UGANDA: DAGNE STAFFDEL MEETINGS WITH MFA AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001322 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PTER EAID UG SUBJECT: UGANDA: DAGNE STAFFDEL MEETINGS WITH MFA AND DEFENSE MINISTRY REF: A. KAMPALA 01139 ¶B. KAMPALA 01164 ¶C. KAMPALA 01276 Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Congressional Research Service's Africa Specialist Ted Dagne discussed northern Uganda, the 2011 elections, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA),and Somalia with the Minister for International Affairs and the Minister of Defense on November 9. The Minister for International Affairs described security in the north as "absolutely fantastic," and expressed concern about opposition parties' willingness to use violence during the 2011 elections. Both Ministers said the LRA is nearly finished, and advocated for an expanded and more aggressive African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The Defense Minister said Ugandan forces sent to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to track the LRA are now looking to target the Allied Democratic Front (ADF),apparently without DRC approval. End Summary. -------------- Northern Uganda "Fantastic" -------------- ¶2. (C) State Minister for International Affairs Henry Okello Oryem described security in northern Uganda as "absolutely fantastic" and said that after three years of continued peace, the north is as secure as the rest of Uganda. Noting that he himself hails from the northern town of Kitgum, Oryem said all of the north's 18 districts have submitted their requests for funding to $600 million Peace Recovery and Development Plan (PRDP),and that the Office of the Prime Minister is in the process of disbursing PRDP funds (ref. A). Oryem said authorities encountered problems convincing selected groups of orphans and youth to leave internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, and is working to identify methods of supporting youth who grew up in IDP camps and are unfamiliar with rural village life. He said the north is in desperate need of roads, schools, infrastructure, and electrification. -------------- 2011 Elections - Not so Fantastic -------------- ¶3. (C) Oryem told Dagne and Ambassador Lanier that Uganda is already consumed by early campaigning for 2011, and expressed concerns about opposition willingness to incite violence. Referring to the deadly September 10-12 riots in Kampala that left more than two dozen people dead, Oryem said he recently ;asked the French Ambassador for riot gear and crowd management training, but that the French Ambassador "didn't appreciate" the request. Oryem praised the dialogue between President Museveni and the Buganda King (ref. B),and said problems between the central government and Buganda will soon be resolved. Oryem said elections in East Africa are unpredictable, that no one accepts results, and that poverty and poor education lead to violence. He said he frequently speaks with opposition leaders, encouraging them to craft real policy platforms to win the "hearts and minds" of Ugandans. Oryem complained that opposition leaders are threatening to take up arms in the bush if things don't go their way. "We are fed up with this bush business," he said, noting that northerners, businessmen, property owners and others are no longer interested in violence. -------------- Sudan and the CPA -------------- ¶4. (C) Oryem said Uganda has good relations with Sudan, but urged the U.S. to pressure Khartoum to resolve problems in Darfur and implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). He said Uganda is very concerned that Khartoum is not making an effort to implement the CPA, and that Uganda tried and failed to get officials from Khartoum, Southern Sudan, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to discuss these issues on the margins of the Oct. 19-24 IDP summit in Kampala. Oryem warned that the Sudanese elections and referendum are rapidly approaching, that anything that happens in Southern Sudan directly impacts Uganda, and that the CPA is the only prescription for averting potential war. -------------- KAMPALA 00001322 002 OF 002 Somalia -------------- ¶5. (C) Oryem and Defense Minister Kiyonga reiterated President Museveni's recent statements to Assistant Secretary Carson that Uganda remains committed to AMISOM and desires increased support for an expanded presence in Somalia (ref. C). Oryem said other nations should also send peace keeping forces, and that Uganda wants to change the rules of engagement to enable AMISOM to take offensive action if threatened. He said Uganda is willing to dedicate more troops, and that the international community needs to convince Qatar and others to stop supporting al Shabaab. Minister Kiyonga said Uganda offered to assume the lead role in coordinating the training of Somali troops, and that Uganda is encouraging the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to reach out to citizens by providing government services. Kiyonga said Somali forces require at minimum 6 months of training. He also said AMISOM forces need improved force protection, airport security, and boats to secure Mogadishu port. ¶6. (C) Both men emphasized that the status quo in Somalia is unacceptable to Uganda as the enemy is picking up new adherents while AMISOM is spending more all the time without progress. They noted that the current situation is not sustainable and that Uganda is looking for a longer term policy from the international community that will allow AMISOM to take action to defeat al Shabaab. -------------- DRC, LRA, and ADF -------------- ¶7. (C) Oryem said time is running out for the LRA. He said the LRA is scattered, with no command or control structures, and therefore also hard to find. Defense Minister Kiyonga agreed that the LRA is rapidly nearing its end. Kiyonga said Uganda has received some signals that the ADF is regrouping in DRC along Uganda's south-western border. He said Uganda is just monitoring the ADF for now but that it is a mistake for Uganda and others with an interest in eastern DRC to focus solely on the LRA. Kiyonga asserted that there are other "negative" forces in eastern DRC, such as the ADF, and that Uganda needs a more robust security program vis-a-vis its western neighbor. -------------- Comment: Uganda Moving Beyond the LRA? -------------- ¶8. (C) Okello Oryem and Kiyonga's comments on military related matters closely mirrored those of President Museveni, whose views on increased support for AMISOM and an expanded mandate for peace keeping forces in Mogadishu have clearly filtered down to the Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs. One new twist is Kiyonga's focus on the ADF. Uganda increased the number of troops along its south-western border with DRC in late October in response to rumors - spread by the Resident District Councilor in Kasese - of as many as 400 ADF rebels training in DRC for a possible incursion into Uganda. In a meeting in Kasese on November 9, senior Ugandan and Congolese military officers allegedly hit an impasse over Congolese objections to Uganda's inclusion of a slide on the ADF in a presentation on LRA-related activities in the DRC. According to local press reports, the Congolese delegation protested that the ADF has nothing to do with the LRA and must be discussed separately. As the LRA fades away, Ugandan forces may be fishing for a new reason to keep some residual forces in eastern DRC. LANIER