BAMYAN: Six Month Review

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000613 DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM AF SUBJECT: BAMYAN: Six Month Review ¶1. (SBU) Summary: While Bamyan remains one of the most secure provinces in Afghanistan, instability and violence are on the rise, particularly in the northeast corner of the province. The central Afghan province is seeing increased Iranian influence. Financial assistance from the Afghan Government remains problematic, but total development assistance is increasing dramatically thanks to a large increase in Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) funds. Provincial governance in Bamyan has witnessed slow and steady improvement, but remains dependent on a small handful of capable people. End Summary. Growing Security Incidents and Iranian Influence -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The number of violent incidents in Bamyan continue to grow, albeit from a very low base. While the majority of incidents, including IED attacks of an increasingly sophisticated nature, continue to take place in the northeast (Tajik-dominated) corner of the province where the violence is linked to coal-smuggling and anti-government sympathizers, violence is also seeping into other parts of the province. For example, a bicycle-borne-IED was detonated in the Bamyan town bazaar in October 2008. Reports of highway robbery, generally involving men dressed in Afghan National Army (ANA) or Afghan National Police (ANP) uniforms, continue to increase throughout the province. The local law enforcement authorities have been unsuccessful in arresting and convicting anyone involved in these incidents. ¶3. (SBU) Iranian influence in the province is more apparent, particularly in the south and west of the province. Iranian development assistance is funding winter humanitarian assistance and the construction of small pharmacies and shops in remote areas, as well as the construction of a technical school not far from the PRT and provincial government offices. More sinister are increasing reports of Iranian "agents," including ethnic Hazaran mullahs returning from religious training in Iran, appearing in villages to encourage resistance to the government and coalition forces. To date, no acts of violence have been linked to these agents. Afghan National Police Needs More Training and More Time -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The ANP force in Bamyan remains weak, underfunded, undermanned, undertrained, and of limited effectiveness. While Chief of Police General Ewaz enjoys a reputation as a skilled and effective manager, the force appears to be many years away from being capable of providing adequate security to the province. There are no ANA forces in the province. In 2008, Bamyan's Regional Training Center (RTC) trained 665 police officers from 15 provinces, of which 328 were from Bamyan province, including 15 women. This year the RTC initiated the country's only criminal investigation course. The RTC compound is in quite poor condition and is too small to meet the annual demand for training. The provincial government has identified a site for construction of a new RTC, but a sponsor for construction has not been identified. More Development, But Still Not Enough -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Development spending in Bamyan is increasing dramatically, thanks primarily to the rapid expansion of CERP spending (approximately USD 9 million was spent in 2008 and a projected 25 million will be allocated in 2009) focused on infrastructure projects: principally roads, but also on schools and water/flood control projects. In addition to NGO funding, USAID, New Zealand Aid, and the Singapore Armed Forces also contribute to projects emanating from the PRT, which is led by New Zealand. The largest projects in the works are the Asian Development Bank (ADB) funded Bamyan-to-Yakawlang road and a CERP-funded project to widen and pave the road leading from the border with Parwan province to Bamyan center. Also, Bamyan's "new town," located directly south of the PRT, witnessed the completion or near-completion of several new government compounds. Despite the rapid increase in development activity, most Bamyan residents remain convinced that the province is underserved when compared to more unstable and insecure parts of the country. Governance Reliant on a Capable Few -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Bamyan Province is led by Afghanistan's only female governor, who maintains an active and high profile in the province and continues to enjoy significant support among the population. Governor Sarobi, with assistance from the PRT and the UNAMA Central Highlands office, instituted this year quarterly "development KABUL 00000613 002 OF 002 working group" conferences, which serve as action-forcing events, pressing line ministries to make decisions and commit to fulfilling their responsibilities. She also maintains authority over the line ministries through an annual Provincial Accountability and Transparency Conference at which each ministry must publicly disclose and discuss its annual budget and plans for the upcoming year in a public forum. These governance improvements do not translate to Bamyan's district administrators, whose performance is more mixed. A few, notably the district administrator of Sayghan, are quite capable, but the performance of others ranges from obviously corrupt to simply incompetent. ¶7. (SBU) The judicial sector remains weak, with woefully inadequate facilities, underpaid judges, limited training, and no case management system. While a new Ministry of Justice building opened in Bamyan Center, district judges are in makeshift offices that serve as office space, living space and court room, all in one. The single prison in the province is a rented house modified to hold prisoners, with no separation for female or juvenile prisoners. District judges must rely on people in the community for everything from transportation to accommodation and food, creating, if nothing else, the perception of conflicts of interest. Bamyan province's judiciary participated in some form of training this past summer: all judges and some provincial prosecutors attended a session on the implementation of law, and additional legal training was provided by international NGOs. ¶8. (SBU) The Provincial Council (PC) continues to struggle to find its role and may be suffering from a general sense of fatigue, resulting from the lack of a clear mandate and the upcoming end of its tenure with the upcoming elections. PC attendance at sectoral working group meetings is sporadic and it is possible that PC members are feeling increasingly isolated from the provincial government, as most government entities move into new accommodations in Bamyan's new town, while the PC continues to meet in an extremely dilapidated building on what is becoming "the area formerly known as Government hill." WOOD