Zabul residents say "Show us the COIN!"

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000963

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: Zabul residents say "Show us the COIN!"


1. (SBU) Summary: The expansion of Forward Operating
Base Wolverine in Zabul is at the heart of
counterinsurgency (COIN) activities. To mitigate the
negative effects of building a massive International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) military installation
within the center of an insurgent area in an already
unstable province, coalition forces are using a variety
of tools to win the support of local communities, promote
the Afghan government, and blunt the impact for a handful
of landowners who lost their fields. Zabul presents a
tough environment: low levels of literacy and high levels
of poverty (even by Afghan standards),and a stream of
insurgents flowing through its border from Pakistan.
ISAF management of the construction and operations of an
enormous base, with Strykers and helicopters and
eventually a C-17 airstrip, will directly impact COIN
efforts in the province. End Summary.

A tough sell in a tough environment
--------------


2. (SBU) FOB Wolverine lies in the middle of Suri, a
sub-district in the middle of Zabul, 17 km from Highway
One, and two hours down a dirt road in a highly kinetic
area. It hosts a variety of tribes, but the dominant are
the Khotaks. Many local villages passively or actively
support the Taliban, or are coerced into helping them.
In the last three months, Wolverine has received more
enemy fire than any other FOB in the province. U.S.
troops mentoring the local Afghan Army Battalion (Kandak)
as an Embedded Training Team (ETT) note that some areas
are effectively "no-go zones" for the Afghan National
Army (ANA). The Afghan government has historically made
minimal efforts to extend government control and security
in the area beyond a major supply route running through
the center of the area. A Suri man, Bismillah Khan,
received international attention in September 2008 when
the Taliban cut off his ears because he worked for the
Afghan government as a teacher at the sole local school,
which is now closed.


3. (SBU) The decision to expand FOB Wolverine, which
currently houses a small U.S. ETT team and the 4th
Kandak, to a facility to house elements of a Stryker
Brigade Combat Team (SBCT),supporting aviation assets,
and a C-17 capable airfield, initially terrified the
local population, who feared an increase in conflicts
between security forces and resident Taliban. In January
and February, many Suri elders repeatedly made the
journey to the provincial capital Qalat in an attempt to
dissuade U.S. Forces from the proposed expansion. In
addition to attracting insurgents, elders argued that the
base expansion would result in the loss of their lands
and destroy their underground irrigation systems, and
that noise from the airfield would disrupt their daily
life and frighten their families. They petitioned then-
Governor Arman to stop the base expansion, not realizing
that the Ministry of Defense (MOD) had approved the plans
in December 2008 and was unlikely to change its decision.

Winning them over, one cup of tea at a time
--------------


4. (SBU) Over a series of individual meetings and
Afghan-style style town hall "shuras" held in Suri and in
Qalat, coalition forces ranging from the ETT to the
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) to engineers and
contracting officers from the construction Task Force
Remagen in Kandahar worked with the ANA and the Afghan
government (GIRoA) to assuage local fears and emphasize
the security and development benefits the expanded base
would bring. Coalition forces also rallied the support
of the provincial authorities to work on land titling
issues. RC-South Deputy Commander for Stabilization
(DCOM STAB) Brigadier General Nicholson personally
briefed former Governor Arman in January to ensure that
the provincial government would help address community
concerns.


5. (SBU) In addition to the very real threat of more
Taliban coming to their communities and demanding shelter
while they plan or execute their attacks, elders
expressed two main concerns about the base: 1) on an
individual level it confiscated the fields from a handful
of families who may not be compensated by the MOD; and 2)
on a community level the construction would disrupt the
"karez" irrigation system and potentially ruin watersheds
and water tables and add airplane noise to the area.

KABUL 00000963 002 OF 003


They also asked that contractors and laborers from Suri
be given preference over outsiders from "Kandahar or
Ghazni."


