ASHRAF GHANI EXPLORES SOLUTIONS TO PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS KABUL 000391 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV AF SUBJECT: ASHRAF GHANI EXPLORES SOLUTIONS TO PRESIDENTIAL AUTHORITY QUESTION ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai recommended using the Constitution and other government institutions to resolve the question of President Karzai's authority after the May 22 expiration of his term. Ghani, who expects to declare his own candidacy for the presidency within a few weeks, has been studying the Afghan Constitution and considering similar historical situations in other countries to find an acceptable solution. Like many of Karzai's potential rivals, Ghani contended that Karzai would manipulate government resources to aid his presidential campaign. Because of those suspicions, Ghani argued that Karzai should step down in favor of a caretaker government after May 22 if he intended to run for re-election. Constitutional Rationale -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Ghani told PolCouns that the Supreme Court and Parliament, the two branches of government whose authority would continue through the period in question, should play a constructive role in resolving the dispute over post-May 22 presidential continuity. He pointed out the Court's authority under Article 130 to "rule in a way that attains justice in the best manner" in situations where there is no guidance in the Constitution or law. He suggested the Court, in conjunction with Parliament, had authority to establish guidelines for a caretaker government. ¶3. (SBU) Under Ghani's plan, Karzai would step down in favor of a caretaker government, perhaps modeled on Pakistan's transitional authority in 1993, when Moeen Qureshi, a former World Bank official, served as caretaker prime minister. Ghani proposed that this interim government should then replace more than 2,000 appointees at the national, provincial, and district level, again because they could bring undue influence on the election process. Despite PolOffs' questions over whether such a realignment of government responsibilities could be handled in just a few months, Ghani remained confident that hundreds of technocrats could move into positions of authority without damaging the government's performance or jeopardizing ongoing security campaigns. Karzai's Role Unclear -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Ghani acknowledged that his plan included no role for Karzai in devising the transition authority mechanism. He agreed it would be difficult to imagine Karzai abdicating all involvement in such a process. At that point, PolCouns reiterated the U.S. position that resolution of the presidential continuity issue required Afghan political leaders (including Karzai) to work together to find an agreed-to political solution. The United States would advocate no specific outcome, but insists the eventual solution preserve the 8/20 election, maintain a strong government during the peak fighting season, and support the authority and goals of the Constitution. ¶5. (SBU) Ghani agreed that any solution would require Karzai's concurrence. He pledged to continue his negotiations with other political leaders while keeping security in mind. He promised to separate the August 20 election date, which he supported, from the question of presidential continuity. He called First Vice President Massoud's public criticisms of the government's legitimacy "counterproductive" given the imperative of establishing an environment in which political leaders could work together to reach a consensus. He would discourage opposition leaders from organizing public protests of the government, as such protests would attract insurgents looking to create chaos. Despite the failure of opposition groups to unite around a single leader or sway Karzai to consider giving up his incumbency, Ghani felt Afghan leaders could find an acceptable consensus by the third week of March. DELL