SHERZAI TELLS CHARGE HE WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000543 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019 TAGS: PGOV AF SUBJECT: SHERZAI TELLS CHARGE HE WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT REF: KABUL 172 Classified By: CDA Christopher Dell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Nangarhar Gov. Gul Aqa Sherzai told the Charge on 3/10 that he would run for the presidency in this year's election. Sherzai said he has been approached over the past year by Members of Parliament, political and religious leaders, tribal elders, and academics urging him to run for the office. He first told President Karzai of his interest in running more than 10 months ago, but said he wanted to wait until the current debate over presidential continuity settles down before making a public announcement. He did not expect Karzai to immediately seek his removal as governor. Sherzai acknowledged he would need support from other groups outside of his Barakzai tribe and Nangarhar political network to succeed. He believed Lower House Speaker Yunus Qanooni might support his campaign if Qanooni's United Front coalition could not settle on its own candidate, but Sherzai made clear that he does not want to be a candidate for the United Front. ¶2. (C) The Charge told Sherzai the U.S. strongly supports the August election date and believes Karzai should remain in office after the 5/22 constitutional expiration of his term and through the inauguration of the next president. Afghanistan could not afford the distraction of forming a caretaker government with a new temporary leader during the summer months, when Taliban offensives were at their most intense. However, the U.S. understood opposition concerns that Karzai would unfairly use government resources to aid his re-election campaign. To that end, the U.S. encouraged Afghan political leaders, including Karzai, to agree to voluntary limitations on the president's authority to satisfy opposition candidates that the election would be free, fair, open, and transparent. The Charge suggested to Sherzai that, given his popular following, the governor would be a "serious candidate who would make the campaign interesting." The Charge added that the U.S. had no favored candidate and would not back any one candidate over another. ¶3. (C) Sherzai agreed continuity and stability were important concerns for the transition period, and that any interim president would be inherently "weak." However, the governor believed Karzai had already begun exploiting government resources to his advantage, including having members of the Supreme Court, Cabinet, and Independent Directorate for Local Governance campaign on his behalf. Sherzai felt Supreme Court Chief Justice Azimi should discipline members of the judiciary who interfered in the election. The Charge agreed the impartiality of the judicial branch was an important concern to ensure a fair election. ¶4. (C) Speculation over Sherzai's possible candidacy has been a hot topic among Kabul's chattering classes for months (reftel). He now appears set to enter the race as one of the few candidates to boast genuine public enthusiasm for his campaign and elected officials willing to publicly endorse him in the early stages of the campaign. As a Kandahari Pashtun with strong family, ethnic, and business ties to that province (where he served as governor until 2005),Sherzai is someone Karzai will need to take seriously as a challenger. Lower House MP Khalid Pashtun (Kandahar, Pashtun),who accompanied Sherzai to his meeting with the Charge, told PolOff he was serving as the campaign's chief of staff. Khalid Pashtun, fluent in English and a U.S. citizen, recognizes that he'll need to polish the governor's sharper edges to make him more palatable to Kabul elite and the international community. He named MPs Safia Sediqi (Nangarhar, Pashtun),Haji Zainulabudin Farid (Kapisa, Pashtun) and Abdul Wali Ahmadzai (Logar, Pashtun) as other Sherzai supporters who had joined the campaign. DELL