UPPER HOUSE REPSONDS TO KARZAI'S ELECTION DATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000466 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV AF SUBJECT: UPPER HOUSE REPSONDS TO KARZAI'S ELECTION DATE DECREE REF: KABUL 455 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Valerie Fowler for reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Upper House MPs issued a statement on 3/1 supporting the Independent Election Commission's (IEC) earlier announcement of an 8/20 election date, and called on President Karzai to step aside in favor of a caretaker government after 5/22 or not stand for re-election. The Upper House statement came in reaction to Karzai's 2/28 decree instructing the IEC to set an election date in accordance with the Constitution (reftel). The Upper House overwhelmingly objected to moving the election date forward, with only five MPs voting against the statement. Deputy Speaker Hamed Gailani said MPs were so convinced by the IEC's earlier explanation that free and secure elections could not be held before August that they decided to break with their traditional support for the president. Gailani has asked Lower House Speaker Yunus Qanooni to have the Lower House issue a similar statement. ¶2. (C) In their statement, MPs noted they accept the IEC's rationale for an 8/20 election on the condition that a post-5/22 caretaker government be led by Upper House Speaker Sebghatullah Mojaddedi under the presidential succession provisions in the Constitution. If Karzai and other political leaders do not accept Mojaddedi as caretaker, the Upper House would call for Karzai to remain in office throughout the transition period but insist that he not stand for re-election. ¶3. (C) Gailani told POLOFF very little support among MPs exists for Mojaddedi to serve as a caretaker president, and that the conditionality was created out of deference to Mojaddedi's interest in serving in the position. Once negotiations with other political leaders over presidential continuity were revived, the Upper House would drop the condition. Gailani explained that MPs were more concerned that a caretaker government led by Karzai would improperly influence the election in the president's favor, undermining the legitimacy of the election. ¶4. (C) POLOFF outlined U.S. support for a free, fair, open, and transparent election on 8/20 and a Karzai-led caretaker government to maintain stability during the period of heavy fighting against insurgents over the summer months. Gailani appreciated the U.S. commitment to the 8/20 date and promised to consider the U.S. position on presidential continuity before traveling to London and Washington later this month. DELL