NEPAL: PARTIES CONTINUE TALKS OVER ARMY CHIEF,

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000345 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL PTER NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: PARTIES CONTINUE TALKS OVER ARMY CHIEF, POSSIBLE CABINET SHUFFLE REF: A. KATHMANDU 339 ¶B. NEW DELHI 815 ¶C. KATHMANDU 335 ¶D. KATHMANDU 329 ¶E. KATHMANDU 325 ¶F. KATHMANDU 320 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Randy W. Berry. Reasons 1.4 (b/ d) More Talks, No Action -------------- ¶1. (C) As of close of business April 29, ongoing efforts by Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Dahal to persuade the leaders of the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) and coalition partner Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) to agree to the removal of Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Rookmangud Katawal had not succeeded. According to a participant, NC spokesman Arjun Narsingh K.C., at an early morning meeting on April 29, the PM and NC senior leaders also rejected the proposal by UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal to have the COAS step down along with his deputy, Chief of Staff, Lt. General Kul Khadka, and Maoist Defense Minister Ram Thapa. K.C. said that the NC Central Committee had voted April 28 against the NC joining the governing coalition. As a result, even if former Prime Minister G.P. Koirala decided to accept the Maoist offer to reshuffle the cabinet and give the NC the Defense Ministry and other cabinet positions, Koirala would have to persuade his party's Central Committee to reverse its decision. K.C. claimed Koirala would find that a very hard sell. Katawal's Removal Still Possible -------------- ¶2. (C) K.C. explained that President Yadav, as supreme commander of the Nepal Army, would have few options if the Maoists decided to take advantage of their majority in the cabinet to vote to remove the COAS. Yadav could hold the order for a few days and, possibly, seek an opinion from the Supreme Court, but in the end, he would probably have to give his assent. Senior UML leader Bharat Mohan Adhikari told Emboff April 28 that the Maoists' decision to try to force through Katawal's removal at this time made no sense -- unless their goal was to disrupt the peace process and divide the parties and the Nepal Army. He did not believe the Maoist argument that this was simply a matter of civilian supremacy. Indian Political Counselor Shambu Kumaran opined April 28 that Katawal would likely be removed by May 1, Labor Day. (Note: The Indian Ambassador expected the Army chief to be fired the week of April 20.) Comment -------------- ¶3. (C) Prime Minister Dahal is probably the only person who truly knows if and when Katawal will be removed. With Maoists already massing in KATHMANDU for a rally on May 1, removal of Katawal by then makes sense as a show of Maoist strength. As reported in other channels, the Nepal Army has directed unit commanders to return to their organizations and remain on stand-by, but no detailed contingency planning orders have been issued. On April 28, shortly before a planned Maoist rally in the capital, orders were given limiting restricting the movement of vehicles outside barracks, perhaps to avoid confrontation with demonstrators. We have seen no other military activity suggesting a coup is imminent or likely. Despite the comments by the NC spokesman, we do not rule out the possibility of a cabinet shuffle that would bring NC (and perhaps Koirala's daughter Sujata) into the government. Post has redoubled its security measures in light of what look to be uncertain days ahead. POWELL