UGANDA/DRC/CAR/SUDAN: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001078 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/19 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MOPS MARR UG CG SU SUBJECT: UGANDA/DRC/CAR/SUDAN: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE (SEPTEMBER 18, 2009) Classified By: P/E Chief Aaron Sampson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Background: This cable is a periodic update on the regional military operation against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) known as Operation Rudia II. This report is not meant to provide an overarching narrative or polished analysis of the operation, but rather offers spot information gleaned in Uganda from U.S. Mission sources. We recognize the regional scope of the operation and the fact that our sources may be limited in their knowledge and perspective on Rudia II. End background. ¶2. (S) Summary: Since August 28, the Ugandan army has killed 16 LRA rebels, including one senior officer, and captured one LRA rebel in six engagements with the LRA. Recent engagements corroborate earlier assessments that LRA leader Joseph Kony and most of his senior leadership have likely moved out of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and into the Central African Republic (CAR). The Uganda People's Defense Forces (UPDF) publicly announced it was pursuing LRA elements in CAR. The UN Office of the Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA)reported a slight increase in the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in LRA-affected areas of DRC. However the security situation improved overall, as several areas have seen IDP numbers decrease. Congolese refugees are also returning from Sudan. End Summary. - - - - - - - - MILITARY UPDATE - - - - - - - - ¶3. (S) The UPDF continues to lead regional efforts to pursue LRA elements in eastern DRC and in the CAR, in close cooperation with the DRC army (FARDC) and the CAR army (FACA). The Kampala Combined Intelligence Fusion Cell (KCIFC) assesses that the LRA is operating in a degraded mode and is incapable of conducting mass attacks against either opposing forces or civilian targets such as villages. ¶4. (S) Since August 28, the UPDF have killed 16 LRA rebel fighters, captured one LRA rebel, recovered 17 weapons, and recovered 290 rounds of ammunition in six engagements. On September 2, UPDF engaged an LRA element, possibly under the command of Okot Odek, northwest of Nagero, DRC. The UPDF killed three LRA fighters and recovered a substantial weapons and supply cache in the engagement, including several laptop computers, various communications equipment, two pairs of FARDC uniforms, and an unspecified amount of food and medicine. The KCIFC assesses that the success of the September 2 engagement further degraded the operational capability of the LRA group operating near Faradje and likely led by LRA senior officer Charles Arop. ¶5. (S) The UPDF engaged with an LRA element believed to be directly associated with Joseph Kony near Obo, CAR, on September 7. The UDPF killed four LRA fighters in this engagement and recovered soap that may have been intended for Kony. The UPDF assess that the LRA intended to attack Obo for supplies, and view this as further evidence that key elements of the LRA are currently in CAR. In a separate engagement near Ligoua, CAR (approximately 20km from Obo) on the same day, the UPDF captured one unarmed LRA rebel who is being held for questioning. According to the UPDF, recent engagements on September 7 and 8 indicate that LRA elements operating in southeast CAR are in dire need of food and supplies, and may attempt to attack the nearby towns of Obo, Ligoua, Basigbiri, and Zingo in the near term. The UPDF have set up ambush points to counter any attacks. ¶6. (S) On September 13, the UPDF engaged an LRA element near Obo, CAR, killing six LRA fighters, including LTC Santo Alit (#15 on the LRA Officers List),a senior LRA officer and Chief of Finance. Additionally, Alit was reported to have been traveling with MAJ Otto Kalalang, who previously operated in the Faradje area under the command of LTC Charles Arop. The KCIFC assesses that MAJ Kalalang's movement from the Faradje area to SE CAR provides further evidence that the LRA's central area of operations is now in SE CAR and is no longer in the vicinity of the Faradje/Garamba/Main Camp area. However, the UPDF continues to report the presence of LRA splinter groups across eastern DRC. ¶7. (SBU) Army spokesman LTC Felix Kulayigye confirmed to Poloff that September 9 Ugandan press reports claiming the capture of LRA Brigadeer General Mickman Opuk were false. Kulayigye said the "New Vision" article was meant to confirm the recent capture of LRA officer MAJ Okot Attaik, but instead mistakenly identified Opuk. Kulayigye confirmed that Opuk is still at large. KAMPALA 00001078 002 OF 003 ¶8. (S) Poloff and