UGANDA/DRC/CAR/SUDAN: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001078

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/19
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MOPS MARR UG CG SU
SUBJECT: UGANDA/DRC/CAR/SUDAN: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE
(SEPTEMBER 18, 2009)

Classified By: P/E Chief Aaron Sampson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Background: This cable is a periodic update on the
regional military operation against the Lord's Resistance
Army (LRA) known as Operation Rudia II. This report is not
meant to provide an overarching narrative or polished
analysis of the operation, but rather offers spot information
gleaned in Uganda from U.S. Mission sources. We recognize
the regional scope of the operation and the fact that our
sources may be limited in their knowledge and perspective on
Rudia II. End background.


2. (S) Summary: Since August 28, the Ugandan army has killed
16 LRA rebels, including one senior officer, and captured one
LRA rebel in six engagements with the LRA. Recent
engagements corroborate earlier assessments that LRA leader
Joseph Kony and most of his senior leadership have likely
moved out of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and into
the Central African Republic (CAR). The Uganda People's
Defense Forces (UPDF) publicly announced it was pursuing LRA
elements in CAR. The UN Office of the Coordinator for
Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA)reported a slight increase in
the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in
LRA-affected areas of DRC. However the security situation
improved overall, as several areas have seen IDP numbers
decrease. Congolese refugees are also returning from Sudan.
End Summary.

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MILITARY UPDATE
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3. (S) The UPDF continues to lead regional efforts to pursue
LRA elements in eastern DRC and in the CAR, in close
cooperation with the DRC army (FARDC) and the CAR army
(FACA). The Kampala Combined Intelligence Fusion Cell
(KCIFC) assesses that the LRA is operating in a degraded mode
and is incapable of conducting mass attacks against either
opposing forces or civilian targets such as villages.


4. (S) Since August 28, the UPDF have killed 16 LRA rebel
fighters, captured one LRA rebel, recovered 17 weapons, and
recovered 290 rounds of ammunition in six engagements. On
September 2, UPDF engaged an LRA element, possibly under the
command of Okot Odek, northwest of Nagero, DRC. The UPDF
killed three LRA fighters and recovered a substantial weapons
and supply cache in the engagement, including several laptop
computers, various communications equipment, two pairs of
FARDC uniforms, and an unspecified amount of food and
medicine. The KCIFC assesses that the success of the
September 2 engagement further degraded the operational
capability of the LRA group operating near Faradje and likely
led by LRA senior officer Charles Arop.


5. (S) The UPDF engaged with an LRA element believed to be
directly associated with Joseph Kony near Obo, CAR, on
September 7. The UDPF killed four LRA fighters in this
engagement and recovered soap that may have been intended for
Kony. The UPDF assess that the LRA intended to attack Obo
for supplies, and view this as further evidence that key
elements of the LRA are currently in CAR. In a separate
engagement near Ligoua, CAR (approximately 20km from Obo) on
the same day, the UPDF captured one unarmed LRA rebel who is
being held for questioning. According to the UPDF, recent
engagements on September 7 and 8 indicate that LRA elements
operating in southeast CAR are in dire need of food and
supplies, and may attempt to attack the nearby towns of Obo,
Ligoua, Basigbiri, and Zingo in the near term. The UPDF have
set up ambush points to counter any attacks.


6. (S) On September 13, the UPDF engaged an LRA element near
Obo, CAR, killing six LRA fighters, including LTC Santo Alit
(#15 on the LRA Officers List),a senior LRA officer and
Chief of Finance. Additionally, Alit was reported to have
been traveling with MAJ Otto Kalalang, who previously
operated in the Faradje area under the command of LTC Charles
Arop. The KCIFC assesses that MAJ Kalalang's movement from
the Faradje area to SE CAR provides further evidence that the
LRA's central area of operations is now in SE CAR and is no
longer in the vicinity of the Faradje/Garamba/Main Camp area.
However, the UPDF continues to report the presence of LRA
splinter groups across eastern DRC.


7. (SBU) Army spokesman LTC Felix Kulayigye confirmed to
Poloff that September 9 Ugandan press reports claiming the
capture of LRA Brigadeer General Mickman Opuk were false.
Kulayigye said the "New Vision" article was meant to confirm
the recent capture of LRA officer MAJ Okot Attaik, but
instead mistakenly identified Opuk. Kulayigye confirmed that
Opuk is still at large.

