DSRAP JONES DISCUSSES ELECTIONS AND CONTINUITY OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000690 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AF SUBJECT: DSRAP JONES DISCUSSES ELECTIONS AND CONTINUITY OF LEADERSHIP WITH AFGHAN OPPOSITION Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Dell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a series of meetings on 3/15-16 with Deputy Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan (DSRAP) Paul Jones, Afghan presidential candidates and opposition political leaders discussed the upcoming election and the options for continuity of leadership between the end of President Karzai's term and his successor's inauguration. The politicians all accepted the 8/20 election date, but opinions sharply diverged on how to bridge the gap between the constitutional expiration of Karzai's term on 5/22 and the inauguration of the next president. DSRAP Jones shared the U.S. view that Karzai should remain in office during the interim period to maintain clear presidential authority. At the same time, the U.S. saw the need to ensure a level playing field for other candidates during the campaign period, leading to open, fair and credible elections. MOJADEDDI: WILLING TO SERVE AS CARETAKER PRESIDENT ¶2. (C) Upper House Speaker Sebghatullah Mojadeddi told DSRAP 3/16 that while he personally supports President Karzai remaining in office through the post-8/20 inauguration, most MPs do not. To resolve this brewing dispute, Mojadeddi would agree to serve as caretaker president post-5/22 until the next president takes office, but added that he had no personal desire to do so. In the same discussion, Mojadeddi urged the U.S. to pressure Pakistan to control cross-border insurgent activity and to re-assert authority over its intelligence service. Jones assured Mojadeddi the U.S. would continue to support Pakistan's civilian government and facilitate discussions between U.S., Afghan, and Pakistan agencies to further promote coordinated counterterrorism efforts. QANOONI: OPPOSES EXTENDING KARZAI PRESIDENCY BUT OPEN TO CONSENSUS RESOLUTION ¶3. (C) Lower House Speaker Qanooni maintained his opposition to President Karzai remaining in office after 5/22. Qanooni based cited both constitutional and political concerns: Article 61 of the Constitution states the president's term ends on 5/22 and Qanooni fears Karzai will misuse his presidential powers to disadvantage any challengers. However, Qanooni welcomed a continuing dialogue on how to more forward in forming a consensus resolution to this issue. He also expressed concern about what he predicted would be a high level of election fraud. HAZARA LEADER MOHAQQEQ: OPTIONS FOR INTERIM LEADERSHIP ¶4. (C) Hazara leader MP Mohammad Mohaqqeq said his Wahdat party is unlikely to run a presidential candidate and will likely chose to support an opposition candidate. Mohaqqeq said Karzai had approached him, seeking his support, but Mohaqqeq had refused to commit. On the issue of presidential continuity, Mohaqqeq proposed three possible solutions 1) Karzai remains in power, but senior members of his government are replaced by interim caretakers, including: key ministers (Interior, Justice, Defense, etc.),the Director of the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG),and senior leaders of the Independent Elections Commission (IEC); 2) the Cabinet remains in place and an interim President is appointed; or 3) both the President and Cabinet are replaced. JUNBESH LEADER NOORULLAH: JUNBESH SUPPORT STILL UP FOR GRABS ¶5. (C) Junbesh Party Leader Sayed Noorullah noted that most people now accept the 8/20 election date, but stressed the importance of resolving the presidential continuity issue. Noorullah proposed that Karzai should stay in office but agree not to run for re-election. Noorullah also said political parties should assume a more prominent role in national politics. While Junbesh supported election of a president, the party's general position is Afghanistan should have a true parliamentary system headed by a prime minister. Noorullah said Junbesh still had not decided between supporting Karzai or an opposition candidate and was engaging in talks (negotiations) with several different groups, including Mohaqqeq's Wahdat party. According to Noorullah, Junbesh and Wahdat had agreed to support the same candidate. (Mohaqqeq did not confirm this agreement.) ASHRAF GHANI: SUPPORTS KARZAI REMAINING DURING INTERIM WITH CERTAIN RESTRICTIONS ¶6. (C) Ashraf Ghani, presidential candidate and former Finance Minister, supported Karzai remaining through the interim period if political leaders and Karzai could agreed KABUL 00000690 002 OF 002 to some limitations on Karzai's powers post-5/22. This consensus should be reached as soon as possible, definitely by the end of April, Ghani warned. Otherwise, Ghani fears Afghans may organize potentially violent street demonstrations beginning May 23 to protest Karzai's remaining past his constitutionally mandated term. The limitations Ghani suggested included requiring all civil servants to sign a code of conduct barring them from involvement in election-related activities and establishing an independent commission with the power to promptly fire violators of this code. Ghani also suggested the opposition candidates and Karzai should agree to not politicize certain topics such as civilian casualties. Ghani predicted the field of serious opposition candidates would narrow, but not to one primary challenger. He offered his view that there was a 30 percent chance Karzai would decide not to run for re-election. AHADI: SUPPORTS REPLACING KARZAI IN INTERIM OR KEY MEMBERS OF HIS GOVERNMENT ¶7. (C) Presidential candidate and former Finance Minister Anwarulhaq Ahadi described himself as a long-time friend of Karzai's and claimed he had chosen to run for the presidency because Karzai had urged him to do so a year ago. According to Ahadi, Karzai said then he was not planning to seek re-election. Ahadi believed that Karzai should not run again and feared people would protest in the streets if Karzai did not leave office on 5/22. Ahadi believed Karzai would undoubtedly use his position to unfairly influence the election. Instead, Upper House Speaker Mojadeddi should assume control of the government (with restraints on his power) in the interim, or someone else if the senior leadership could reach political consensus on another caretaker. However, if Karzai did remain through the interim, Ahadi stressed that strong measures should be taken to ensure a level playing field for all candidates. He suggested, 1) removing those Karzai administration officials likely to use their influence to Karzai's benefit; 2) replacing the leadership of the IEC; and 3) pushing the election date back even further to allow for a longer, more vigorous campaign period. Finally, Ahadi said he wanted Dr. Abdullah Abdullah to be his running mate, but recognized that was unlikely as Abdullah has his own presidential aspirations. PIR GAILANI: OPPOSITION SHOULD UNITE BEHIND SINGLE CANDIDATE, BUT CONSENSUS UNLIKELY ¶8. (C) Pir Sayed Gailani, head of a prominent and influential Afghan family said the opposition parties should work together to choose a candidate behind whom they could all unite. He has hosted several gatherings among opposition leaders, but the group has thus far failed to reach consensus on a candidate. He believed that the most worrisome issue facing the country was resolving the issue of presidential continuity. Gailani offered two options: 1) Karzai decides not to run and remains in office until his successor's inauguration; and 2) Karzai remains (and runs for re-election),but with certain authorities limited to prevent him exercising unfair advantage. ¶9. (U) DSRAP Paul Jones cleared this message. WOOD