CODEL KYL DISCUSSES SUPPORT FOR 'LEVEL PLAYING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000938 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM OREP AF SUBJECT: CODEL KYL DISCUSSES SUPPORT FOR 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' WITH LIKELY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES ¶1. (SBU) CODEL Kyl and four likely presidential candidates conducted a lively exchange on the upcoming election season, focusing on what the international community should do to support a level playing field for the August 20 elections. The prospective candidates identified the following specific concerns: -- Karzai leveraging the presidency to expand his support and undermine opposition candidates -- Need for the International Community (IC) to begin monitoring election-related irregularities immediately -- Need for Karzai to engage in an IC-hosted dialogue with the oppposition on level playing field issues -- Enactment of Media Law to promote equitable access to media -- Security and transportation for candidates -- Intimidation of candidates and supporters - either directly or through threats of loss of employment -- Funding for opposition candidates and scrutiny of foreign contributions CANDIDATES WELCOME STATEMENTS ON NEUTRALITY BUT FEAR THEY ARE NOT ENOUGH -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Charge d'Affaires and DCM hosted an April 7th lunch between Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ),Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL),Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA),Rep. John Kline, (R-MN),and Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA) and likely presidential contenders Dr. Abdullah Abdullah (United National Front Coalition),Dr. Ashraf Ghani (former Finance Minister),Dr. Anwar ul-Haq Ahadi (Afghan Social Democrat Party and also former Finance Minister) and Mirwais Yaseni, (Deputy Chairman - Lower House of Parliament). The candidates raised concerns surrounding the August 20 presidential election and the preceding campaign season. Senator Kyl stressed the U.S. did not favor any candidate but was committed to an open, credible process and, therefore, wanted to do all possible to promote a level playing field for candidates. ¶3. (SBU) The senior Afghan pols welcomed the U.S.'s regular reiteration of our neutrality on candidates. Yaseni observed that the U.S. siding with any candidate would threaten the credibility of the election and potentially undermine Afghanistan's fragile democracy. Abdullah feared such statements would not be enough to convince the Afghan people that Karzai was not still the U.S. candidate. Hope in the President had faded, but the people still looked to the U.S. for guidance. Abdullah emphasized the need for the U.S. in particular to find a way to convince Afghans, through actions as well as words, that Karzai was no longer the West's candidate. IF IC WAITS FOR ELECTION DAY TO ACT, IT WILL BE TOO LATE -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) These potential candidates said the international community must begin to move now if it wants to ensure a credible election. They were unanimous in urging the U.S. to work with the international community (IC) to focus immediately on addressing and deterring campaign irregularities and abuse of presidential power. "The time has passed," Ahadi said, "for calling for measures to secure a free, fair process -- it is time to implement such measures" or chances for a credible election could be lost before the campaign really begins. Ghani insisted the IC had to stop thinking in terms of "if there were campaign violations" and instead decide what measures to take when they did occur. Clear guidance would need to be in place to react effectively when "campaigners are beaten by members of the national security apparatus." ¶5. (SBU) Ghani worried less about election day than the day after, if Afghans did not see the process as credible: "We don't want to be another Zimbabwe or Kenya." Ghani added that, "The next president of Afghanistan will have one of the most difficult jobs on earth. Without a legitimate mandate, his or her ability to govern will be very low." KARZAI ALREADY MOVING TO OUTFLANK POTENTIAL OPPONENTS -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The potential challengers asserted that President Karzai had already begun to leverage his office to promote his re-election and undermine his opponents. They accused Karzai of wielding his authority to appoint senior GIRoA officials, directing government officials to act on his behalf and exploiting the influence of provincial governors he had appointed. The politicians declared: "We have no warlords, no weapons, no helicopters, no treasury." ¶7. (SBU) Ambassador Ricciardone told the group that President KABUL 00000938 002 OF 003 Karzai had informed CODEL Kyl that he would sign a degree forbidding interference by government entities, civil servants, police, etc. in the election process. Karzai asserted that 14 officials had been warned to stop such activities - only one had been a Karzai supporter. The President declared that if any of the 14 were to be prosecuted he would want it to be his supporter, to set an example. Karzai's potential opponents dismissed this anecdote - questioning the small number mentioned. Yaseni had already received reports of intimidation of MPs and was aware of one representative who brought Karzai 25,000 copies of voter registration cards from the representative's district, 8,000 of which, Yaseni asserted, were clearly fraudulent. Ahadi and Abdullah also claimed Karzai had already begun using his office to campaign - with