Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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09KATHMANDU1037 | 2009-11-17 12:42:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Kathmandu |
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001037 |
1. (C) Summary: Even as the Maoists threaten new protests, optimism is growing that Nepal's political parties may reach agreement on a deal that will bring the Maoists back into government. Maoist leader Prachanda's meeting in Singapore with senior (and ailing) Nepali politician G.P. Koirala fueled speculation that a deal may be imminent. However, reports of "imminent" political deals in Nepal are frequent, and frequently wrong. Post will continue to press key leaders to resolve the political differences, so the parties can resume the important work of governing, drafting a new constitution, and concluding the peace process. End Summary. Maoist Demands, Threats -------------------------- 2. (C) The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist threatened a new round of "mass action" beginning November 20 unless their political demands are met. The Maoists continue to block parliament from functioning -- as they have since August 2009 -- although the party has allowed legislators to meet to draft the new constitution. The lack of parliamentary approval for the budget is creating strains on the Government of Nepal's ability to function, as they have used up the existing authority to fund ongoing operations. 3. (C) The Maoist demands have varied from the reasonable to the impossible, with various party leaders making contradictory statements the same day. Some observers contend that the mixed messaging is part of a coordinated strategy, although we tend to believe it reflects confusion and internal divisions. Maoist demands have focused on two issues, the first largely a figleaf for the second: -- "Civilian supremacy": The Maoists are demanding a debate and vote in parliament on the President Ram Baran Yadav's May 2009 move to overturn the decision of then-Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal (aka Prachanda) to fire Chief of the Army Staff Katawal. Prachanda resigned in protest, a clumsy political move that the Maoists have likely come to regret. The Maoists continue to claim that the President's decision was unconstitutional, and believe a parliamentary vote on the President's action would undermine the legitimacy of the current government and lay the groundwork for their return to power. Home Minister Bhim Rawal told Charge November 12 that the governing coalition and Maoists had essentially reached agreement on the text of a parliamentary "civilian supremacy" motion, before the Maoists presented new demands. -- Return to Power: As the parties neared consensus on civilian supremacy in late October, Maoist leaders began demanding that they, as the party with the largest numbers of seats in parliament, lead the government. Prachanda himself has generally been less explicit, suggesting that the Maoists must take part in, but need not lead, the government. Prime Minister Nepal and others have flatly rejected the demand, suggesting that the Maoists bring a "no confidence" motion in parliament, which presumably the 21-party coalition government would defeat. G.P. Koirala to Singapore, Prachanda Follows -------------------------- 4. (C) With Maoist protests looming, the Chairman of the Nepali Congress party, G.P. Koirala, flew to Singapore on November 15 for medical treatment. While he has lost some power within his party, the ailing 86-year-old Koirala remains a key figure in Nepali politics, with significant symbolic power. On November 16, Maoist Chairman Prachanda and advisor Krishna Bahadur Mahara also took a last minute visit to Singapore, leading many to speculate that Prachanda and Koirala will enter into political negotiations. In a November 17 meeting with Charge, UNMIN head Karin Landgren speculated that the two are meeting in Singapore to avoid Indian interference, whereas Kathmandu Post Editor Akhilesh Upadhyay told EmbOffs that India is engineering the Singapore meeting. KATHMANDU 00001037 002 OF 002 Optimism about Possible Deal -------------------------- 5. (C) Prachanda's trip to Singapore has fueled optimism in Kathmandu that the parties may soon reach a political agreement that will bring the Maoists back in government. Before departing on his trip, Maoist leader Prachanda told UNMIN head Landgren that he was "confident" they will "find a way out." Home Minister Rawal also admitted to Landgren that the Maoists "have to be involved" and that consensus was possible. Embassy sources report that mid-level leaders of the three major parties, the Maoists, Nepali Congress, and Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML), have been meeting over the last few days to attempt to find common ground. Cautionary Note - State of Emergency? -------------------------- 6. (C) UNMIN lead Landgren also said that two senior Nepali Congress leaders, Ram Chandra Paudel and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, as well as UML party head Jhalanath Khanal, separately suggested that the lack of budget approval could provide a basis to declare an "economic state of emergency" that would lead to presidential rule. In Landgren's view, this would be "catastrophic" to the peace process, and she sharply cautioned the leaders against such a move. Comment: Keep Pressure On -------------------------- 7. (C) We're encouraged by the recent flurry of political activity. However, Nepali politicians are notorious for meeting and talking, but achieving little. We will continue to work with the UN and like-minded countries to keep the pressure on all the political parties. The ongoing fight over short-term power is an unfortunate, if predictable, distraction from the core tasks of drafting a new constitution and concluding the peace process. BERRY |