SOME POLITICAL FACTIONS WANT A 2010 DELAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 004151 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: SOME POLITICAL FACTIONS WANT A 2010 DELAY REF: A. KABUL 4147 ¶B. KABUL 4001 Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Although key presidential staff claimed to us that Parliament was "unanimous" in its view that the 2010 Parliamentary elections must proceed on time (reftel A), privately, many MPs have told us they would support a delay if it meant there would be electoral reform (and since they could keep their salaries another year). However, Parliament's role in the decision-making process is limited, and currently Parliamentarians are distracted by the cabinet approval process. End Summary. -------------- What Does the Opposition Think? -------------- ¶2. (C) There is no true "opposition" in Afghanistan since shifting alliances among occasional opposition figures such as former presidential candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and his strongest powerbroker supporters Professor Rabbani and Lower House Speaker Qanooni reveal their different objectives. These leaders have never formed a truly issue-based political movement together, and they compete for leadership (primarily of the Tajiks),but now that they have been kept out of the government by Karzai, they may be as close to an opposition as it gets. This group remains divided, as demonstrated for example by Rabbani's decision to negotiate with Karzai without Abdullah. Similarly, Qanooni has decided to improve his relationship with the Presidential Palace in the last few weeks, while continuing to play both sides. ¶3. (C) Supporters of delaying 2010 Parliamentary elections cross the divide, however, as several are found within the Karzai government. The following political powerbrokers and parties have expressed to us their support for a delay, if it meant electoral reform and improved elections in 2011: -- Professor Rabbani and former Presidential candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah both support a delay if it means that there will be electoral reform. Primarily, they ask for an overhaul of the IEC. Abdullah was unequivocal that implementing needed electoral reforms trump the need to hold these elections on time when he meet with Deputy Ambassador Ricciardone on December 13. He said the composition of the next Parliament will be a key determinant on whether or not Afghanistan will consolidate its democracy. Professor Rabbani's party Jamiat, would not support elections unless there was IEC reform and a "better voting system" according to his son, who noted the numerous fraudulent voter registration cards. Former Abdullah campaign manager and Rabbani's candidate for Interior Minister Satar Murad told us recently the former Northern Alliance group generally supported the idea of a delay, as it would cause a constitutional crisis and further weaken Karzai. This would increase the likelihood of a new constitution that could move power to the provinces, such as a Parliamentary system, he enthused. -- The moderate and influential Gailani family has indicated to us that they would also support a delay in the elections. The Gailani family, although usually divided in at least two camps, is in agreement on this issue. Upper House Deputy Speaker and Karzai's ministerial candidate for Border and Tribal Affairs Hamid Gailani (Pasthun, Paktia) told us on December 19 that "almost all" of the MPs would be happy to stay on and keep their salaries another year, and acknowledged the need for significant electoral reform before another election was held. He said 2/3 of the Upper House already has expired terms, and have "quietly stayed on." He said a more transparent legal solution would need to be found for the higher-profile Lower House, but said without further explanation that "this solution could be found easily." -- Junbesh. This primarily Uzbek and Turkmen political party told us that they would support a delay if it meant that electoral reforms would take place. The Junbesh party is somewhat divided between the pro-Dostum camp and the pro-reformist camps -- both agree that a delayed election is acceptable, as it would allow more time for electoral reform, while additional coalition troops would be given more time to improve security by 2011. Finally, reconciliation would be more effective if there was a political space, like the Parliament, that would allow former Taliban representation. If the elections came too early, any reconciled Taliban would have to wait five years to run as a MP candidate. ¶4. (C) Comment: The decision to delay the Parliamentary KABUL 00004151 002 OF 002 elections remains in the hands of Karzai, who controls the IEC and the Supreme Court. Parliament's role in the decision is limited to its influence over Karzai. Several MPs have significant influence at the Palace, to include the Gailani and Mojaddedi families, Junbesh, and some occasional friends of Rabbani's Jamiat party, to include Marshall Fahim. We continue to engage with these individuals in an effort to frame the discussion about the pros and cons of on a time 2010 Parliamentary election. That said, much like Karzai is lobbying the Parliament to approve members of his proposed cabinet, he similarly has engaged with MPs in an attempt to push for elections in 2010 so that he can, according to many MPs, consolidate his power by stacking the Parliament with his supporters. End Comment. RICCIARDONE