provincial Governors talking up Karzai and seeking to block opposition organizers and other government officials bringing pressures to bear on constituents and employees. Ahadi insisted intimidation had begun, with officials or employers calling supporters to question their participation at political gatherings, with the implication their jobs were at risk. MISSING PIECE: IC-HOSTED DIALOGUE BETWEEN KARZAI AND OPPOSITION -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Abdullah and Ahadi, fully supported by Ghani and Yaseni, identified a critical need to establish a dialogue between the Palace and the opposition to discuss such level playing field measures and reach some IC-brokered agreement. The Afghans stressed the IC would need to be an active participant to ensure progress and fairness. Abdullah said this dialogue was "the missing piece" that would allow the electoral process to move forward by addressing the many issues of concern to all candidates. Ghani added, "We need agreement among us now on the rules of the game." "LOST" MEDIA LAW MUST BE IMPLEMENTED -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Abdullah raised the urgent need to enact the Media Law. Parliament had passed it, overriding a Presidential veto, and yet the Palace had "shelved" it instead of publishing it as law. Abdullah deemed the government's assertion that the law had been "lost" to be absurd. The Media Law, the potential candidates agreed, was critical to ensuring equal access to Afghan media for the candidates. SECURITY AND TRANSPORTATION FOR CANDIDATES -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The politicians were concerned about personal protection, but saw few good options. The government has said the National Directorate for Security (NDS) - Afghanistan's intelligence agency - would likely have responsibilty for candidate protection, but this offered little comfort to the potential challengers. Abdullah, with the others nodding in agreement, said the arrangement was not workable as "we fear our own security organizations." ¶11. (SBU) As for transportation, the politicians were more sanguine though they ruefully acknowledge Karzai will likely use ANSF helicopters and security to move around Afghanistan throughout the campaign season. Yaseni approaches the challenges of getting around from a practical stand point. If possible to drive or fly, he would. If not, he would reach out by telephone or through local representatives. He pointed out that all of the candidates could get to the most important regional population centers. He did not intend to let transportation challenges stand in his way. ¶12. (SBU) Rep. Kline said providing security and transportation for candidates was extremely important, but that it would be logistically difficult, if not impossible, to provide such support for a large field of candidates. He suggested that at some point early in the campaign someone - whether the UN or NGOs - should develop an authoritative list of major contenders and ensure they had the necessary support. INTERNATIONAL ELECTION ORGANIZATIONS CRITICAL TO OVERSIGHT AND LEGITIMACY OF ELECTION PROCESS -------------- -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Rep. Harman asked about international organizations devoted to promoting fair elections, noting these organizations had the experience and credibility to provide effective guidance to the process. The Charge informed the Codel that the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute were both here working on elections. And a series of six debates was being planned with the help of the Chamber of Commerce. Ghani also noted KABUL 00000938 003 OF 003 the IC was helping to identify and encourage the participation of international election observers - essential to certifying the outcome as legitimate. He noted the UN was helpful but needed more election staff. The IEC needed more staff and more capacity. The DCM advised the group that the U.S. would soon be sending Ambassador Tim Carney, an experienced diplomat who had worked on elections in many difficult environments. Ambassador Carney would bring a sizeable team to assist with election coordination. (Amb. Carney and team completed an initial assessment visit in late March.) The DCM also noted the EU and OSCE would be sending assessment teams very soon, to develop plans for election observation missions. Additionally, local NGO Free and Fair Elections Afghanistan (FEFA) had been receiving international support to monitor the elections process and field observers. THE "INVISIBLE PRIMARY" - WILL THE OPPOSITION UNITE? -------------- -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Rep. Harman asked the four candidates if they weren't concerned about splitting the opposition vote. The Afghan leaders laughed and agreed this was a topic of much discussion currently. Ghani said there was an "invisible primary" taking place, referring to opposition blocs negotiating in attempts to gain unified support for their own candidates. Senator Kyl urged the opposition leaders to join forces on these issues, specifically in uniting to present their concerns publicly - especially regarding voter fraud or campaign irregularities - to the international press. He noted international media could bring a greater level of pressure on the government than either the Afghans or the U.S. alone. He acknowledged the Afghans' point that local media generally did not take an investigative approach, but reiterated that the international press, such as BBC and Reuters, would investigate - they just needed someone to point them towards the story. ¶15. (U) CODEL Kyl did not clear on this message. RICCIARDONE