UGANDAN CABINET RESHUFFLE SETTING STAGE FOR 2011

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000185 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM UG SUBJECT: UGANDAN CABINET RESHUFFLE SETTING STAGE FOR 2011 REF: A. 08 KAMPALA 1484 B. 08 KAMPALA 1170 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni told audiences in the opposition stronghold of West Nile that he would not reward areas that voted against him as he announced his new cabinet on February 16. There were few significant changes, with old timers and south-westerners dominating the cabinet. Museveni's apparent criteria were: rewarding loyalists, removing National Resistance Movement (NRM) members without a political base, and penalizing those who opposed Security Minister Amama Mbabazi during the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) corruption scandal. Finance Minister Ezra Suruma was demoted to Special Advisor for Finance at the Presidency. The appointment of First Lady Janet Museveni as the Minister of State for Karamoja Affairs has raised many eyebrows. The President's younger brother, Salim Saleh, was dropped from Microfinance for health reasons. The most important vacant post, Internal Affairs, was filled with aged and ineffective Kivunda Kivejinja, a sign that Museveni does not want a powerful, independent minister in a post that controls the security apparatus for the upcoming elections. Pundits describe the cabinet reshuffle as putting in place ministers with "no conscience" who will be needed to fight a long, hard, and dirty campaign to win in 2011. Unfortunately, the new cabinet comes at the expense of improved government efficiency and effectiveness. End Summary. -------------- New Cabinet Announced -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On February 16, President Museveni announced a new cabinet after a year of speculation. The most prominent new face is that of First Lady Janet Kataha Museveni, appointed as Minister of State for Karamoja. The ministerial post gives Janet Museveni access to more resources and more perks, but also may have been made to put her in charge of an intractable problem, thereby weakening her growing popularity. (Note: The First Couple's frosty relations are no secret in Kampala. End Note.) Other new faces in the new cabinet include former National Resistance Movement (NRM) Chief Whip, Labwoni Matsiko Kabakumba as Minister of State for Information and National Guidance, Uganda People's Defense Force (UPDF) Major General Jeje Odongo as Minister of State for Defense, and Aggrey Awori, one of Museveni's opponents who recently defected to the ruling party. Awori was appointed Minister of Communications and ICT despite having no experience in the field. ¶3. (U) The cabinet retained 60 old faces, including Vice President Gilbert Bukenya; Prime Minister Apolo Nsibambi and First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for East African Affairs, Eriya Kategaya. Throughout 2008, it was rumored that Nsibambi, a prostate cancer survivor, would retire. However, with the re-introduction of the Land Bill Amendments to Parliament, the President reportedly wanted Nsibambi, an ethnic Muganda, to remain in place to help negotiate with the Buganda Kingdom, which opposes the amendments. Other ruling party stalwarts remain, including Mbabazi, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sam Kutesa, and Minister of Defense Crispus Kiyonga. -------------- Loyalty First -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Museveni "put loyalty first" when naming the new cabinet, according to Presidency officials. The real winners in the reshuffle were supporters of NRM General Secretary Amama Mbabazi, particularly his sister-in-law Hope Mwesigye, who campaigned tirelessly on his behalf during the NSSF saga. A die-hard party mobilizer in recent by-election, Mwesigye was named Minister of Agriculture despite having no experience or background for the position. Another beneficiary was former Minister for General Duties, Adolf Mwesige, the author of the Parliamentary minority report that spared Mbabazi and Suruma from impeachment. During the investigation, Museveni came to believe that the attacks against Mbabazi and Suruma were aimed at undermining Museveni and the ruling party (ref A). Museveni decided to take steps to preserve Mbabazi and other loyalists and intervened to end the corruption investigation in order to "save the party". ¶5. (SBU) Suruma, lost his post as Minister for Finance after the publicly embarrassing Temangalo land sale to the NSSF allegedly to save his and Mbabazi's bank. Suruma tried to resign twice in 2008, but Museveni refused his resignation because it would make Mbabazi look guilty. Suruma also provided the President with high economic growth statistics (9%) that later proved to be incorrect, according to an Mbabazi insider. In addition, Museveni was frustrated that he had publicly painted a stronger picture of Uganda's economic situation based on data provided by the Ministry of Finance when there were increasingly negative economic indicators. Suruma was made a Special Advisor on Finance and Economic Planning, a meaningless title for a position with no influence. ¶6. (U) Critics within the NRM or those who opposed Mbabazi, such as General Kahinda Otafiire, Minister of Local Government, were the KAMPALA 00000185 002 OF 003 biggest losers. Otafiire said he was "demoted" to Minister of Trade and Industry for opposing Mbabazi and accused Museveni of picking sides in the struggle between historical members of the party. The outspoken minister also never failed to condemn corruption within the ruling party and opposed a sweetheart development deal for cronies of the President. Otafiire also may have wielded too much power within Kampala, virtually running the Uganda Transport Association (UTODA),whose strikes have the capacity to shut down Kampala on a moment's notice. -------------- Technocrats Out, Loyal Faces In -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Some senior NRM personalities in the previous cabinet lost their ministerial posts, but were retained as presidential advisors and ambassadors. These posts are considered demotions and have little or no role in policymaking. Technically competent ministers in ministries of growing importance to the economy, ICT and Energy, were replaced with less capable personalities. This is of concern because ICT, Energy, and Finance ministries are sources of growing revenue and patronage opportunities. Former Minister for Communications and ICT Ham Mulira lost his ministerial portfolio largely because he did not have an electoral constituency. Mulira single-handedly built a new ministry from the ground up and worked tirelessly to improve Uganda's communications infrastructure. He was made a Senior Advisor on ICT. ¶8. (SBU) Minister of Energy Daudi Migereko was moved to be the NRM's Chief Whip in Parliament. He is popular among other parliamentarians, but also cannot deliver an electoral