IEC PREDICTS KARZAI WILL SOON CALL FOR MAY 11

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000406

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: IEC PREDICTS KARZAI WILL SOON CALL FOR MAY 11
ELECTION

REF: A. KABUL 000397

B. KABUL 000371


1. (C NF) Daoud Ali Najafi, Chief Technical Officer of the
Independent Election Commission (IEC),on 2/24 said he
expects President Karzai soon will publicly call for a 5/11
date for the 2009 presidential election (REF A.) Najafi
reports Vice-President Khalili has persuaded Karzai that the
President should "divide the risk" on the question of the
government's constitutional authority from 5/22, the end of
the presidential term, to 8/20, the IEC's scheduled election
date. By agreeing to stand for election prior to 5/22,
Karzai believes he reclaims the constitutional high ground
from the opposition. Najafi says the President is gambling
that when he calls for a May election, the international
community will respond by pressuring the opposition to agree
to a Karzai-led interim government to safeguard its
preference for an 8/20 date.


2. (C NF) Both Najafi and Zekria Barakzai, Najafi's deputy,
confirmed that the IEC still held firm that 8/20 was the
earliest practical date on which to hold elections. IEC
Chairman Ludin has also stood firm on this point despite
criticism and pressure from Karzai, the parliament, and other
senior political figures. Barakzai asked whether the
international community would agree to fund a May election.
This, he said, is the key point of leverage. The IEC does
not wish to become embroiled in this political game about the
leadership of an interim government and is considering now
what its public response to a Karzai announcement should be.
The IEC may note that donor concerns would make funding a
spring election impossible. Barakzai is worried that the
brinkmanship between Karzai and the opposition over an
interim arrangement will mostly end up harming the IEC's
image of impartiality, eroding public confidence in the
elections as free and fair.


3. (C NF) The two election officials agree that the
opposition, not Karzai, loses politically from an earlier
election. Najafi noted some sources say Karzai has promised
the first vice-presidency to Marshall Fahim, and this deal is
the root of the rift between Vice-President Massoud and
Karzai (REF B.) As further evidence that politics, and not
the constitution, is at stake, Chief Justice Azimi reportedly
this week told legislative leaders that, since they now say
they support the IEC's announced August date, the parliament
should withdraw its letter to the Court calling for censure
of the IEC for an unconstitutional act. Lower House Speaker
Qanooni and other legislators declined this challenge.


4. (SBU) Polcouns affirmed the United States's continued
solid stand on the 8/20 election date, assured Najafi and
Barakzai of our full confidence in the performance of the
IEC, and informed them of efforts we are making with
political leaders and the international community to support
a political solution to the executive authority issue. Najfi
and Barakzai welcomed the information.
DELL