AFGHANISTAN LAND TRANSPORT SECTOR REPORT PART 3:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000903 DEPT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/RA, AND SCA/A DEPT PASS FOR AID/ANE DEPT PASS USTR FOR DELANEY AND DEANGELIS DEPT PASS OPIC DEPT PASS FOR TDA FOR STEIN AND GREENIP USOECD FOR ENERGY ATTACHE CENTCOM FOR CSTC-A NSC FOR JWOOD TREASURY FOR MHIRSON, ABAUKOL, BDAHL, AND MNUGET COMMERCE FOR DEES, CHOPPIN, AND FONOVICH SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958 N/A TAGS: EINV EAID ELTN ECON ETRD AF SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN LAND TRANSPORT SECTOR REPORT PART 3: The Future of Roads and Rail REF: A) Kabul 899 B) Kabul 839 C) Kabul 784 D) Kabul 782 E) Kabul 705 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Roads will remain an important economic development priority in Afghanistan. The Ministry of Public Works (MPW) aims ultimately to develop a network of 17,000 km of roads for Afghanistan at an additional cost of some USD 7 billion. Discussions and plans are underway to improve overland supply routes to China and develop rail links to China and Iran in the near- and long-term future. The Deputy Minister of Public Works has criticized donors for not coordinating better with MPW and for not doing more to develop MPW capacity to manage road construction projects. In turn, donors and Afghan business leaders are skeptical of the GIRoA's capacity to manage projects. Road maintenance is a growing concern, and discussions are underway between MPW and USAID to develop a highway authority responsible for road toll collection and maintenance. The GIRoA will likely need to show some measurable improvements in project management, road maintenance, and revenue collection before donors are willing to continue to fund such an expansive, and expensive, infrastructure program. This message is the third in a three-part series (see Refs A and B). End Summary. ************************************* Plans for Future Road Infrastructure; Overland Routes to China ************************************* ¶2. (SBU) In a March 17 meeting, Deputy Minister of Public Works Rasooli told Econoff that since 97 percent of freight traffic is carried by road, roads will remain a critical economic development priority for Afghanistan for years to come. Since 2001, donors have spent USD 2.4 billion in road construction (Ref C). Rasooli told Econoff that constructing a 17,000 km network of provincial and regional roads is a priority for the Afghan government under the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS). Rasooli said that in addition to constructing provincial roads, the GIRoA hopes to �0A;start building a north-south corridor from Kandahar to Mazar-e-Sharif through the central provinces and an east-west highway from Kabul to Herat. MPW estimates that future road development will cost USD 7 billion. ¶3. (SBU) Better overland routes to China are also of interest to both the Afghan and Chinese governments. On March 18, Chinese Economic Counselor Hu Yuanteng said alternate supply routes between China and Afghanistan are a priority for the Chinese government owing to the security problems at the Khyber Pass and because sea routes through Iran to Nimroz are too costly for Chinese contractors. Deputy Minister Rasooli said he has talked to the Chinese about building a road through the Wakhan corridor (about 200 km). However, construction costs may be prohibitive at USD 2 million per kilometer (at least USD 400 million in total) owing to the Wakhan's high mountainous terrain. Hu confirmed to Econoff that developing a Wakhan corridor route is not possible in the near future. Rasooli said the two governments are also exploring the option of building a road to Eshkashem near the northeastern border with Tajikistan in Badakhshan province that would connect to roads leading to China through Kyrgyzstan. **************************** A Growing Rail Sector: China and Iran Lead Development **************************** ¶4. (SBU) Deputy Minister Rasooli told Econoff that Afghanistan is keen to develop a rail sector as a more cost effective and faster alternative for transporting freight than roads. Rasooli believes railroad connections would better support military supply imports and decrease the burden on already deteriorating roads at key chokepoints at Pul-e-Khumri and the Khyber Pass. Rasooli said Afghanistan needs a rail link through Zaranj to Iran as a long-term goal. In the near future, Rasooli envisions extending rail links from neighboring countries inside the Afghan border. Then the Afghan government could build depots for processing and transferring freight. These depots would then connect via road to the Ring Road KABUL 00000903 002 OF 003 and major provincial roads. ¶5. (SBU) On February 28, Asian Development Bank (ADB) officials told Econoff that the ADB recently approved a USD 1 million project to complete a survey for a railroad linking the northeast provinces to Herat. Meanwhile, unconfirmed rumors suggest that Iran and China