JUNBESH SEEKS COMPROMISE ON PRESIDENTIAL CONTINUITY

UNCLAS KABUL 000404

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AF
SUBJECT: JUNBESH SEEKS COMPROMISE ON PRESIDENTIAL CONTINUITY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Junbesh-e-Milli leaders say the
majority-Uzbek party is willing to play a constructive role
in negotiations with President Karzai and other political
leaders over post-5/22 executive authority. Most Junbesh
leaders insist Karzai must step aside after the
constitutional expiration of his term, but are encouraging
the United Front and other opposition groups to be more open
to compromise with the president on the details of a
caretaker government. Junbesh fully supports the 8/20
election date and promises to discourage supporters from
organizing protests if Karzai remains in office though the
inauguration.

Looking to Play a Constructive Role
--------------


2. (SBU) Junbesh executive committee member and Jowzjan MP
Faizullah Zaki told PolOff on 2/24 that the party decided
this month to support and prepare for the 8/20 election date.
The party opposes moving the election to an earlier date to
comply with the Constitution. "It's too late to go back
now," Zaki said. Zaki has pushed the party to focus on the
issue of post-5/22 executive authority, asking colleagues to
put off a decision on its presidential endorsement until
"this more important issue" is solved. Like other
opposition groups, most Junbesh leaders believe Karzai should
either step aside in favor of a caretaker government after
5/22 or not stand for re-election if he decides to stay in
office through the conclusion of the election. The suspicion
that Karzai will use government agencies to aid his campaign
underlies this position.


3. (SBU) Junbesh Chairman Sayed Noorullah earlier told
PolOff the government must focus on improving the security
situation to hold an election, but needed a legal rationale
if it wanted to remain in power after 5/22. Unlike other
Junbesh leaders, Noorullah has held out the option of
supporting Karzai, though he understands the bulk of his
party prefers the president leave office. Noorullah would
also support Upper House Speaker Mojaddedi serving as
caretaker president. Despite their willingness to find a
compromise solution, both Noorullah and Zaki have expressed
frustration that Karzai has ignored Junbesh after party
founder Gen. Dostum departed for Turkey in December.

Downplaying Crisis
--------------


4. (SBU) Zaki is exploring incentives to draw Karzai into
negotiations with the opposition and downplay the potential
for a crisis that could weaken the government at a time of
increased Taliban attacks. Zaki suggests an argument whereby
Karzai steps down before 5/22, a non-partisan figure assumes
the presidency, and the current Cabinet remains in office.
Zaki and Noorullah have agreed to push their allies in other
political parties to be open to compromise, Zaki targeting
the United Front and Noorullah appealing to his contacts in
Hazara leader Mohaqqeq's Hezb-e-Wahdat faction.


5. (SBU) PolOff outlined the U.S. position: resolution of
the executive authority issue required Afghan political
leaders (including Karzai and key opposition leaders) to work
together to find an agreed-to political solution. The U.S.
would advocate no specific outcome, but would insist the
eventual solution preserve the 8/20 election, maintain a
strong government during the peak fighting season, and
support the authority and goals of the Constitution. Those
who resisted a sensible solution to the problem could face
repercussions from voters in the election or in their future
relations with the United States. Zaki appreciated the U.S.
focus on providing security and its neutrality in political
matters.


6. (SBU) Zaki said Junbesh will promote a rational
dialogue in all of its discussions with other parties,
including Karzai. Junbesh has no interest in organizing
protests to oppose the government if Karzai remains in office
after 5/22. "The Taliban will take advantage (of protests),"
Zaki said. "We're not going to be responsible for opening up
a target for their attacks."
DELL