ASHRAF GHANI EXPLORES SOLUTIONS TO PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS KABUL 000391

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AF
SUBJECT: ASHRAF GHANI EXPLORES SOLUTIONS TO PRESIDENTIAL
AUTHORITY QUESTION


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani
Ahmadzai recommended using the Constitution and other
government institutions to resolve the question of President
Karzai's authority after the May 22 expiration of his term.
Ghani, who expects to declare his own candidacy for the
presidency within a few weeks, has been studying the Afghan
Constitution and considering similar historical situations in
other countries to find an acceptable solution. Like many of
Karzai's potential rivals, Ghani contended that Karzai would
manipulate government resources to aid his presidential
campaign. Because of those suspicions, Ghani argued that
Karzai should step down in favor of a caretaker government
after May 22 if he intended to run for re-election.

Constitutional Rationale
--------------


2. (SBU) Ghani told PolCouns that the Supreme Court and
Parliament, the two branches of government whose authority
would continue through the period in question, should play a
constructive role in resolving the dispute over post-May 22
presidential continuity. He pointed out the Court's
authority under Article 130 to "rule in a way that attains
justice in the best manner" in situations where there is no
guidance in the Constitution or law. He suggested the Court,
in conjunction with Parliament, had authority to establish
guidelines for a caretaker government.


3. (SBU) Under Ghani's plan, Karzai would step down in favor
of a caretaker government, perhaps modeled on Pakistan's
transitional authority in 1993, when Moeen Qureshi, a former
World Bank official, served as caretaker prime minister.
Ghani proposed that this interim government should then
replace more than 2,000 appointees at the national,
provincial, and district level, again because they could
bring undue influence on the election process. Despite
PolOffs' questions over whether such a realignment of
government responsibilities could be handled in just a few
months, Ghani remained confident that hundreds of technocrats
could move into positions of authority without damaging the
government's performance or jeopardizing ongoing security
campaigns.

Karzai's Role Unclear
--------------


4. (SBU) Ghani acknowledged that his plan included no role
for Karzai in devising the transition authority mechanism.
He agreed it would be difficult to imagine Karzai abdicating
all involvement in such a process. At that point, PolCouns
reiterated the U.S. position that resolution of the
presidential continuity issue required Afghan political
leaders (including Karzai) to work together to find an
agreed-to political solution. The United States would
advocate no specific outcome, but insists the eventual
solution preserve the 8/20 election, maintain a strong
government during the peak fighting season, and support the
authority and goals of the Constitution.


5. (SBU) Ghani agreed that any solution would require
Karzai's concurrence. He pledged to continue his
negotiations with other political leaders while keeping
security in mind. He promised to separate the August 20
election date, which he supported, from the question of
presidential continuity. He called First Vice President
Massoud's public criticisms of the government's legitimacy
"counterproductive" given the imperative of establishing an
environment in which political leaders could work together to
reach a consensus. He would discourage opposition leaders
from organizing public protests of the government, as such
protests would attract insurgents looking to create chaos.
Despite the failure of opposition groups to unite around a
single leader or sway Karzai to consider giving up his
incumbency, Ghani felt Afghan leaders could find an
acceptable consensus by the third week of March.
DELL