PRT LASHKAR GAH, HELMAND PROVINCE: FOOD ZONE INITIATIVE AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000045 KABUL FOR USFOR-A COS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM, INL/AP STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA NSC FOR WOOD OSD FOR WILKES CG CJTF-101 POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MCAP MOPS SNAR PREL PGOV PTER PHUM AF SUBJECT: PRT LASHKAR GAH, HELMAND PROVINCE: FOOD ZONE INITIATIVE AND HIGH WHEAT PRICES WILL REDUCE POPPY CROP IN 2009 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Initial reports indicate that the 2009 poppy crop in Helmand Province will be smaller than in 2008, with some local reports suggesting a 30 percent reduction. High wheat prices and low opium prices have influenced farmers' decisions. However, the new factor this year is Governor Mangal's USAID-sponsored Food Zone program. Mangal's program combined providing free wheat seed to over 30,000 Helmand farmers with the threat of eradicating fields and/or arresting farmers who plant poppy. With the law enforcement phase set to begin in late January, the program has attracted wide support from farmers who foresee improved and profitable wheat yields during 2009. End summary. 2009 - A Smaller Poppy Crop in Helmand -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Helmand farmers planted approximately 100,000 hectares of poppy in 2008, but local officials and numerous farmers insist the poppy crop will be as much as 30 percent less in 2009. (UNODC also predicts a reduced Helmand poppy crop in 2009.) Farmers told USAID they moved significant hectares, previously used for the poppy crop, into wheat production. Many said high wheat prices are the main reason they switched. Meanwhile, in Lashkar Gah the price for quality wheat is almost three times the 2008 price and imports of corn from Pakistan and wheat from Turkmenistan have increased to offset the higher prices. ¶3. (SBU) In 2008, wheat prices also rose while opium prices stayed low following record poppy crops in 2006 and 2007. This led many, including the UK Embassy, to predict sharply lower poppy cultivation levels in the province. However, Helmand cultivation, which had exploded fourfold between 2005 and 2007, again expanded slightly in ¶2008. At the same time, poppy cultivation fell 19 percent in Afghanistan as a whole. Prices alone were not enough to turn Helmand farmers from poppy planting last year. The Food Zone -- Carrot Plus Stick -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Helmand Governor Mangal's "Food Zone" program is a new factor this year. Since August, Mangal has used a combination of public information, agricultural assistance, and loud threats of law enforcement to move farmers away from poppy planting. With U.S. and UK support, Mangal has provided free wheat seed to over 30,000 farmers in the densest poppy-growing area in the world; many farmers also received fertilizer from USAID. The seed distributed through the program is superior to locally available seed; farmers said the quality of the inputs was a significant factor influencing their decision to grow wheat. USAID reports that in the central district of Nad-e Ali, 75 percent of farmers participated in the program and some larger farmers moved their land back into wheat production. The district administrators of Gereshk and Garmsir said the poppy crop will be significantly lower in their areas and credited the Food Zone initiative for moving the farmers away from poppy production. ¶5. (SBU) On January 4, at a shura of over 400 local leaders from all over Helmand, Governor Mangal announced the beginning of the law enforcement phase of the Food Zone program. During the previous phases of the program, Mangal had made delivery of agricultural assistance to farmers contingent on their pledge not to plant poppy. His public information campaign similarly stressed that anyone planting poppy will be subject to arrest and that poppy fields would be eradicated. The primary "stick" Mangal pointed to was the U.S-supported Afghan National Police (ANP) Poppy Eradication Force (PEF),which eradicated in Nad-e Ali in 2007 and 2008. This year, law enforcement efforts in the Food Zone will be more thorough. An ISAF battle group began clearing insurgents from central Nad-e Ali in December to prepare for subsequent eradication operations. The PEF, protected by a U.S.-supported 600-man Afghan National Army battalion, will conduct eradication of poppy fields in Nad-e Ali from late January through early April. At the same time, local police will eradicate poppy in the eastern part of the Food Zone near Lashkar Gah. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Mangal's initiative, helped by high wheat prices and low poppy prices, will be a decisive factor in reducing poppy cultivation in Helmand this year, and could provide a model for broader reductions in the future. Anticipating a reduced crop in KABUL 00000045 002 OF 002 Helmand, a number of provincial leaders in the South have already approached the central government, as well as the United States and UK, to request assistance in developing similar "Food Zone" programs in their regions. While we cannot always count on such advantageous agricultural prices or sustained political will to combat poppy cultivation, when they come together - as in Helmand this year - the chances of successful reduction are obviously greatly enhanced. Sustaining any gains made this year, however, will require long-term efforts combining conditional agricultural assistance with credible law enforcement to push narcotics production out of the fertile irrigated lands along the Helmand River. WOOD