UGANDA/DRC/SUDAN: UN SPECIAL ENVOY DISCUSSES OLT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000289 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! retransmitting all sections of this cable !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/19 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM UG CG SUBJECT: UGANDA/DRC/SUDAN: UN SPECIAL ENVOY DISCUSSES OLT WITH MUSEVENI KAMPALA 00000289 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Museveni and UN Special Envoy for LRA-Affected Areas Joachim Chissano discussed the ongoing military operations against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) on March 16. Chissano also met with Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) President Salva Kiir, who was in Kampala on March 12-13. Chissano described the Ugandan "withdrawal" in veiled terms, but his understanding is that some Ugandan troops remain in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). He briefed donors on LRA spokesman David Matsanga's proposal for a cease-fire and stakeholder's conference. Chissano insisted that LRA leader Joseph Kony must call him directly and maintain sustained contact to be taken seriously. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CHISSANO RELAYS MATSANGA'S PROPOSAL TO DONORS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) UN Special Envoy Chissano visited Kampala based on an invitation he received from Museveni on March 3. Museveni reportedly invited Chissano to be briefed on OLT because Museveni thought the UN Special Envoy might be needed to talk to Kabila about the continuation of the military operation. After his meeting with President Museveni, Chissano briefed the donors on March 16. Chissano reported that Museveni was pleased with the outcome of Operation Lightning Thunder (OLT) even if it was not "a spectacular success." Museveni said that the objective was to deny Kony comfort, which OLT has done, and to harass the LRA into signing the peace agreement. Museveni told Chissano that Kabila explained his domestic problems, particularly his wrangling to impeach the Speaker of Parliament, Vitale Kamerhe. Museveni told Chissano that he agreed to help Kabila's public image by staging a withdrawal of forces. Museveni said that OLT would end when/if the LRA assembles at Rikwangba. ¶3. (SBU) Chissano said he briefed Museveni on Matsanga's proposal to revive the peace process, which included a cease-fire, assembly, and stakeholder's meeting. Chissano reported that he had told Matsanga that the proposal is too expensive and not necessary. Kony insists, according to Matsanga, that a battalion of troops from the four guarantor countries provide protection for the LRA. (Note: This is an old proposal for 200 troops each from South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique to serve as a protection force for Kony and the LRA in the assembly area. Matsanga said that troops from the fifth observer country, DRC, were unacceptable due to their participation in OLT. End Note.) ¶4. (SBU) Chissano told the donors that the GOSS still agreed to host the LRA assembly area and to allow Ugandan troops to remain. (Note: Chissano spoke with GOSS President Salva Kiir, who also was in Kampala on March 12 and 13. End note.) Chissano said that if the GOSS agreed to this arrangement in principle, then an approach would be made to donors to fund the costs and logistics of a stakeholder's conference as a confidence-building mechanism. ¶5. (SBU) Museveni told Chissano that there would be no cease-fire, but that if Kony followed steps laid out by Chissano, the Government would go along. Chissano also informed Museveni that he made it clear to Matsanga that he required direct discussions with Kony. Chissano also urged Matsanga that Kony speak directly to Museveni. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CHISSANO SPEAKS ON UGANDAN "WITHDRAWAL" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) In a private meeting on March 16, Chissano told Ambassador Browning and P/E Chief that the Ugandans are not pulling out of DRC, but the "withdrawal" was designed to make it look that way. (Note: Chissano and his assistant, Nuno Tomas, made quotation mark hand gestures whenever they mentioned the Ugandan withdrawal. Chissano's information came from Museveni and MONUC sources, according to Tomas. End Note.) Chissano stated that the military operations within the DRC are now under Congolese control. Tomas has since told us that up to 3,000 Ugandan troops would remain in so-called "intelligence and reconnaissance squads." ¶7. (C) On March 18, Tomas told P/E Chief that Museveni and Chissano spoke a second time via telephone. Both Chissano and Tomas were comfortable with the information that they received from Museveni, Kiir, and MONUC regarding the continuation of the military operation. Museveni told Chissano that he (Museveni) was satisfied with his KAMPALA 00000289 002 OF 002 arrangement with Kabila regarding the continuation of OLT. Therefore, Museveni told Chissano it would not be necessary for Chissano to call and lobby Kabila as planned. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MORE ON MATSANGA'S MANUEVERING - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) Matsanga calls Chissano and Tomas incessantly. Chissano wondered how much longer he should "entertain" Matsanga. Chissano said that Matsanga claims that Kony is not in DRC but in southern Sudan. He knows this because Kony is using a Zain cellphone number. Matsanga claimed to have talked to Kony at 0400 on March 15 and that he has spoken to Kony signaler Michael Epedu. Matsanga then said that Kony is so afraid of being detected that he will not call Chissano directly. The call has to come from Kony to Matsanga and then Matsanga will hand Chissano the telephone (as he did at the airport on November 5 in advance of the stakeholder's meeting.) Matsanga proposed that he travel to Maputo and then put Chissano on the telephone with Kony. ¶9. (SBU) Kony allegedly gave Matsanga until March 10 to get Chissano to hold a stakeholder's conference in Dar es Salaam to establish a ceasefire and assembly at Owiny Kibul. Matsanga said that Kony extended the deadline to March 18. Kony allegedly wants a protection battalion of 200 troops each from Tanzania, Kenya, South Africa, and Mozambique to escort him to the former assembly area at Owiny Kibul. (Note: This assembly area is closer to the Ugandan border and the LRA rejected it because it was surrounded by Ugandan troops. Rikwangba became the only assembly area. End Note.) Chissano told Matsanga that there was no need for a stakeholder's conference for Kony to assemble because there were provisions for that in the operation. - - - - - - - - - - - OLT PROGRESS REPORT - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Chissano asked Ambassador Browning for his assessment of OLT. The Ambassador described the LRA as being disrupted, less coordinated, and lacking in food and supplies. In addition, he said that there are almost daily encounters in which the LRA loses personnel and equipment as the UPDF hunts them down. Chissano described this dynamic as good progress and noted that the UPDF needed to keep Kony on the run in the same manner as the Angolans hunted Jonas Savimbi until they killed him. - - - - COMMENT - - - - ¶11. (C) We fear that Chissano's meeting with the donors may have left the wrong impression that there was hope for a revived peace process. He told us privately that he keeps confidential some information that Museveni tells him and must maintain a delicate balance with the donors. We are concerned that some of the donors, who are starved for information and desperate to be players, may misinterpret his willingness to listen to Matsanga as support for revived talks. We also expressed our concern that Matsanga's machinations could gain traction, given his excellent access to the international press. We do not believe Matsanga has the level of access to Kony he claims he does, but it is worth watching him closely to find out who is behind him. BROWNING