DSRAP JONES DISCUSSES ELECTIONS AND CONTINUITY OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000690

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AF
SUBJECT: DSRAP JONES DISCUSSES ELECTIONS AND CONTINUITY OF
LEADERSHIP WITH AFGHAN OPPOSITION

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Dell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a series of meetings on 3/15-16 with
Deputy Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan
(DSRAP) Paul Jones, Afghan presidential candidates and
opposition political leaders discussed the upcoming election
and the options for continuity of leadership between the end
of President Karzai's term and his successor's inauguration.
The politicians all accepted the 8/20 election date, but
opinions sharply diverged on how to bridge the gap between
the constitutional expiration of Karzai's term on 5/22 and
the inauguration of the next president. DSRAP Jones shared
the U.S. view that Karzai should remain in office during the
interim period to maintain clear presidential authority. At
the same time, the U.S. saw the need to ensure a level
playing field for other candidates during the campaign
period, leading to open, fair and credible elections.

MOJADEDDI: WILLING TO SERVE AS CARETAKER PRESIDENT


2. (C) Upper House Speaker Sebghatullah Mojadeddi told
DSRAP 3/16 that while he personally supports President Karzai
remaining in office through the post-8/20 inauguration, most
MPs do not. To resolve this brewing dispute, Mojadeddi would
agree to serve as caretaker president post-5/22 until the
next president takes office, but added that he had no
personal desire to do so. In the same discussion, Mojadeddi
urged the U.S. to pressure Pakistan to control cross-border
insurgent activity and to re-assert authority over its
intelligence service. Jones assured Mojadeddi the U.S. would
continue to support Pakistan's civilian government and
facilitate discussions between U.S., Afghan, and Pakistan
agencies to further promote coordinated counterterrorism
efforts.

QANOONI: OPPOSES EXTENDING KARZAI PRESIDENCY BUT OPEN TO
CONSENSUS RESOLUTION


3. (C) Lower House Speaker Qanooni maintained his
opposition to President
Karzai remaining in office after 5/22. Qanooni based cited
both constitutional and political concerns: Article 61 of the
Constitution states the president's term ends on 5/22 and
Qanooni fears Karzai will misuse his presidential powers to
disadvantage any challengers. However, Qanooni welcomed a
continuing dialogue on how to more forward in forming a
consensus resolution to this issue. He also expressed
concern about what he predicted would be a high level of
election fraud.

HAZARA LEADER MOHAQQEQ: OPTIONS FOR INTERIM LEADERSHIP


4. (C) Hazara leader MP Mohammad Mohaqqeq said his Wahdat
party is unlikely to run a presidential candidate and will
likely chose to support an opposition candidate. Mohaqqeq
said Karzai had approached him, seeking his support, but
Mohaqqeq had refused to commit. On the issue of presidential
continuity, Mohaqqeq proposed three possible solutions 1)
Karzai remains in power, but senior members of his government
are replaced by interim caretakers, including: key ministers
(Interior, Justice, Defense, etc.),the Director of the
Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG),and
senior leaders of the Independent Elections Commission (IEC);
2) the Cabinet remains in place and an interim President is
appointed; or 3) both the President and Cabinet are replaced.


JUNBESH LEADER NOORULLAH: JUNBESH SUPPORT STILL UP FOR GRABS


5. (C) Junbesh Party Leader Sayed Noorullah noted that most
people now accept the 8/20 election date, but stressed the
importance of resolving the presidential continuity issue.
Noorullah proposed that Karzai should stay in office but
agree not to run for re-election. Noorullah also said
political parties should assume a more prominent role in
national politics. While Junbesh supported election of a
president, the party's general position is Afghanistan should
have a true parliamentary system headed by a prime minister.
Noorullah said Junbesh still had not decided between
supporting Karzai or an opposition candidate and was engaging
in talks (negotiations) with several different groups,
including Mohaqqeq's Wahdat party. According to Noorullah,
Junbesh and Wahdat had agreed to support the same candidate.
(Mohaqqeq did not confirm this agreement.)

ASHRAF GHANI: SUPPORTS KARZAI REMAINING DURING INTERIM WITH
CERTAIN RESTRICTIONS


6. (C) Ashraf Ghani, presidential candidate and former
Finance Minister, supported Karzai remaining through the
interim period if political leaders and Karzai could agreed

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to some limitations on Karzai's powers post-5/22. This
consensus should be reached as soon as possible, definitely
by the end of April, Ghani warned. Otherwise, Ghani fears
Afghans may organize potentially violent street
demonstrations beginning May 23 to protest Karzai's remaining
past his constitutionally mandated term. The limitations
Ghani suggested included requiring all civil servants to sign
a code of conduct barring them from involvement in
election-related activities and establishing an independent
commission with the power to promptly fire violators of this
code. Ghani also suggested the opposition candidates and
Karzai should agree to not politicize certain topics such as
civilian casualties. Ghani predicted the field of serious
opposition candidates would narrow, but not to one primary
challenger. He offered his view that there was a 30 percent
chance Karzai would decide not to run for re-election.

AHADI: SUPPORTS REPLACING KARZAI IN INTERIM OR KEY MEMBERS OF
HIS GOVERNMENT


7. (C) Presidential candidate and former Finance Minister
Anwarulhaq Ahadi described himself as a long-time friend of
Karzai's and claimed he had chosen to run for the presidency
because Karzai had urged him to do so a year ago. According
to Ahadi, Karzai said then he was not planning to seek
re-election. Ahadi believed that Karzai should not run again
and feared people would protest in the streets if Karzai did
not leave office on 5/22. Ahadi believed Karzai would
undoubtedly use his position to unfairly influence the
election. Instead, Upper House Speaker Mojadeddi should
assume control of the government (with restraints on his
power) in the interim, or someone else if the senior
leadership could reach political consensus on another
caretaker. However, if Karzai did remain through the
interim, Ahadi stressed that strong measures should be taken
to ensure a level playing field for all candidates. He
suggested, 1) removing those Karzai administration officials
likely to use their influence to Karzai's benefit; 2)
replacing the leadership of the IEC; and 3) pushing the
election date back even further to allow for a longer, more
vigorous campaign period. Finally, Ahadi said he wanted Dr.
Abdullah Abdullah to be his running mate, but recognized that
was unlikely as Abdullah has his own presidential
aspirations.

PIR GAILANI: OPPOSITION SHOULD UNITE BEHIND SINGLE CANDIDATE,
BUT CONSENSUS UNLIKELY


8. (C) Pir Sayed Gailani, head of a prominent and
influential Afghan family said the opposition parties should
work together to choose a candidate behind whom they could
all unite. He has hosted several gatherings among opposition
leaders, but the group has thus far failed to reach consensus
on a candidate. He believed that the most worrisome issue
facing the country was resolving the issue of presidential
continuity. Gailani offered two options: 1) Karzai decides
not to run and remains in office until his successor's
inauguration; and 2) Karzai remains (and runs for
re-election),but with certain authorities limited to prevent
him exercising unfair advantage.


9. (U) DSRAP Paul Jones cleared this message.
WOOD