking shape. The MPRF agreed after a marathon Central Committee session on May 14 to this strategy which party chairman (and caretaker Foreign Minister) Upendra Yadav endorsed. Shah said that even those in the party who preferred to form a coalition with the UML and NC were happy to join with the Maoists if the MPRF got the Prime Ministership and the power that came with it. Shah added that, by his calculation, the MPRF-Maoist coalition already had more than the 301 votes required to elect a PM of their choosing in a parliamentary vote. He thought, however, that it would take another seven days to finalize the deal. The goal was to persuade the other significant Madhesi parties -- Terai Madhes Democratic Party and Sadbhavana Party -- to join as well. Comment -------------- ¶2. (C) It is still too soon to know if the MRPF's ambitions will come to fruition. The UML has rallied behind its former General Secretary, Madhav Kumar Nepal, and NC President G.P. Koirala has repeatedly publicly endorsed M.K. Nepal as NC's candidate to be the next PM, as have the leaders of a number of smaller parties. On May 14, perhaps in a sign that the hopes of a UML-NC-MPRF combine were fading, UML President Jhalanath Khanal spoke at a function in Kathmandu about the possibility of a national unity government with the Maoists. Publicly, at least, the Maoists have yet to endorse Upendra Yadav as Nepal's next Prime Minister. Instead, they have reiterated their desire to lead the next government, declined to join a UML-led coalition, and even talked about going into opposition. PM Dahal is said by some to be reaching out privately to Koirala, and even offering to make him President, in an effort to prevent a solid UML-NC tie-up. Most observers expect the negotiations and horse-trading to continue. There is plenty of room still for surprises. BERRY