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8. (S) Poloff and DRMI debriefed recent LRA defector and
former battalion commander Maj Joseph Okot Attaik on
September 17. Attaik said Kony issued orders in July that
all LRA personnel should regroup in CAR. Attaik received the
instructions around August 1, when a group of eight LRA
combatants including LTC Sam Opio reached his position near
the group's former Camp Kiswahili in DRC. Attaik said he
expected that there were probably very few LRA left in DRC or
Sudan based on Kony's orders. He estimated that there were
400 combatants and 100 noncombatants still left in the group.
Attaik indicated that the LRA does not typically arm their
non-Ugandan abductees and instead uses them as porters.
Consequently, he judged the regional offensive was seriously
weakening the LRA because the group was not able to stem it
mounting losses with Ugandan replacements. Attaik used the
move as an opportunity to separate from his unit and
surrender to the UPDF on August 14 near the CAR border.
Attaik decided to surrender after the group started moving
into CAR, as the move deepened his doubts about the group's
future and his chances of ever returning home. Attaik
reported that he was nearly killed in late-2007 as part of
Kony's purge of former LRA deputy commander Vincent Otti.
Furthermore, he added that a majority of the LRA favored
Otti's efforts to reach a peace deal, but Kony's refusal to
accept one in 2008 had weakened the group's morale.

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Humanitarian Situation in DRC
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9. (SBU) UNOCHA in Bunia, DRC released its IDP figures for
LRA-affected areas of DRC for the month of August. UNOCHA
reports the total number of IDPs increased slightly to
309,642 across Bas-Uele District, Haut-Uele District, and the
Aru territory of the Ituri District. However IDP numbers
continue to fluctuate across the board. The vast majority
(232,735) of IDPs are concentrated in the Haut-Uele District,
which received an additional 6,000 IDPs in August. Within
Haut-Uele, Dungu continues to receive the largest numbers of
incoming IDPs and shows a slight increase over past months;
Faradje saw an increase of 11,500 IDPs (or 21% over the
previous month); and Niangara saw a decrease of about 5,500
IDPs. IDPs increased 54% in the Aru territory of Ituri
District, to a total of 45,611. Bas-Uele saw an overall
reduction in IDP totals and an increase in Congolese refugee
returns from Sudan in August, which rose from 3,000 to 5,700.
UNHCR suggests that these returns are from among the
unregistered refugee population and may be driven by
increased recent LRA activity in Sudan. OCHA estimates that
27,488 Congolese refugees remain in Sudan. Overall, the
security situation in DRC appears to have improved, with
numbers of LRA attacks, numbers of civilians killed, and
numbers of abductions all down from June and July figures.

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LRA attacks in Sudan?
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10. (SBU) International media reported increasing violence
and civilian displacements in the Central and Western
Equatoria states of southern Sudan. The UN Deputy Special
Representative of the Secretary General for Sudan, Ameerah
Haq, said on September 11 that there had been 11 LRA attacks
in southern Sudan the previous six weeks, including seven in
the first week of September alone. Haq also said Central and
Western Equatoria States had registered 11,000 IDPs during
the past month. Newly appointed LRA negotiator Justin Labeja
questioned whether recent attacks in southern Sudan were
actually LRA-perpetrated, saying it would be difficult to pin
these attacks on Kony without "clear concrete evidence." The
UN estimates that LRA-related violence has displaced a total
of 68,000 IDPs in southern Sudan since mid-December 2008, and
a total of 18,000 refugees from the DRC and CAR. The UN also
reports that at least 200 people have been killed and 130
abducted over the same time period. (Note: The UN estimates
represent cumulative aggregate numbers dating from December
of 2008; without disaggregated estimates, Post believes it
would be difficult to confirm what percentage of
displacements occurred in the last several months, and
whether those numbers represent an upward trend in violence
in the area. End note.)

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Uganda Announces Military Presence in CAR
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11. (C) On 7 September, Army spokesman LTC Felix Kulayigye
publicly announced to Uganda's "New Vision" newspaper that
the UPDF had moved across the CAR border and were pursuing

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LRA rebels alongside the FACA. Although it is unclear why the
UPDF made this announcement when it did, Post believes that
Uganda may be setting itself up to claim responsibility for
an eventual victory over the LRA.


12. (U) This message was cleared by Embassy Kinshasa.

LANIER