have agreed to fund jointly a railroad connecting the northeast provinces to the rail link that Iran is currently building from the Iranian border to Herat (Refs C, D, and E). Chinese Economic Counselor Hu said that China, Afghanistan, and the Central Asian countries need to establish a transit trade agreement in order to maximize the benefits of possible rail development. He added that using rail to carry supplies from China would be more cost effective for Afghan businessmen and Chinese contractors working here because one rail wagon can carry 60 tons of cargo at a cost of USD 6,000 while a container shipped by sea through Karachi costs at least the same amount but carries far less cargo and may suffer delays or insurgent attacks while transiting Pakistan to Kabul. ******************************* Developing Local Contractor and Afghan Government Capacity ******************************* ¶6. (SBU) Deputy Minister Rasooli charged that donors need to work more closely with MPW on funding priorities and in project management in order to increase the capacity of the Afghan government and private sector contractors in road construction. He said that road projects are costly because donors hire international project managers and engineers rather than Afghans. He said MPW road construction projects typically cost 30 percent less than private sector contractor projects. As an example, he noted that a foreign road construction engineer earns USD 25,000-30,000 per month, two to three times the cost of an Afghan engineer. Rasooli said that donors should funnel their project resources to the MPW for management and use the MPW's staff of 70 engineers. He strongly believes that the MPW now has the capacity to manage projects; however, because of what he described as donor bias against Afghan government management, MPW does not have the budget it needs to oversee all road construction projects. ¶7. (SBU) In meetings with Econoff, Chinese, Japanese, German, and ADB officials were all skeptical of MPW capacity to effectively manage donor funds for road construction projects. In a March 22 meeting, German Emboffs dismissed MPW's criticism of donors not developing Afghan capacity as simply "donor bashing" in the lead up to elections. In a March 17 meeting, Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) leaders criticized the GIRoA's construction contracting policies, charging that the Afghan government is not transparent. ACCI leaders called for increased contract opportunities and training for Afghan construction businesses, to enable them to compete for and successfully manage road projects. ************************************ Addressing Road Maintenance: A Highway Authority for Afghanistan? ************************************ ¶8. (SBU) International partners have told Econoff in recent meetings that road maintenance is a concern and that donors are increasingly focusing funds on maintenance projects as well as construction. ADB estimated that maintenance of the Ring Road will cost up to USD 25 million by 2012. In a March 25 meeting with Econoff, Japanese Emboff said that Japan plans to spend a portion of its USD 250 million roads assistance budget to Afghanistan to maintain the 650 km of roads Japan has already or is currently constructing. Afghan business leaders claim that 40 percent of the roads constructed since 2001 have deteriorated to the point of being unusable. ¶9. (SBU) USAID is developing plans for an independent highway authority that could use revenues from toll collection to maintain road infrastructure. However, without appropriate legislation, it is unclear which of the ministries sharing responsibility for road development and management has control over road maintenance. MPW, the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation (MoTCA),and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) all claim to have authority over aspects KABUL 00000903 003 OF 003 of revenue collection. Thus, a highway authority dependent on those funds would have to struggle to maintain independence from these ministries. Under the ANDS, MPW is responsible for constructing and maintaining roads, MoTCA is responsible for road toll collection, and MOF receives and disburses revenue from toll collection through the central budget. In reality, MoTCA has no capacity to oversee aspects of the land transport sector, while MPW, with donor support, constructs roads and would want to maintain control over any road monies allocated to a highway authority. ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: Rasooli is perhaps unrealistic in his assumption that donors will continue to foot the bill for all road projects without some contribution from the Afghan government's budget and a clear plan for maintenance of existing roads. We suspect that the GIRoA will need to show some measurable improvements in project management and revenue collection before donors are willing to fund the forecast additional USD 7 billion needed for road projects in the next 12-15 years. RICCIARDONE