UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION LIGHTNING THUNDER UPDATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000341 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/19 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PREF UG CG SUBJECT: UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION LIGHTNING THUNDER UPDATE (APRIL 3, 2009) REF: KAMPALA 325 Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: This cable is a periodic update on the regional military operation against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) known as Operation Lightning Thunder (OLT). This report is not meant to provide an overarching narrative or polished analysis of OLT, but rather offers spot information gleaned in Uganda only, from credible U.S. Mission sources here. We recognize the regional scope of OLT and the fact that our sources may be limited in their knowledge and perspective on OLT. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - MILITARY SITUATION - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (S NF) Ugandan Chief of Defense Forces Aronda Nyaikirima told the Defense Attache on April 2 that the politics of maintaining the coalition has taken precedence over other aspects of OLT, including tactical military operations. Aronda spends a great deal of his time ensuring that the Governments of Southern Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),and Central African Republic remain in a coalition to combat the LRA. Aronda said that the LRA will exploit the situation and escape if any of the four governments falters. In addition, the Ugandan Government believes that the long-term value of regional military cooperation will pay dividends as neighboring countries prove they can work together to eliminate cross border threats. ¶3. (S NF) Realizing the gravity of President Kabila's precarious political position earlier in the year, President Museveni agreed to a change in the face of OLT and to stage a withdrawal of Ugandan troops to help Kabila shore up his position against Speaker of Parliament Vitale Kamerhe. Aronda reported that Uganda had to help Congolese President Kabila because he was about to be impeached for agreeing to joint military operations against negative forces in DRC. If this part of the coalition collapsed, then OLT would have collapsed and the LRA would have survived and recovered. ¶4. (S NF) Uganda's priority on maintaining the coalition at any cost resulted in the premature withdrawal of some Ugandan forces, according to Aronda. He said that some 2,000 Ugandan troops remain in DRC tracking the LRA daily. Other Ugandan forces are across the border in southern Sudan, available on Kabila's orders to re-enter DRC in pursuit of the LRA. The Ugandan presence is designed to allow Kabila to turn up or down the heat on the LRA as needed, according to Aronda. ¶5. (S NF) Coalition maintenance includes monthly meetings at the Chiefs of Defense Forces level and at Heads of State meetings as needed. This week alone, the UPDF hosted the UN Mission in Congo (MONUC) Force Commander General Babacar Gaye and Congolese Army Chief, General Etumba. Gaye met with Aronda on March 28. Congolese Army Chief General Etumba met with Ugandan military officials on March 30. Ugandan Peoples Defense Forces (UPDF) spokesman Felix Kulayigye told us that the UPDF briefed Etumba and the Congolese commander in charge of the operation, Colonel Mudosi, on LRA activity since Phase II of OLT began on March 15. The UPDF briefed Etumba on the upsurge in LRA activity and small-scale attacks on civilians since Phase II began, which appeared to catch Etumba by surprise. The UPDF expects Mudosi to be its primary point of contact for day-to-day military operations. ¶5. (U) In a surprising show of transparency, Minister of Defense Crispus Kiyonga and Aronda briefed the parliamentary Committee on Defense and Internal Affairs on April 2. Kiyonga explained that the military asked for a supplemental allocation in December for OLT and that to date, the operation has cost 35 billion Ugandan shillings (approximately $16.7 million). - - - - - - - - - - - POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) LRA leader Joseph Kony did not call UN Special Envoy for LRA-Affected Areas Joachim Chissano, according to Nuno Tomas, the head of Chissano's office in Kampala. LRA spokesman David Matsanga had traveled to Maputo on March 28 purportedly to link Chissano with Kony directly on the telephone (reftel). Matsanga arrived in Maputo with a new story. Matsanga claimed that Kony had given him fresh KAMPALA 00000341 002 OF 002 instructions. According to Matsanga, there would be no telephone call between Kony and Chissano until there is a temporary cease-fire. After a cease-fire is in place, Kony would then call Chissano to discuss signing of the Final Peace Agreement (FPA). ¶7. (C) Chissano conveyed this message to President Museveni, who said that he would give an answer on a proposed cease-fire in two weeks time. Tomas said that Chissano opposes a cease-fire because Chissano believes that military pressure is necessary on Kony persuade them to sign the peace deal. ¶8. (C) Chissano and Tomas remain highly doubtful of Matsanga's claims to have contact with Kony. Tomas confided that he believes that Matsanga, Justine Labeja, and Michael Anywar (the LRA's former representative to the Cessation of Hostilities Monitoring Team) are speaking for themselves and that they are not talking to Kony. Tomas speculated that the three remaining LRA delegates want a cease-fire in order to remain relevant by throwing Kony a lifeline so that they can try to establish contact with the elusive LRA leader. - - - - - - - - - - - - HUMANITARIAN SITUATION - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Medicines Sans Frontieres-Switzerland's (MSF) Mission Chief Laurence Gaubert met with Defense Attache and P/E Chief on March 31. MSF pulled its workers out of Banda in the wake of the LRA attack on March 15. MSF-Switzerland has two teams remaining in DRC, one in Bili and a second in Arywawa, near Aru. MSF is reviewing the security situation and is deciding whether or not to pull out the team in Bili, but if it pulls out, MSF wants to do so in an orderly fashion. Gaubert said that MSF could not confirm rumors of an Antonov making airdrops in Banda. She reported that an Antonov could not land on the airstrip. BROWNING