UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE (JULY 15,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000771 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/19 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MOPS MARR UG CG SU SUBJECT: UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE (JULY 15, 2009) REF: KAMPALA 687 Classified By: Acting P/E Chief Jarahn Hillsman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: This cable is a periodic update on the regional military operation against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) known as Operation Rudia II. This report is not meant to provide an overarching narrative or polished analysis of the operation, but rather offers spot information gleaned in Uganda only, from credible U.S. Mission sources here. We recognize the regional scope of the operation and the fact that our sources may be limited in their knowledge and perspective on Rudia II. End Summary. - - - - - - - - MILITARY UPDATE - - - - - - - - ¶2. (S NF) The Uganda Peoples' Defense Forces (UPDF) continues to demonstrate steady, incremental progress in tracking and destroying small LRA elements. According to reporting from the Kampala Combined Intelligence Fusion Cell (KCIFC),the UPDF has killed a total of 151 LRA rebels, including several senior officers, captured 27 rebels and 98 weapons, and rescued 218 abductees since the operation launched in December 2008. Most recently, the UPDF killed eight LRA rebels, captured one LRA rebel, rescued two abductees, and recovered eight weapons and 75 rounds of ammunition in various engagements with the LRA since June 27. The KCIFC estimates that 300-350 LRA combatants remain at large, operating in relatively small, dispersed groups over a broad swath of northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Since June 27, the UPDF has been tracking and engaging a high value target group, likely led by Okot Odhiambo, operating southwest of Sukawe, DRC, about 20 kilometers south of the DRC-Central African Republic (CAR) border. LRA elements have crossed the border into the CAR, but it is unclear if the UPDF has actually attacked LRA elements there. The UPDF has engaged with what the KCIFC assesses is part of Joseph Kony's group on or about July 12 northwest of Bonguru, DRC, and that local self-defense forces probably engaged another part of Kony's group later that same day near Bitima, DRC. ¶3. (S NF) On July 8, the UPDF engaged with a group believed to be under the command of Okot Odek near Faradje, DRC. After weeks of uncertainty, recent locational information regarding LRA Eastern Command leaders Charles Arop and Okot Odek leads us to believe the Eastern Command group is still operating near Faradje. The UPDF also recovered one satellite phone during a July 14 engagement in the same area. ¶4. (S NF) On July 11, local media reported that the LRA abducted 80 people during a raid on the remote village of Bayule in northeast DRC. UPDF sources believe this number is high, and estimate that 20-40 people were actually abducted based on trails left by LRA and abductees. - - - - - - - - - - - POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Local media continue to feed fears of increased activities by newly-formed rebel groups in northern Uganda, despite official statements from National Intelligence Coordinator General David Tinyefuza that talk of the new rebel group, the Uganda People's Front (UPF, also known as the Popular Patriotic Front, or PPF) is "utter rubbish." Tinyefuza traveled to northern districts to investigate allegations of subversive rebel activities by northern opposition Members of Parliament (MPs). UPDF Spokesman Felix Kulayigye was one of the most outspoken critics of these opposition leaders, including Norbert Mao, the Gulu District chairman and probable presidential candidate for the Democratic Party in the upcoming 2011 elections. Kulayigye and others had accused Mao of being an accomplice and advisor to the UPF after a copy of the group's manifesto was found on Mao's personal flash drive, which was reportedly lost at a Kampala hotel and subsequently recovered by the government. Kulayigye accused Mao of writing the paper and threatened to arrest him. ¶6. (SBU) Eleven other suspects, including Pader-based journalist Patrick Otim, were arrested for their alleged involvement in subversive activities and are reportedly being held at Luzira Prison. On July 3, Tinyefuza's investigation concluded that the alleged rebel activity "posed no threat to national security." President Museveni subsequently ordered the UPDF to stop arresting suspected rebel collaborators and KAMPALA 00000771 002 OF 002 assured northern parliamentary leaders that they would not be arrested for rebel activities. Defense Minister Amama Mbabazi insisted that the UPF group exists in his July 9 statement to Parliament, but acknowledged that the government has not found any evidence tying northern MPs to the group. Opposition MP and Acholi Parliamentary Group Vice Chairman Reagan Okumu argues that the pursuit of rebel sympathizers is a government attempt to silence opposition leaders in advance of the 2011 elections. ¶7. (C) Military Intelligence Chief James Mugira confirmed to the DAO that recent UPDF troop deployments along the DRC border are routine movements. These movements do not indicate an impending threat of a rebel attack across the DRC border, as local media erroneously reported on July 13. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - EU Representative to Push for More Support at Home - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) The Charge met with European Union (EU) Special Representative for LRA Affected Areas Ambassador Roeland Van de Geer on July 15 at the latter,s request. Van de Geer met with UPDF Chief of Defense Forces General Aronda Nyakairima, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Henry Okello Oryem, northern Parliamentarians, and MONUC representatives during his Kampala visit. He asked the Charge for an update on UPDF efforts to kill or capture Joseph Kony, and sought increased U.S. support for the UN Mission in DRC (known by its French acronym MONUC). Van de Geer plans to pitch a substantial support package for MONUC to the EU on July 22, and seeks support from France, the Netherlands, the UK, and the United States. Assistance would strengthen MONUC's capacity to protect civilian populations in LRA-affected areas by providing additional transportation and communications equipment to MONUC; improving contact with the Diaspora to promote defections; increasing MONUC's participation in information campaigns; and encouraging greater action against Diaspora elements that continue to support the LRA. - - - - - - - - - - - - HUMANITARIAN SITUATION - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Increasing LRA attacks in the Orientale Province of DRC continue to provoke displacement and disrupt humanitarian assistance efforts in the Bas-Uele and Haut-Uele districts. The UN Office of the Coordinator for Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA) in Bunia reports 238,097 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Bas-Uele and Haut-Uele as of June 30, which represents an increase of 9,880 over May figures. The majority of the IDP population is in the Haut-Uele district, with 123,059 concentrated in the Dungu area and an additional 46,826 in the Faradje area. Insecurity continues to impede humanitarian access, leaving approximately 55 percent of the total IDP caseload with no assistance. The World Food Program (WFP) is responding with targeted air drops. OCHA Senior Humanitarian Affairs Officer and Head of Office in Orientale Province, Jean-Charles Dupin, told Poloff that the first air drops are scheduled to begin in Niangara in the next several days. - - - - Comment - - - - ¶10. (C) The commotion over the arrests and accusations against northern opposition MPs seem to have subsided. We believe the media continue to overinflate the UPF threat, but will continue to monitor developments. Otherwise, the UPDF continues to make slow but steady progress militarily against the LRA. HOOVER