Ghorls Tribal Dynamics

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000815 DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM PGOV AF SUBJECT: Ghorls Tribal Dynamics ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The alternating conflicts and alliances of Ghorls three major tribes (Pahlawan, Morghabi, and Chest-e-Sharif) inhibit the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) from extending their reach into areas outside the provincial capital, Chaghcharan. The Pahlawan-dominated local government has little to no control in the Morghabi-controlled areas to the north or the Chest-e-Sharif-controlled areas to the west. Persistent rivalries between tribes provide space for the anti-government, criminal and Taliban elements to maneuver. Intra-tribal conflicts over development benefits, food distribution, and long-standing perceived wrongs further complicate tribal dynamics in the province. It is highly unlikely that all three major tribes could be successfully engaged since the cultural attitude is one of zero sum gain. Until the GIRoA is strong enough to counter tribal dynamics, government control of Ghor will be circumscribed in areas where the locals see the GIRoA as unsupportive of their tribe. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The three major tribal groups in Ghor province are the Pahlawan to the south, the Chest-e-Sharif in the west, and the Morghabi in the north. To the east is the Hazara area, but Hazara traditionally have had very little political power in the province and are not divided into sub-tribes. During the last thirty years of conflict the fortunes of each tribe have ebbed and flowed, but currently the Pahlawan are ascendant as they are the tribe most connected to GIRoA. In the south the local-warlord-turned-Member-of-Parliament Dr. Ibrahim holds sway. He is supportive of the current government in Ghor, but recent changes in the Chief of Police and Chair of the Provincial Council have removed his closest allies, and thus reduced his influence in local government. As a result of continuing conflicts and rivalries with the Chest-e in the west and the Morghabi tribes in the north, the GIRoA has little to no control. Local trouble-maker Mullah Mustafa is a leader of the Chest-e tribe and any attempt to restore order by the Pahlawan-dominated police is seen as tribal revenge instead of law enforcement. Mustafa complains that his people do not receive any humanitarian food distributions (allegedly due to Pahlawan interference),which justifies pillaging humanitarian food convoys passing through his area. The police do not have the manpower or the will to effectively deal with Mustafa, and local officials have admitted Mustafa acts with impunity. Mustafa also has the support of western Afghanistan power-broker, former Mujaheddin and current Minister of Energy Ismail Khan, who personally interceded on his behalf when Herati police went after Mustafa for attacking GIRoA property. ¶3. (U) The Morghabi were the former governing power in Ghor (a previous governor and police chief were Morghabi). Since they fell from power, they complain they receive few benefits from GIRoA. Consequently they do not allow the current government to interfere in activities in their area, especially smuggling of narcotics and weapons. It has been reported that the Morghabi have a blood feud with current Deputy Governor Karamuddin Razazada (allied with the Chest-e),and have warned local officials that he would be killed if he ever came to Char Sadeh. While General Morghabi expresses his support for the government, there have been recent thefts from food convoys, and smuggling continues to be a good business for him. The PRT is cautious about travel to the area, and in general makes every effort to remain neutral in tribal disputes. ¶4. (U) Each player in this game seeks allies where it is able. In the case of the Chest-e, they reportedly have connections to the Taliban, but this is likely a temporary alliance with little commitment to Taliban ideology and instead serves their interest of counter-balancing the Pahlawan-dominated local government. The exception is the Tulak district in the south where the Taliban has found an ideological resonance. Tulak borders districts in Farah and Helmand provinces where there is no ISAF and/or GIRoA presence. Organizations providing development and humanitarian assistance studiously avoid the appearance of helping one tribe or group more than another. In some cases they concentrate development efforts in areas where they have the resources to help everyone, to avoid creating conditions for conflict. In Dolat Yar the Army Corps of Engineers came close to canceling a construction project in 2008 because two local tribes were in dispute over the location of the district center. Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Tribal conflict in Ghor Province is long-standing and on-going. The three major tribes - Pahlawan, Chest-e and Morghabi Q have shifting fortunes and alliances, and it is highly unlikely that all three could be brought together to work to better the province. The hard living conditions and scarce resources create a zero sum tribal view Q for one tribe to gain, another must lose. It will be long process to convince them otherwise since it has been this way for hundreds of years, and Afghanistan is nothing if not traditional. As long as this conflict condition persists, the reach of GIRoA will be possible in areas where the tribe in power is in control, but circumscribed in areas when the tribes out of power hold sway. To overcome this, the GIRoA would have to have more political influence than the tribes and the military strength to counter that of any tribe that is in dispute. In short, the GIRoA would have to become the strongest tribe. In the meantime, engagement with any of the tribes will be a tricky proposition since any money, power, or weapons injected into one tribe will most likely be used against the other two. WOOD