DEPUTY SECRETARY LEW'S MEETING WITH COMISAF

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000917 NOFORN STATE FOR SRAP AMB HOLBROOKE, D/L LEW, SCA/A OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-101 AND POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2019 TAGS: PREL MARR PINS PTER PGOV AF SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY LEW'S MEETING WITH COMISAF Classified By: DCM CHRISTOPHER W. DELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (SBU) On April 2, Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Jacob Lew met with Commander International Security Assistance Forces (COMISAF) General David McKiernan, to discuss COMISAF,s plans for creating a permissive environment for civilian activity in Regional Command-South and Regional Command-East. COMISAF emphasized that the civilian component is key to a good counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy, and laid out the basics of ISAF,s campaign plan, with special emphasis on COIN principles of "Clear-Shape-Hold." COMISAF mentioned that, though under-resourced in the past, he anticipated better resourcing for the plan under the new Administration,s priorities, which would see a significant increase of personnel and resources in the South and East. ¶2. (SBU) COMISAF stated that the East already enjoys a favorable combination of governance, development and security factors; it &is trending in the right direction.8 Since the insurgency is weaker in the North and the West, COMISAF felt that the risk in those places was acceptable, and, therefore, fewer US troops were needed. ¶3. (C) Even though much progress has been made in the South, the perception still exists that the Taliban are resurgent there, and that the region is in a downward spiral, said COMISAF. The increased presence of US Forces in the South, which will begin in earnest in early May and will continue until the August election period, will allow the US to concentrate activities along the border to give Coalition partner forces relief in Kandahar and Helmand (Note: Parts of the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Unit will also operate along the Helmand-Farah border area. End Note.). COMISAF cited recent activities in Garmsir/Helmand River valley as an example of the successful Clear-Shape-Hold model: since the Taliban have been cleared out of the region, bazaars have re-opened, shuras are held, the regional governor is travelling, and hospitals are able to open. The people in the region have demonstrated that they want the security provided by Coalition Forces. ¶4. (C) Lew asked if COMISAF anticipated a possible second wave of insurgency after the initial hold. COMISAF did not perceive a resurgence of Taliban activity in Garmsir; but allowed that our presence there would need to be long-term. The extra Marines coming to Garmsir, for example, would be helpful in maintaining the hold. ¶5. (SBU) Lew asked how ISAF is building in safeguards to ensure that troops of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are inculcated with the concepts of professional security forces responsible for, and responsive to, a civilian government and its coalition allies. COMISAF said that he did not worry about the more professional and better-trained Afghan National Army (ANA),however, continued work is needed to train, equip and mentor the Afghan National Police (ANP) to develop greater professionalism and engender a higher level of trust among their own people. Minister of Interior Atmar has increased the ANP tashkil (manning strength),and instituted the Afghan Public Protection Program (APPP) neighborhood watch program; these recent examples show some real improvement in the state of the ANP. COMISAF said he remains cautiously optimistic about these initiatives; but he emphasized that, in the end, the Afghan people must perceive these initiatives as good things. ¶6. (SBU) COMISAF emphasized that freedom of movement in the South was a top tactical priority; movement along the Ring Road is critical. Over the past three-four months, security along the Ring Road has improved, although at a high cost. ANA, ANP and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) presence along the Ring Road has increased throughout the South, and the level of incidents has decreased. At the same time traffic along the road has increased. ¶7. (SBU) USAID Task Force for Afghanistan and Pakistan Director James Bever, who accompanied Lew, mentioned that USAID was prepared to facilitate cross-border activity, specifically in the Spin Buldak area, to ensure that produce and other products get to market. COMISAF remarked that continuing security measures were necessary to keep that particular area (ie, Quetta on the Pakistan side) open to cross-border commerce. ¶8. (SBU) Lew stressed that the Administration, during its strategic review of the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, had recognized the need for greater civilian-military cooperation. He noted that his trip to the region, to be followed days later by Special Representative Holbrooke, demonstrated attention to improving and expanding civilian activities commensurate with improved and expanded security. Closing the meeting, COMISAF and Lew noted the importance of developing Afghanistan,s capacity by developing its human capital. ¶9. (U) This cable has been cleared by Deputy Secretary Lew's office. RICCIARDONE