HIA TO ENDORSE ITS OWN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000947 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KWMN PHUM AF SUBJECT: HIA TO ENDORSE ITS OWN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT REF: KABUL 139 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan's (HIA) leader Arghandewal says party members are dissatisfied with the existing presidential candidates and plan to nominate a candidate from within their own party next week. Arghandewal will promote Gulbuddin Helal, Hezb-e-Islami's political director in the 1990s, at the party's nominating conference on April ¶24. Arghandewal acknowledges HIA is looking to leverage its influence in a second round of voting rather than forming a coalition with other camps and aiming for a first-round victory. HIA appreciated US efforts to promote a level playing field, but advised the US and other foreign countries to not limit their contact with opposition candidates to only three or four people. HIA members in Parliament tried to block the Shia Family Law earlier this year, though largely out of opposition to a dual judicial system and not due to the specific wording of the controversial law. End Summary. Candidate Coming Soon (This Time We Mean It) -------------- ¶2. (SBU) HIA Chairman Abdul Hadi Arghandewal told PolOff on April 15 that party members had labored unsuccessfully for more than eight months to reach a consensus on its choice for president. President Karzai fell out of the running earlier this year due to his unresponsiveness to the party's core issue (local governance improvements) and outreach to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, with whom HIA's leadership has cut off official contact (reftel). Arghandewal dismissed other candidates as vague on the issues and unwilling to release a detailed platform. HIA members want to vote for a passionate candidate serious about providing fast results - not someone looking to further his political career. ¶3. (SBU) With the deadline for candidate registration quickly approaching (May 8),Arghandewal last week directed HIA's provincial committees to send him lists of three names for preferred candidates. More than half of the committees returned lists with Arghandewal at the top, and nearly all sent in candidates from within the party. Arghandewal told PolOff he has no interest in running, but takes the endorsements as a sign the provincial committees are willing to defer to his choice for the party's nominee, as long as the nominee is an existing HIA member. Arghandewal Identifies Gulbuddin Helal, a Dark Horse -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Arghandewal will promote Gulbuddin Helal, Hezb-e-Islami's political director in the 1990s, at the party's nominating conference on April 24. Helal ran Hezb-e-Islami's political operations out of Peshawar, Pakistan until about 2000. In 2002, Helal began organizing party members to break from Hekmatyar's militant Hezb-e-Islami/Gulbuddin (HIG) and rejoin the Afghan political mainstream. Arghandewal credited Helal for negotiating HIA's entrance into Afghan politics with Karzai in 2004. Shortly thereafter, Helal left Afghanistan for leukemQ.Qs@1QyQ4nQmR He now divides his time between Kabul and Saudi Arabia. Arghandewal claims Helal has recovered and is now in gooT[jfQQVQ$][JMQf"oz}soutsider. With a 10-15 percent first round result in its pocket, the party will be in a strong position to negotiate with candidates in the second round, where strategic negotiation is required. HIA leaders are comfortable with this strategy as long as it appears no candidate will cross the 50 percent threshold in the first round. "The first round is about showing our strength, and the second round is where we play to be on the winning side," Arghandewal said. Level Playing Field: Appreciate US Efforts, But Want Boarder Approach -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Arghandewal said HIA leaders had taken note of recent US efforts to promote a level playing field among all presidential candidates. The party welcomed those efforts, but many believed US VIP appearances with opposition candidates should include a larger circle of likely candidates. Many HIA members had the impression the US was improperly promoting 3-4 candidates as the "front-runners," KABUL 00000947 002.2 OF 002 though Arghandewal recognized that HIA and other parties had gotten a late start in nominating their own candidates. ¶7. (SBU) Arghandewal welcomed efforts to commit Karzai and the Afghan government to strong regulations on the impartiality of government officials and security forces. He believed, however, that Karzai supporters within the government would still be able to influence the course or conduct of the electoral process and stay under the radar or otherwise escape punishment. Campaign finance restrictions were "unrealistic" and unimportant to the party. As a grassroots operation with an existing large membership, HIA's expenses should be significantly less compared to other major campaigns that will rely on media advertising and building networks from scratch. Arghandewal was confident he could finance his candidate's campaign with just a handful of $10,000-$50,000 donations from businessmen within the party. The party's top concern is financing and organizing get-out-the-vote operations on election day. Arghandewal predicts Karzai will gain a huge advantage by using government resources to move supporters to the polls. HIA on Shia Family Law -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Arghandewal said HIA executive committee member Mawlawi Ataullah Ludin (Nangarhar, Pashtun) tried to block the Shia Family Law in the Lower House earlier this year. As chairman of the Justice Committee, Ludin opposed the law as an unnecessary dual justice system. Arghandewal, Ludin, and other HIA leaders recognize the Constitution permits a separate Shia jurisprudence, but prefer it to be non-binding or otherwise not codified into law. Ludin held up a vote for several weeks until conservative Shia MPs threatened to label the party anti-Shia. Worried that such allegations would hurt HIA's recruitment efforts in Hazara communities, Ludin stood aside. HIA has struggled to build a women's wing to match its support among men, so has largely remained silent in the current debate over the law, though many members are uncomfortable with perceived Western influence over the country's religious affairs. RICCIARDONE