Ghorls Tribal Dynamics

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000815

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: Ghorls Tribal Dynamics


1. (SBU) Summary. The alternating conflicts and alliances
of Ghorls three major tribes (Pahlawan, Morghabi, and
Chest-e-Sharif) inhibit the Government of the Islamic Republic
of Afghanistan (GIRoA) from extending their reach into areas
outside the provincial capital, Chaghcharan. The
Pahlawan-dominated local government has little to no control
in the Morghabi-controlled areas to the north or the
Chest-e-Sharif-controlled areas to the west. Persistent
rivalries between tribes provide space for the
anti-government, criminal and Taliban elements to maneuver.
Intra-tribal conflicts over development benefits, food
distribution, and long-standing perceived wrongs further
complicate tribal dynamics in the province. It is highly
unlikely that all three major tribes could be successfully
engaged since the cultural attitude is one of zero sum gain.
Until the GIRoA is strong enough to counter tribal dynamics,
government control of Ghor will be circumscribed in areas where the
locals see the GIRoA as unsupportive of their tribe. End Summary.


2. (U) The three major tribal groups in Ghor province are the Pahlawan
to the south, the Chest-e-Sharif in the west, and the Morghabi in the
north. To the east is the Hazara area, but Hazara traditionally have
had very little political power in the province and are not divided
into sub-tribes. During the last thirty years of conflict the fortunes
of each tribe have ebbed and flowed, but currently the Pahlawan are
ascendant as they are the tribe most connected to GIRoA. In the south
the local-warlord-turned-Member-of-Parliament Dr. Ibrahim holds sway.
He is supportive of the current government in Ghor, but recent changes
in the Chief of Police and Chair of the Provincial Council have removed
his closest allies, and thus reduced his influence in local government.
As a result of continuing conflicts and rivalries with the Chest-e in
the west and the Morghabi tribes in the north, the GIRoA has little to
no control. Local trouble-maker Mullah Mustafa is a leader of the
Chest-e tribe and any attempt to restore order by the
Pahlawan-dominated police is seen as tribal revenge instead of law
enforcement. Mustafa complains that his people do not receive any
humanitarian food distributions (allegedly due to Pahlawan
interference),which justifies pillaging humanitarian food convoys
passing through his area. The police do not have the manpower or the
will to effectively deal with Mustafa, and local officials have
admitted Mustafa acts with impunity. Mustafa also has the support of
western Afghanistan power-broker, former Mujaheddin and current
Minister of Energy Ismail Khan, who personally interceded on his behalf
when Herati police went after Mustafa for attacking GIRoA property.


3. (U) The Morghabi were the former governing power in Ghor (a previous
governor and police chief were Morghabi). Since they fell from power,
they complain they receive few benefits from GIRoA. Consequently they
do not allow the current government to interfere in activities in their
area, especially smuggling of narcotics and weapons. It has been
reported that the Morghabi have a blood feud with current Deputy
Governor Karamuddin Razazada (allied with the Chest-e),and have warned
local officials that he would be killed if he ever came to Char Sadeh.
While General Morghabi expresses his support for the government, there
have been recent thefts from food convoys, and smuggling continues to
be a good business for him. The PRT is cautious about travel to the
area, and in general makes every effort to remain neutral in tribal
disputes.


4. (U) Each player in this game seeks allies where it is able. In the
case of the Chest-e, they reportedly have connections to the Taliban,
but this is likely a temporary alliance with little commitment to
Taliban ideology and instead serves their interest of counter-balancing
the Pahlawan-dominated local government. The exception is the Tulak
district in the south where the Taliban has found an ideological
resonance. Tulak borders districts in Farah and Helmand provinces
where there is no ISAF and/or GIRoA presence. Organizations providing
development and humanitarian assistance studiously avoid the appearance
of helping one tribe or group more than another. In some cases they
concentrate development efforts in areas where they have the resources
to help everyone, to avoid creating conditions for conflict. In Dolat
Yar the ARMY Corps of Engineers came close to canceling a construction
project in 2008 because two local tribes were in dispute over the
location of the district center.

Comment
--------------


5. (SBU) Tribal conflict in Ghor Province is long-standing and
on-going. The three major tribes - Pahlawan, Chest-e and Morghabi Q
have shifting fortunes and alliances, and it is highly unlikely that
all three could be brought together to work to better the province.
The hard living conditions and scarce resources create a zero sum
tribal view Q for one tribe to gain, another must lose. It will be
long process to convince them otherwise since it has been this way for
hundreds of years, and Afghanistan is nothing if not traditional. As
long as this conflict condition persists, the reach of GIRoA will be
possible in areas where the tribe in power is in control, but
circumscribed in areas when the tribes out of power hold sway. To
overcome this, the GIRoA would have to have more political influence
than the tribes and the military strength to counter that of any tribe
that is in dispute. In short, the GIRoA would have to become the
strongest tribe. In the meantime, engagement with any of the tribes
will be a tricky proposition since any money, power, or weapons
injected into one tribe will most likely be used against the other two.

WOOD