6. (SBU) In response to residents' concerns, coalition
forces have used a number of initiatives to build trust,
push quick-impact development projects and promote the
Afghan government and ANA presence in Suri. The result
has been to change firm opposition to resignation towards
the inevitable and recognition of the tangible employment
and development benefits available. These initiatives
include:

-- Local Stability Initiatives (LSI): The Wolverine-
based ETT has used the small grants mechanism of
USAID/LGCD Local Stability Initiatives (LSI) to conduct
seven quick impact projects in key villages around Suri.
Working closely with their ANA counterparts, LSI allows
the coalition forces at the site to respond immediately
to community needs and concerns, and deliver some basic
services, like cleaning clogged irrigation channels. An
ANA officer in Suri noted the success at winning public
opinion: "Many years ago the United States gave money to
the Mujahaddin. Then you gave it to contractors, not
even the Afghan government. Now, finally, you are giving
it to the people."

-- Land Titling Economic Restructuring Activities
(LTERA): The USAID/LTERA field visit March 26-30 visit
culminated in a March 29 provincial government-led
meeting with Suri elders, provincial officials, LTERA, as
well as Zabul PRT engineering and civil affairs staff and
Task Force Remagen to conduct public outreach about the
expansion, as well as collect documentation from
communities and individuals. LTERA recommended
designing a pilot-project model methodology for
quantifying the impacts. This analysis could be provided
to the appropriate GIRoA officials as deliverables to use
in the decision process for land compensation packages.
LTERA also recommended engaging the Ministries of Defense
and Agriculture on behalf of the provincial government
and the people. PRT will help develop some next steps
for helping the handful of individual landowners seeking
compensation for their lost production and lands.

-- PRT Commanders' Emergency Response Programs (CERP):
The PRT distributed humanitarian assistance and
winter/spring wheat seeds and will continue to monitor
for opportunities for quick-impact assistance. CERP
funding will construct at least three wells, and provide
a veterinarianQs visit for herders, as well as introduce
water sanitation and malnutrition rehabilitation programs
in partnership with the local medical clinic. Coalition
forces will continue to propose new projects that benefit
the communities--schools, mosques, clinic, and wells--in
conjunction with local authorities.

-- TF Remagen has made several visits to Suri to explain
the construction process and better understand the
residents' engineering concerns. The lead airfield
engineer even accompanied several ANA community
engagement missions to meet with local tribal leaders,
gaining a first-hand awareness of local concerns and
demonstrating a sincere U.S. and GIROA commitment to
addressing them. The contracting officer, in
collaboration with the PRT, met several times with local
businessmen about the process to bid on various contracts
connected with the new base. Additionally, larger
contractors have been advised to hire local workers and
the communities have confirmed that more and more jobs on
the construction site have been made available to them.

-- USACE Hydrology study: A comprehensive look at the
water issues at the base site identified areas where base
expansion, to include a concrete plant and construction
wells, undermines the counterinsurgency efforts and
supports Taliban claims that the base will destroy the
water supply to fields. The study will help the U.S.
engineers to make adjustments, and allow the PRT and
others to tailor their development projects to
compensating for any damage or disruption.

-- The resident ANA Kandak seized the base expansion as a
window of opportunity to execute Operation Suri Embrase,
a COIN-based strategy to win the support of local leaders
by extending GIROA presence into key villages to address
village needs, including those created by the expansion
itself.

KABUL 00000963 003 OF 003




7. (SBU) Comment: While no single act will determine
the success of failure of the new base, taken together,
the coordinated development projects and public outreach
represent a wide-ranging interagency approach to COIN in
the region. A few unresolved issues could still tip the
balance of public opinion--including how individual
compensation is handled by the Afghan government and
coalition forces, how the procurement process is
perceived by those who feel entitled to a contract, and
the base expansion's perceived impact on water resources.
Despite starting as an unhappy population who threatened
to take to the hills and "fight like we fought the
Soviets," the Suri residents are starting to feel the
benefits of a more engaged Afghan government and a
coalition serious about local development.


8. (U) PRT, ETT, USAID and TF-Remagen all coordinated in
preparing this cable.

RICCIARDONE