UGANDAN REBEL GROUP: MAKING MOUNTAINS OUT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L KAMPALA 000687 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/19 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM UG SUBJECT: UGANDAN REBEL GROUP: MAKING MOUNTAINS OUT OF MOLEHILLS REF: A. KAMPALA 679 ¶B. KAMPALA 595 ¶C. KAMPALA 587 Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Ugandan media attention to the arrests of low-level participants in a nascent rebel group in northern Uganda continues to spin out of control, more an indication of lack of government coordination and poison politics than any real threat to national security. Government officials continue to assure us that Ugandan diaspora based in Kenya, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom remain their primary target, not locally-based politicians. However, the independent media cannot resist stirring the proverbial pot and the Government, now in reactive mode, is taking the bait due to its lack of an overall strategy or strong investigative techniques. We expect this story to continue to take unnecessary twists and turns, largely because the key players distrust each other and are too short-sighted and politicized to take steps to diffuse the confusion. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Post previously reported on the discovery of weapons caches associated with a diaspora-backed nascent rebel group in reftels. The Government learned of the group after picking up one of its low- level operatives for other suspected criminal activities. He confessed to being part of the new group and implicated others. Further interviews resulted in the uncovering of caches of weapons and supplies. As previously reported, the security services had planned to use the low-level participants to publicly "out" various members of the Acholi diaspora for continuing to support the overthrow of the government. The government was forced to charge the participants with treason after the wife of one suspect obtained a court order for him to be produced in court. The government, now off whatever game plan it had, began reacting to press inquiries through its Army Spokesman rather than having a well-thought out public strategy. ¶3. (C) For its part, the press, including the salacious and politically-motivated Red Pepper tabloid, have taken liberty with the facts, playing on the extreme mistrust between the government and northerners to stoke the political angles of the issues. The Government-owned New Vision also joined the fray. One of its reporters, allegedly an employee of the External Security Organization, leaked information linking a prominent Catholic bishop and Gulu District Chairman Norbert Mao to the rebel group. Mao, who had been out of the country for almost a month, arrived in Kampala to see his name linked to the group in the press. Mao decided to use his weekly column to "be above board" on the issue. (Note: The column appeared in the New Vision on June 29. End Note.) He told P/E Chief on June 30 that he had not been contacted by any government or security service official about the alleged plot. He decided to go public with what he knows about the group. He said he may title his next column "There is no room for insurgency in northern Uganda." Mao added that unfortunately other "politicians hide behind politics" and while they oppose armed insurgency, they dislike Museveni to the extent that they would never condemn rebellion. (Note: Mao was referring to the Acholi Parliamentary Group members, which rushed to the press to declare their innocence when they had not been accused of involvement. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Comment: We expect this saga to continue, stoked by media houses, poorly-informed "investigative" reporters, and an uncoordinated government message. The media feeding frenzy, combined with poor coordination within the security service and opportunism, has resulted in the incident to be blown out of proportion for political purposes with no one in control of its path. If past patterns hold, the eleven low-level operatives will pay the price in a lengthy, and unnecessary, court case while political wrangling diverts attention from the original focus of the investigation: the diaspora. Stay tuned. BROWNING