AFGHAN CABINET CONFIRMATION PROCESS UNDERWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 004137

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN CABINET CONFIRMATION PROCESS UNDERWAY

Classified By: PolCouns A. Pforzheimer reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Lower House of the Afghan Parliament
began the cabinet approval process on December 21, and
announced they would not vote on ministers until after all of
the confirmation hearings. Most MPs think this process will
end before mid-January; meanwhile, acting ministers are
limited to maintaining daily operations. The ministers are
intensely lobbying MPs by offering meals, jobs for their
supporters, and cash. Most MPs tell us that the Finance,
Mines, Interior, Energy, Culture, Commerce, Work and Social
Affairs, Higher Education, and Health Ministers are most
likely to face the most intense Parliamentary scrutiny, but
only two or three ultimately may fail to meet Parliamentary
approval. End Summary.

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Cabinet Confirmation Procedure
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2. (C) Lower House (Wolesi Jirga, or WJ) Speaker Yunus
Qanooni (Tajik, Kabul) announced December 21 that the WJ
would wait to vote on the cabinet nominations until all
candidates had confirmation hearings, although WJ leadership
has waffled on the question of whether or not they will wait
for the final nominations, including positions not yet
submitted such as Foreign Affairs, or just vote on the first
23 nominations currently at the Parliament. The decision to
wait was approved by a majority vote on the same day.
Speaker Qanooni noted this was done because President Karzai
did not meet the WJ's demand to receive all of the
nominations at once. MPs voiced public concern in particular
about Foreign Minister Spanta who Karzai announced would stay
on until the January 28 London Conference, since he had
received a no-confidence vote by the Parliament in 2007 yet
was allowed to remain on for years. (Note: Karzai also had
allowed Minister of Hajj Chekari and Border and Tribal
Affairs Khalid's to stay on indefinitely in the previous term
despite votes of no confidence. End Note.) The WJ claimed
it will introduce a bill to establish term limits for acting
ministers on December 23.


3. (C) In 2006 the WJ voted on the nominations on the day of
the confirmation hearings, and averaged one or two ministers
per day. On only one occasion did they approve five
ministers. The WJ again decided to meet daily this time,
expanding hours and putting off the recess that should have
started three weeks ago. They optimistically plan to review
five ministers per day. However, on day one (December 21)
they reviewed three (Defense, Education and Justice) and on
day two they tried to review four (Public Health, Interior,
Higher Education, and Finance) but completed only Interior
and Health. If the pace stays the same, and no other
ministers are introduced, the Parliament could finish in
early January. Most MPs tell us that the first tranche of
nominations will likely complete hearings before mid-January.


4. (U) All of the minister-level positions require the
approval of the Parliament, as do the Central Bank, ARCS
(Afghan Red Crescent Society),NDS (National Directorate of
Security),the Attorney General, and supreme court judges
when their term is over. However, these positions will be
announced and approved after the ministers. The following
positions do not require Parliamentary approval: National
Security Advisor, IDLG (Independent Directorate of Local
Governance),Governors, and Palace Advisors.

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Ministries on Auto Pilot?
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5. (C) Acting ministers generally perform a caretaker
function according to established rules of procedure. They
have limited authority to sign treaties, important contracts,
and memorandums of agreement. Palace Political Advisor
Sanjar told us December 22 that no acting minister has the
power to hire or fire employees, reshuffle high level
officials from one ministry to another, spend funds beyond
operational needs, or make important decisions. Therefore,
the USG may see some delays on important decisions in Afghan
ministries in the short term. However, in the case of the 13
of the 23 introduced ministers who are staying on, they may
use some personal discretion to continue making decisions in
order to move established policies forward.

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Parliament's Rare Leverage
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6. (C) Several ministers, including Interior Minister Atmar,
Finance Zakhiwal, and Education Farooq Wardak have started

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significant campaigns among the MPs for their approvals,
using their followers in the Parliament as party whips to
garner votes. Most MPs claim that money is distributed at
the events. Several MPs have told us the payouts average
between $200 - $2000 USD per MP. The higher amounts go to
the heads of committees, to ethnic leaders, or to those
believed to control numerous votes. In theory, they are
expected to distribute the funds among the committees or
followers, but often keep most of the cash for themselves, as
during the recent presidential elections. Most MPs tell us
this is their key 2010 Parliamentary election campaign
fundraising period while others say their salaries are too
low (about $2000 USD/month) and therefore this is a
"much-needed bonus."


