AFGHANISTAN LAND TRANSPORT SECTOR PART 2:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000899 DEPT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/RA, AND SCA/A DEPT PASS FOR AID/ANE DEPT PASS USTR FOR DELANEY AND DEANGELIS DEPT PASS OPIC DEPT PASS FOR TDA FOR STEIN AND GREENIP CENTCOM FOR CSTC-A NSC FOR JWOOD TREASURY FOR MHIRSON, ABAUKOL, AWELLER, AND MNUGENT COMMERCE FOR DEES, CHOPPIN, AND FONOVICH SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958 N/A TAGS: EINV EAID ELTN ETRD ECON PGOV AF SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN LAND TRANSPORT SECTOR PART 2: Economic Impact of Road Development and Security Challenges REF: A) Kabul 839 B) Kabul 782 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Development of the Ring Road and its links to the borders has led to decreased travel times, increased commercial activity, and increased government revenue. However, Afghan business leaders complain that road quality and maintenance, police and Customs corruption, and burdensome taxes diminish the potential economic benefits of the growing transportation network. Afghan officials, business people, and foreign donors all agree that the lack of highway security inhibits road construction projects and impedes Afghanistan from reaching its full potential as a transit trade link for Central Asia. The Ministry of Interior offers a politically difficult plan to address highway security while countering that police corruption is under control. This is the second in a three-part series on land transport issues. End Summary. ****************************** Economic and Commercial Impact Of Road Development ****************************** ¶2. (SBU) On March 17 Deputy Minister of Public Works Rasooli told Econoff that Ring Road (RR) development has reduced travel time by six to seven times. For example, before 2001, it took seven days to travel between Islam Qala at the Iran border and Torkham at the Pakistan border. Rasooli estimates that it now only takes one day. Rasooli said that road usage has increased dramatically with the near completion of the RR. Rasooli said that traffic is now estimated at up to 12,000 trucks per day from the northeastern provinces to Torkham. Rasooli also said that investment in roads has led to increased road safety. He noted that before 2001 there were four to five accidents per day on the busy Kabul to Torkham road. Now, Rasooli said, the number of accidents has fallen by 60-70 percent. In a March 28 meeting with Econoff, Indian Poloff JP Singh said that the 215 km road from Zaranj on the Iran border to the RR at Delaram completed in September represents a boon for Nimroz province. Singh said that travel time to the Iranian border has decreased from 12-14 hours to 2 hours and now more than 50 trucks transit this road daily, up from five before the road was constructed. ¶3. (SBU) Deputy Minister Rasooli estimated that the government receives up to USD 300 million per year in revenue from road development through tolls and indirect benefits including increased fuel sales spurring revenue from fuel taxes. Rasooli said that fuel costs have decreased 60 percent for all vehicles traveling on Afghan roads as a direct result of investment in road infrastructure. Rasooli noted that since 97 percent of freight travels by road (the remaining 3 percent by air),road development will remain an important economic development priority for Afghanistan. ******************* Highway Security: An Enduring Concern ******************* ¶4. (SBU) In recent meetings with Econoff, Chinese, Indian, German, Japanese, Asian Development Bank, and Afghan officials, and Afghan business leaders all noted that highway security problems inhibit road construction projects and impede Afghanistan from reaching its full potential as a transit trade link for Central Asia. On March 25, Japanese officials told Econoff that the Japanese 114 km RR construction project from Kandahar to Lashkar Gah has endured almost daily insurgent attacks and requires a 600-person private security contingent. Chinese officials are concerned about insurgent attacks on Chinese contractors building roads and the insecurity of supply routes from Pakistan into Afghanistan (Ref B). Indian Poloff noted that during the construction of the Zaranj-to-Delaram link, 11 Indian nationals and 129 Afghan local hires were killed as a result of insurgent activity. ISAF reports that after Indian construction companies left the site, insurgents stole equipment and set up checkpoints. ¶5. (SBU) It is difficult to find complete estimates of the number of insurgent attacks on trucks and passenger vehicles, but shippers readily note the increased cost of freight transport due to highway insecurity. In a March 17 meeting with the Afghanistan Chamber of KABUL 00000899 002 OF 003 Commerce and Industries (ACCI),CEO Mohammad Qurban Haqjo said that in 2008, at least 300 freight trucks of ACCI members were attacked in the South. Haqjo noted that there has been some progress for freighters but that the cost of business is high and risky because of accidents and insurgent activity. Haqjo said that fuel and cold storage trucks cost USD 100,000 and the loss of these trucks can be devastating for freighters. Zarghuna Walizada, head of ACCI's freight forwarders interest group, told Econoff that security increases the cost of freight forwarding by two to three times. For instance, she said that from Kabul to Kandahar or Helmand province, it costs freighters USD 4,000-5,000 to ship one freight truck. She said if security were not an issue, it would only cost freighters USD 2,000. ¶6. (SBU) On March 24, Deputy Minister of Interior Mangal told Econoff that the current system