UNAMA: POSSIBLY POSTPONING ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003878

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: UNAMA: POSSIBLY POSTPONING ELECTIONS

Classified By: CDDEA Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Summary: Addressing ambassadors gathered at UNAMA on
December 2, SRSG Kai Eide reported that he had held a "very
productive" meeting with President Karzai on November 30, and
that Karzai was clearly open to postponing district
elections, but would need additional persuasion to postpone
parliamentary elections, for which Karzai mentioned a May 20
date. Most ambassadors seemed to accept the wisdom of
postponing both elections, as Eide favored, but several
dissented (Turkey and EC). Eide urged ambassadors to raise
privately with their contacts the need to postpone, and
several agreed to do so. The British Deputy Head of Mission
(DHM) also provided an update on the agenda for the January
28 London conference. Coordinating Director for Development
and Economic Affairs (CDDEA),Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne
provided additional background on President Obama's December
1 speech and on the President's recent conversation with
Karzai on the way forward in Afghanistan. End Summary.

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Parliamentary and District Elections
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2. (C) SRSG Eide shared with assembled ambassadors on
December 2 that President Karzai had looked surprised when
Eide conveyed to him in their November 30 meeting that, if
the Parliamentary and District elections were to take place
as scheduled in the spring of 2010, the Independent Elections
Commission (IEC) would have to make the announcement by the
end of December or early January. Karzai said he had
identified May 20 for parliamentary elections and conceded
that district elections should be postponed. But Karzai said
parliamentary elections should proceed and he favors 6900
polling stations. Eide said he explained the need for major
reforms of the Election Commission and other challenges, and
that Karzai did not agree but gave Eide a sense that he might
consider a postponement of parliamentary elections.


3. (C) Eide stated that he intended to seriously push the
issue with Karzai and hopefully secure his agreement to
postpone the elections. However, Eide acknowledged that the
IEC commissioners, whose mandate extends another year, were
opposed to postponing the election. A confrontation is
imminent, Eide warned, because UNDP-Elect will not work under
the same conditions as it did in 2009, and the international
community will not fund an election if they believe the
process is still flawed.


4. (C) Ambassador Wayne seconded Eide's position on
postponing the parliamentary elections, arguing that the
international community should make plain to Afghan contacts
the adverse impact another fraudulent election would have on
international involvement in Afghanistan. Further, we should
also obtain an accurate Afghan perspective on whether Afghans
believe it would be more destructive to hold a fraudulent
election than none at all. The British DHM argued that
holding elections in 2010 would distract from a critical time
in our military operation here, just as it had in 2009, and
that ISAF could not afford to be sidetracked by an election
and the security requirements they would entail. He said
President Obama's eighteen month time frame made it all the
more important to stay focused on progress on security,
governance, and development. Can we really afford five
months of such a distraction and possible controversies over
fraud, he asked. Ambassador Wayne said that "quiet
conversations" with key Afghan contacts should be our
strategy to winning support for a postponement, and Eide
encouraged the ambassadors to raise the issue with key Afghan
ministers and other influential contacts.


5. (C) Both the Turkish ambassador and the European
Commission's representative dissented, however, asserting
that "fraud is not unavoidable" and that the election should
be held in order to give the Afghans the opportunity to fix
their system and to begin making the necessary improvements
to avoid fraud. The EC representative asserted that the
elections should not be postponed just because the
international community does not want to hold them. His
views were also shared by the EUSR representative, who
referenced a recent AREU report on Afghan views of the 2009
election, which she said showed considerable enthusiasm for
the parliamentary elections on the part of the Afghan people.
The German ambassador said that Abdullah Abdullah was very
critical of the election process and was doubtful of IEC
reform, but that Abdullah had expressed no clear opinion on
the subject of postponement at a recent meeting.

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President Obama's Speech
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6. (C) Amplifying the message that President Obama made in
his December 1 speech, Ambassador Wayne stressed the need for
increased international cooperation from our ISAF partners on
military and, from all our partners, on civilian efforts in
Afghanistan. He particularly highlighted how the new
strategy would amplify America's civilian efforts, with a
particular focus on economic growth, improving governance,
and strengthening the central government's ability to deliver
services on the district and local levels. These topics, as
well as corruption and regional issues, were raised in
President Obama's November 30 video conference with Karzai.
President Obama had stressed to Karzai, as well as in his
speech, that the U.S. is not making an open-ended commitment
to Afghanistan, but will continue to evaluate our
involvement, monitoring progress toward our shared
objectives.


7. (C) Eide reported that the new U.S. focus on institution
building and economic development appears to be gaining
traction with President Karzai, who raised the issue with him
in their recent meeting. Eide said that Karzai had never
discussed institution building or sectors such as energy and
mining with him before, nor had he previously acknowledged
the need for improvements in the civil service and
functioning of government ministries. Noting the new focus
on strengthening the ministries, the Norwegian ambassador
asked how donor funds would be distributed, and whether the
central government would receive the funds or if they would
be distributed locally. The Pakistani Deputy Chief of
Mission raised the need to enhance the Afghan government's
revenue collecting abilities. Wayne described our new
strategy, which will work at the national and subnational
level. For example, we will certify the ability of ministries
to account for funding if we fund them directly, and our
pilot program with the Independent Directorate of Local
Governance to create funding mechanisms to directly funnel
money to sub-national programs in six pilot districts.
Improving capacity of local and provincial governments, Wayne
said, will be critical in order to ensure funding is
appropriately used.

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London Conference
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8. (C) The British DHM offered a brief update on the January
27 London conference, saying that invitations would go out
shortly to all ISAF countries, regional powers, and other
influential organizations. The focus remains on security,
Transfer of Lead Security Responsibility (TLSR),and
reintegration. A conference sequencing memo has been
circulated to all relevant parties. The UK favors a JCMB
meeting in Kabul in January, the London Conference, and
finally a Kabul conference in late March or early April.
Speaking privately to Ambassador Wayne, The British DHM noted
that a draft concluding document for release at the London
conference is already being drafted in London. Ambassador
Wayne argued that Afghan input on this paper was essential.
The British DHM said they were trying to connect with Foreign
Minister Spanta and other ministers to do just that on TLSR,
and the UK military representative at the meeting flagged to
Ambassador Wayne the danger of sending a wrong message at
London and the importance of not giving partners an easy
excuse to withdraw troops before the time is right.


9. (C) Eide noted privately to Ambassador Wayne that he will
probably be going to New York to address the UN Security
Council on January 6, and could travel to Washington for
meetings in conjunction with that trip.
MUSSOMELI