UGANDA: OPPOSITION PARTIES WARN OF TROUBLE AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001196 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM UG SUBJECT: UGANDA: OPPOSITION PARTIES WARN OF TROUBLE AHEAD REF: A. KAMPALA 00979 ¶B. KAMPALA 01055 Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings with the Mission on October 5, opposition party and National Resistance Movement (NRM) leaders shared their views of the 2011 presidential election process. Opposition parties warned of civil disobedience and renewed violence if the Government of Uganda (GOU) refuses to implement electoral reforms and reconstitute Uganda's partisan Electoral Commission. The NRM's Chief Whip accused opposition parties of making unreasonable demands and said electoral reforms were forthcoming. If the executive branch fails to submit meaningful reforms to Parliament, Uganda may be headed for another, potentially violent, showdown in advance of the February 2011 presidential election. End Summary. -------------- Opposition: Electoral Reform, or Else -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 5, members of the opposition Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) coalition told PolOff and visiting Uganda Desk and DRL Officers that there would be violence if the GOU fails to ratify key electoral reforms. The IPC groups four of Uganda's five main opposition parties - the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC),the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC), the Conservative Party (CP) and the Justice Forum (JEEMA). Uganda's other main opposition party, the Democratic Party (DP),is expected to join in the coming months. In May, the IPC published a 35 page booklet of proposed electoral reforms, many of which were recently submitted to Parliament. The GOU will likely ratify some electoral reforms in February 2010, but these will presumably be drawn not from the IPC recommendations but from competing reforms proposed by Uganda's Electoral Commission. Electoral Commissioners have proposed 18 reforms, including extending their own mandates from seven to ten years. ¶3. (C) The IPC is also demanding changes to the Electoral Commission, which is clearly pro-NRM (ref. A). In September, opposition groups led by the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party submitted court documents challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Commission, alleging that the professional experience and moral character of some of its seven members fall short of constitutional requirements. The Constitutional Court must now review the experience of each Commissioner before ruling. ¶4. (C) Professing no confidence in either the Electoral Commission or the legal system, FDC spokesman and IPC coordinator Wafula Oguttu said the IPC would not participate in any elections supervised by the current Electoral Commission. He said only government reforms could stave off a boycott or civil disobedience by opposition parties. Wafula said the FDC would promote non-violent acts of civil disobedience but warned that such disobedience would be difficult to control. Noting that opposition leaders appealed for calm following the seriously flawed presidential elections of 2001 and 2006, Wafula said the FDC or other opposition parties might not be inclined to issue similar appeals this time around. ¶5. (C) JEEMA, the CP, and the UPC offered similar predictions. JEEMA National Vice Chairman Muhamad Kateregga observed that Ugandans are reconsidering whether violence is a legitimate vehicle for changing the government now that so many people are being "pushed to the wall." The UPC said it too was preparing for the worst, and expressed hope that President Museveni would take measures to reduce tensions if only to preserve his legacy and accomplishments since taking power in 1986. Comparing the September 10-12 riots (ref. B) to electoral violence in Kenya, Wafula also sharply criticized the international community for not condemning the GOU's method of riot control. -------------- -------------- Parliamentary Opposition Leader: Doors are Closing -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) In a separate meeting with Parliamentary opposition leader and senior FDC member Ogenga Latigo at his office in Parliament on October 5, Latigo told the Mission he also expects renewed violence between now and 2011. "If Kenya comes," he said referring to the violence that marred the 2007 presidential election in neighboring Kenya, "it will be KAMPALA 00001196 002 OF 002 very difficult to stop things, more so than in Kenya." Latigo claimed appeals for non-violence from opposition leaders like himself are problematic because President Museveni will not allow the opposition access to the media. He predicted that if tensions between the opposition and NRM remain as they are now, any small spark could trigger a serious situation. ¶7. (C) Like the IPC, Latigo placed the burden of defusing tensions squarely on Museveni and emphasized the need for electoral reform. Latigo said there is currently no dialogue between the opposition and President Museveni. He stressed the importance of finding "a way out" of the present deadlock and noted that outcomes are being locked in as time elapses. He urged the international community to press Museveni to hold meaningful discussions with the opposition and to fast-track opposition supported electoral reforms. NOTE: Latigo was seriously injured in a car accident at 3 am on the morning of Oct. 11 while driving from Gulu to Kampala. The accident killed his driver and a fellow passenger. Latigo is hospitalized but alert and expected to make a full recovery. No foul play was involved. END NOTE. -------------- NRM: Everything's Under Control -------------- ¶8. (C) In another meeting also on October 5, NRM Chief Whip Daoudi Migereko told the Mission that electoral legislation and constitutional amendments are in the works to ensure a free and fair election, but offered no information on the content of his assertion. He said the NRM always prepares for the worst case scenario. (Comment: It is not clear whether the NRM's "worst case" is losing the election or winning an election marred by violence and irregularities. End Comment.) Migereko said the NRM is dedicated to "do everything as openly as possible" and "whatever it takes" to avert violence by offering "hope" to unemployed, restive youth. ¶9. (C) Migereko said no engagement with opposition leaders is ongoing, criticized the opposition for leveling unreasonable demands, and accused opposition leaders of trying to pack the Electoral Commission with opposition party hacks. Responding to rumors in Kampala of plans to alter the Constitution to enable a candidate to win the presidency with a mere plurality rather than an outright majority, Migereko said no discussions of this kind have occurred within the NRM, and noted that such a change is not necessary at this time because the NRM believes Museveni will pass the 50% mark during the first round of voting. -------------- Comment: Trouble Ahead -------------- ¶10. (C) Many Ugandans and members of the international community fear the deadly September 10-12 riots in Kampala were a harbinger for what could occur between now and 2011 if President Museveni and others fail to address the grievances of the political opposition and of the broader and increasingly disillusioned citizenry. The lack of dialogue and hardening of rhetoric between the opposition and the NRM are of serious concern. If the GOU proves unable to identify common ground between opposition demands and what Museveni is willing to accept, more and potentially deeper conflict is likely. LANIER