7. (C) The cabinet selection votes are secret, and therefore
most MPs tell us they accept all of the "donations," -- yet
claim this money will not control their votes. Fawzai Koofi
(Tajik, Badakhshan) told us the invitations to dinners are
numerous and noted she had received personal calls from
Ismail Khan and Fahim Khan asking for her support of either
themselves of their candidates. Speaker Qanooni told the MPs
on December 20 that although it was "perfectly legal" for the
ministers to lobby the MPs, they should avoid "the most
extravagant dinners in the nicest hotels," as it gave the MPs
a bad reputation. (Note: he implied the dinners were
acceptable if lower profile. End Note.) Qanooni's Advisor
Hekmatullah Foushanji told us that MPs fear asking tough
questions during the appointment process, as they fear if the
candidates become ministers, they will take revenge.

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Rumors and Allegations
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8. (C) The reasons why specific candidates may not obtain WJ
approval is based less on their qualifications and more on
their ethnicity, political affiliation, and whether or not
the individual is taking a seat that MPs wanted for their own
supporters. In any event, MPs are most likely to dress
criticisms with allusions to buzz words like warlordism,
corruption and merit. According to a number of MPs, the
following nominations will receive the most debate and may
risk not obtaining the WJ's approval.

-- Finance Zakhiwal. He is a dual Canadian citizen, and the
Parliament has taken issue with dual citizens. According to
the Afghan constitution, the Parliament "may disqualify
candidates" due to dual citizenship. In his confirmation
hearing December 22, he did not confirm or deny that he was a
Canadian citizen, he only noted he had "turned in his
passport and documents" to the Canadian Embassy. He is also
disliked by non-Pashtuns because he is viewed as a Pashtun
nationalist. He represents a ministry that controls
significant amounts of money, and the MPs understand the
personal benefit of leveraging the finance minister.
However, his lobbying effort appears robust, and many think
he will overcome the initial resistance to his nomination.

-- Mines Shahrani. Shahrani is taking a "cash cow" ministry
and has limited political support. Although an Uzbek, he
refuses to cooperate with the influential Junbesh party (and
Dostum),causing them to lobby against him. Although he has
extensive business and experience running a ministry, he has
no mining-specific background, another possible excuse to
vote against him.

-- Interior Atmar. Many MPs accuse him of holding UK
Citizenship, although he denied this at his confirmation
hearing on December 22. He is mistrusted by the former
mujahadeen, since he supported the Communists. The WJ has a
large former-mujahadeen contingent. MPs question his high
school and undergraduate degrees. Many MPs also accuse him
of corruption. However, he appears to have a robust lobbying
effort already in motion, according to influential MP Shakar
Kargar (Uzbek, Faryab). Koofi said Atmar was cunningly
lobbying the right groups, to include several female MPs, and
therefore would be successful.

-- Energy and Water Ismail Khan. He is a controversial
candidate since he is a former warlord, but as a former
mujahadeen leader, he also has a lot of support from the
numerous WJ mujahadeen and other conservatives. Many argue
he is not qualified for this job, since his only formal
education was at the military academy, and because he spent
most of his life as a commander. The moderates and
technocrats will likely vote against him, although they will
not likely be enough to block his nomination.

-- Culture Raheen. Although he has an impressive resume, he
already received a vote of no confidence by the Parliament

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several years ago after he was caught on television at a
dance performance featuring female dancers. The numerous
conservatives in the Lower House still hold this against him.
Also, many MPs say Karzai's MFA is at the Parliament
lobbying for several candidates, but oddly, he is not one of
them. Many MPs think it is Karzai's plan to allow him to be
rejected by the Parliament, so he can later fill the spot
with another conservative like previous minister Abdul Karim
Khoram. This way, Karzai could blame the Parliament for a
choice unpopular with the international community. Since he
is not a current minister, he may have access to fewer funds
to pay off MPs.

-- Commerce Elaqi. He was accused of corruption in the 1990s
and also accused of having some connection to the narcotics
trade. Many MPs doubt they will approve him this reason, as
well as because many MPs do not like Khalili, one of Elaqi's
patrons. Since he is not a current minister, he may have
access to fewer funds to pay off MPs.

-- Work and Social Affairs Munshi. Former President and
influential MP Professor Rabbani (Tajik, Badakhshan) told us
Munshi was a "killer" when he supported the communist
government, and that he was known as a "criminal" associated
with Dostum. Therefore, it is likely Rabbani's powerful
Jamiat party will vote against him. However, he maintains
his support from Junbesh, one of the most organized political
parties, so it remains to be seen if the more divided Jamiat
could strong arm Junbesh to push Munshi out.

-- Higher Education Obaid. Although respected as the former
dean of the Kabul University Medical School, many female MPs
will not vote for him since he is rumored to have used his
position to force young female students to have a
relationship with him. This ministry is particularly popular
because it works with considerable international donations.

-- Health Fatimie. Some MPs think he has U.S. citizenship,
and think ministry operations are not managed well, and
therefore there is significant corruption at the working
levels. However, most think that he is well-connected and
will overcome any MP resistance to his nomination.
RICCIARDONE