constituency. Migereko rescued the country from the serious power shortages created by the policies of his predecessor, Syda Bbumba. However, clashes between Migereko and his powerful and corrupt Permanent Secretary may have done him in. Migereko opposed several project tenders involving Janet Museveni and Sam Kutesa's firm, Aggrekko. We do not expect the new Energy Minister, Hillary Onek, to be as straight forward as Migereko. Onek was selected because he is a northerner and the new oil finds in Amuru District in northern Uganda are already generating conflict over land ownership in the area. Onek's loyalty will be needed by the regime and its cronies as oil exploration promises to bring increased opportunities for corrupt contracts. ¶9. (SBU) Bbumba was moved from the Ministry of Energy to Gender, Labor, and Social Development in 2006, where she was less dangerous, but just as ineffective. The Ministry languished during her tenure, largely because she allowed its budget to be plundered to pay for the Commonwealth Heads of State Government meeting in 2007 and other regime needs. Bbumba, who has no apparent substantive economic experience but is the wife of a strong party supporter, was moved to Finance. Minister of Trade Janat Mukwaya's lackluster performance landed her in the Prime Minister's Office as Minister of General Duties. Mukwaya fought alongside Museveni during the bush war and will not likely be dropped from any cabinet, regardless of her performance. ¶10. (SBU) A notable change is the movement of Museveni's younger brother, Salim Saleh, from Microfinance. He was appointed as a Senior Advisor on Defense. Saleh is seriously ill, requiring taxing monthly treatments that prevent him from promoting "Prosperity For All," the government's microfinance program to extend patronage to curry favor with voters. The program was failing largely because Saleh could not travel and do grassroots mobilizing. Former Minister of State for Defense Ruth Nankabirwa will be in charge of Microfinance with former Vice President, Specioza Kazibwe, an ethnic Musoga, serving as a senior advisor. The Musoga generally vote NRM and the regime is intent on firming up its support in the east. Former Minister of State for Lands Kasirivu Atwooki was demoted to a Special Advisor on Land Matters. He reportedly did not do enough public sensitization to build support for the Land Bill amendments. Opposition to the bill continues to be high, making it difficult for Museveni to follow through on previous and future campaign promises of land for investors and campaign contributors. -------------- Vacant Positions Filled -------------- ¶11. (U) President Museveni appointed Kirunda Kivejinja to the post of Minister for Internal Affairs to replace Ruhakana Rugunda, who was appointed Uganda's Representative to the United Nations in December. Internal Affairs is a critical post in the run-up to the 2011 elections because it oversees the police, and serves as the Chair of the National Security Committee. Kivejinja lost his parliamentary seat after a court found significant electoral irregularities had occurred. He then lost the by-election. In his previous position as Minister of Information, he called together the independent media houses in late 2007 and warned them not to print stories critical of the First Family, corruption, or national security. KAMPALA 00000185 003 OF 003 ¶12. (U) Alarmingly, Rugunda's departure means there is no historical member of the NRM with enough independence and public credibility to take a principled stand on issues of rule of law. Rugunda, to his credit, stood up to some of the hardliners such as Security Czar David Tinyefuza, on arbitrary arrests and detentions of parliamentarians and opposition leaders. Kivejinja, who once resigned before being censored by Parliament, does not have the backbone, the constituency, or the allies in the security forces to do so. Kivejinja is unlikely to stand up to Museveni, who this weekend told West Nile residents that "if you vote for Besigye, you will have voted for a civil war. It is not a joking matter but a serious thing that you vote for NRM." Museveni also told audiences that if they voted for the opposition, they would receive no development assistance from the government. ¶13. (U) Former Minister of State for Industry Ephraim Kamuntu was appointed Minister of State for Planning to replace Omwony Ojok who passed away in November 2007. A new face, Henry Bagiire, was appointed Minister of State for Agriculture to replace highly popular, Kibirige Sebunya, who died in October 2008. Bagiire said his appointment was due to his agricultural work and his loyalty to the party. -------------- The Race for 2011 is On -------------- ¶14. (SBU) For most Ugandans, the cabinet reshuffle is business as usual: the same bush war notables and westerners dominating the government and key sources of patronage. The new cabinet has eleven full ministers and sixteen junior ministers from the west, the regime's home base, despite being a minority of the population. These moves were made to stop the fracturing of NRM support in the west as well. The northern region, with a majority of the population but a bastion of political opposition, has only two full ministers and seven junior ministers. Eastern Uganda, where the NRM is trying to curry favor, bagged six ministerial and fourteen junior posts and the politically important Central Region received five ministerial posts and eight junior ministers. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶15. (SBU) The cabinet reshuffle follows other moves Museveni has made to strengthen his position for 2011. (ref B). Museveni remains concerned about his diminishing margins of victory over the past three elections, which could force him into an electoral run-off. To avoid this, he needs to shore up support within the NRM in order to change the Constitution to remove the run-off provision. Some of these moves include seeking guidance on the management of one-party states in China and North Korea, creation of a think-tank to re-educate and re-orient party members, military boot camp training for parliamentarians and local government leaders, and reshuffling parliamentary committee assignments to punish independent NRM voices. Moreover, the NRM has pulled out all the stops in by-elections to ensure its candidates won, sending a strong signal to those who want elected office about loyalty. We are concerned about the placement of less competent managers in charge of ministries that could become sources of funds for campaigning or patronage (ICT, Energy, Lands, and Finance). The reshuffle does little to reach out to disaffected Ugandans, opposition strongholds in northern Uganda, or improve government effectiveness. Museveni has sent a clear message to Ugandans that loyalty to him will be rewarded in government representation and development aid. He appears prepared to take any measures necessary to win the next elections in 2011. BROWNING