DRMI debriefed recent LRA defector and former battalion commander Maj Joseph Okot Attaik on September 17. Attaik said Kony issued orders in July that all LRA personnel should regroup in CAR. Attaik received the instructions around August 1, when a group of eight LRA combatants including LTC Sam Opio reached his position near the group's former Camp Kiswahili in DRC. Attaik said he expected that there were probably very few LRA left in DRC or Sudan based on Kony's orders. He estimated that there were 400 combatants and 100 noncombatants still left in the group. Attaik indicated that the LRA does not typically arm their non-Ugandan abductees and instead uses them as porters. Consequently, he judged the regional offensive was seriously weakening the LRA because the group was not able to stem it mounting losses with Ugandan replacements. Attaik used the move as an opportunity to separate from his unit and surrender to the UPDF on August 14 near the CAR border. Attaik decided to surrender after the group started moving into CAR, as the move deepened his doubts about the group's future and his chances of ever returning home. Attaik reported that he was nearly killed in late-2007 as part of Kony's purge of former LRA deputy commander Vincent Otti. Furthermore, he added that a majority of the LRA favored Otti's efforts to reach a peace deal, but Kony's refusal to accept one in 2008 had weakened the group's morale. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Humanitarian Situation in DRC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) UNOCHA in Bunia, DRC released its IDP figures for LRA-affected areas of DRC for the month of August. UNOCHA reports the total number of IDPs increased slightly to 309,642 across Bas-Uele District, Haut-Uele District, and the Aru territory of the Ituri District. However IDP numbers continue to fluctuate across the board. The vast majority (232,735) of IDPs are concentrated in the Haut-Uele District, which received an additional 6,000 IDPs in August. Within Haut-Uele, Dungu continues to receive the largest numbers of incoming IDPs and shows a slight increase over past months; Faradje saw an increase of 11,500 IDPs (or 21% over the previous month); and Niangara saw a decrease of about 5,500 IDPs. IDPs increased 54% in the Aru territory of Ituri District, to a total of 45,611. Bas-Uele saw an overall reduction in IDP totals and an increase in Congolese refugee returns from Sudan in August, which rose from 3,000 to 5,700. UNHCR suggests that these returns are from among the unregistered refugee population and may be driven by increased recent LRA activity in Sudan. OCHA estimates that 27,488 Congolese refugees remain in Sudan. Overall, the security situation in DRC appears to have improved, with numbers of LRA attacks, numbers of civilians killed, and numbers of abductions all down from June and July figures. - - - - - - - - - - - LRA attacks in Sudan? - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (SBU) International media reported increasing violence and civilian displacements in the Central and Western Equatoria states of southern Sudan. The UN Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General for Sudan, Ameerah Haq, said on September 11 that there had been 11 LRA attacks in southern Sudan the previous six weeks, including seven in the first week of September alone. Haq also said Central and Western Equatoria States had registered 11,000 IDPs during the past month. Newly appointed LRA negotiator Justin Labeja questioned whether recent attacks in southern Sudan were actually LRA-perpetrated, saying it would be difficult to pin these attacks on Kony without "clear concrete evidence." The UN estimates that LRA-related violence has displaced a total of 68,000 IDPs in southern Sudan since mid-December 2008, and a total of 18,000 refugees from the DRC and CAR. The UN also reports that at least 200 people have been killed and 130 abducted over the same time period. (Note: The UN estimates represent cumulative aggregate numbers dating from December of 2008; without disaggregated estimates, Post believes it would be difficult to confirm what percentage of displacements occurred in the last several months, and whether those numbers represent an upward trend in violence in the area. End note.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Uganda Announces Military Presence in CAR - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) On 7 September, Army spokesman LTC Felix Kulayigye publicly announced to Uganda's "New Vision" newspaper that the UPDF had moved across the CAR border and were pursuing KAMPALA 00001078 003 OF 003 LRA rebels alongside the FACA. Although it is unclear why the UPDF made this announcement when it did, Post believes that Uganda may be setting itself up to claim responsibility for an eventual victory over the LRA. ¶12. (U) This message was cleared by Embassy Kinshasa. LANIER