of highway patrol is "useless" and the lack of adequate police forces at checkpoints leads to high Afghan National Police (ANP) casualties. He noted that nearly half of the RR, particularly in Kandahar, Helmand, Farah, Herat, and Badghis provinces, presented high risk for insurgent ambush attacks and suicide bombings. Mangal advocated re-instituting a highway police force of 8,000 to 15,000 ANP to control insurgent activity along the RR. Mangal noted that the former highway patrol was corrupt and untrustworthy. He said that the international community has not been supportive of this idea because of the degree of corruption and allegations of smuggling among the old force. But he believes that with special training and equipment including heavy weapons and helicopter support, a highway patrol force could be effective. ¶7. (SBU) Mangal also advocated a decentralized approach to highway security whereby each province is responsible for security of roads, including the RR, in their area. Mangal claimed that police corruption is under control as the MOI arrests and brings corrupt officials to trial. Finally, Mangal advocated strong local community involvement in maintaining road security. He said that road construction contractors, particularly the Chinese in Badghis province, should implement community development projects that provide employment and needed infrastructure in order to convince villagers not to cooperate with insurgents (Ref B). Mangal also noted that the Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF),an ANP pilot program in Maidan and Wardak, could serve as a model for community policing. The APPF hires locals as security and provides them with training and equipment. These officers have the same training as ANP but lack arrest power. *************************************** Poor Road Infrastructure, Taxes and Corruption Constrain Economic Potential *************************************** ¶8. (SBU) ACCI business leaders charged that 40 percent of the roads built since 2001 are now unusable because of poor construction. Zarghuna Walizada said road quality varies depending on the nationality of the contractor. For instance, Zarghuna said that roads built by Chinese and Pakistani contractors are the worst quality. Turkish contractor-built roads are better, and the roads built by Iranian and American contractors are the best quality. Zarghuna noted that the RR in much of the north is good. However, on key routes towards Kabul, roads deteriorate greatly. She said that road quality worsens between Kabul and Nangarhar province, particularly near Pul-e Charki. ACCI CEO Haqjo also claimed that the system for contracting is inefficient with too many subcontractors at different levels for each project such that only 20 to 40 percent of project funds are implemented on the ground. He charged that companies cut costs by using low-quality construction materials that are ill-suited for Afghanistan's seasonal variations in weather. ¶9. (SBU) ACCI also offered that roads decay quickly because freighters shipping goods transnationally try to maximize their loads by over loading trucks which puts additional pressure on roads. Haqjo said each axle can carry a maximum of 10 tons; however, in reality, freighters carry from 15-20 tons. Haqjo also noted that since the weight is not evenly distributed on trucks, as trucks stop at the numerous checkpoints, the frequent stoppages put pressure on the trucks, destabilizing the trucks, increasing the risk of accidents, and contributing to road deterioration. KABUL 00000899 003 OF 003 ¶10. (SBU) ACCI said that over-taxation of freight forwarders and corruption within the border police and Customs department are the main concerns of transporters. Haqjo said the police, traffic police, ministries of Finance, Labor, and Public Works, and Customs all collect taxes (legitimate and illegitimate) and bribes. For example, from Herat to Islam Qala, the Herat municipality collects a fee of 10,000 afghanis (about USD 200) per vehicle. (NOTE: Municipalities are allowed to collect certain revenues under the Afghan constitution, but the application of this right may not be uniform across all areas. END NOTE) Haqjo said that President Karzai issued a decree in July 2008 aimed at simplifying and rationalizing the tax code as well as eliminating some nuisance taxes. However, the day after the President issued the decree, the Mayor and Governor of Herat increased the fee and they continue to defy the President's decree. ADB officials say that the Ministry of Transport's passenger and freight tariffs impede growth in the freight transport sector. The ADB is providing technical assistance to the ministry on reforming the tariff structure. ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT: Road security is an enduring concern for all involved: construction contractors, donors, freight forwarders, and government officials. However, MOI's proposal to institute a highway authority has no support, and donors are loath to bring back such a reviled entity. We see no indication that police corruption is under control, and if the comments of Afghan business leaders are accurate, rent-seeking behavior remains rampant on Afghan roads. The rise in legitimate government revenues spurred by improved roads represents good news; the persistence of onerous, unofficial collections on transporters does not. The significance of the Indian-built road in the Southwest remains to be seen. Access to Iranian roads leading to the Chabahar port via the Zaranj-to-Delaram road offers the shortest route to a seaport for Afghanistan and may in time become a rival supply route if security can be maintained. End Comment. RICCIARDONE