JUNBESH OFFICIAL EXPOUNDS ON PARTY REFORM, PRESIDENTIAL

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SUBJECT: JUNBESH OFFICIAL EXPOUNDS ON PARTY REFORM, PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION OUTLOOK

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Junbesh party central committee head Sayed Noorullah
discussed his recent public spat with General Dostum, internal party
reform efforts, and the party's outlook for the upcoming
presidential elections with State PRT officer. Anti-reform elements
within Junbesh, especially former military commanders, will slowly
come around to seeing the advantages of party reforms, Noorullah
predicted. He envisaged that the three main contenders for the
presidency will be President Karzai, former Interior Minister Ali
Jalali, and former U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilizad - all Pashtuns.
Junbesh's negotiations with the ethnic Hazara Wahdat party have hit
a snag over which of their parties should nab the second
vice-presidency should they reach a deal with one or more of the
leading candidates. Noorullah mentioned that he has rebuffed offers
of support for Junbesh from Iranian government sources. He believes
Karzai should resign upon the expiration of his term in May but does
not want a state of emergency declared in the country as a result.
Noorullah also described the behind-the-scenes efforts by Labor and
Social Affairs Minister Noor Qarqin to protect his own political
future by manipulating the ethnic Turkmen vote.

RELATIONS WITH DOSTUM STILL STRAINED
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2. (SBU) A confident, relaxed Sayed Noorullah acknowledged to State
PRT officer on February 11 that his dust-up with Dostum was the
result of tensions that had been mounting between the two men after
the party congress last spring. According to Noorullah, Dostum is
"not well" psychologically, and believes Noorullah is the architect
of the plan to send Dostum to Turkey for alcoholism treatment.
Asked whether he will have to tread more carefully in pushing his
reform agenda, Noorullah observed that the Junbesh steering
committee has come to realize that Junbesh cannot revolve forever
around Dostum. The steering committee will consult with Dostum, but
not allow him alone to shape the party's destiny. Noorullah said
the Junbesh steering committee has come to understand how
debilitating alcoholism has been to Dostum's judgment. "Dostum's
thinking is static. We need dynamic changes within the party," he
said. Noorullah did not speculate on when Dostum might return to
Afghanistan, but said he would come back "tomorrow" if the doctors
let him, and if that were to happen, it would bring trouble.

NOORULLAH TRYING TO WIN OVER ANTAGONISTS WITHIN PARTY
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3. (SBU) Dostum has not been the only obstacle to reform; Junbesh's
ex-commanders, particularly MPs from Faryab province like Fatiullah
Khan and Ahmed Khan "Sarhowz," also have shown resistance to making
the party more democratic. "Junbesh is a party born of war, and
many of the commanders still have that mentality," Noorullah
explained. He added that they feel "if Dostum's role is diminished,
so will theirs be." Calling the group of anti-reform elements in
Junbesh who are opposed to his leadership "fanatics," Noorullah said
that even some of its members, which he claims consists of 10-15
young "hotheads" from Faryab, have softened their stance toward him
lately. As for the Junbesh MPs who refuse to buy in to the party's
reform agenda, Junbesh will not support their parliamentary
reelection bids next year. Noorullah said he has been spending a
lot of time meeting influential party members individually to
explain the importance of the reform plans. "One way or another,
they'll change eventually," he believes.

JUNBESH'S OUTLOOK FOR THE ELECTIONS
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4. (SBU) Junbesh is busy mobilizing its supporters but has not yet
publicly settled on a candidate. Noorullah described a few
scenarios for his party in the upcoming presidential election. In
his opinion, the best course of action for Junbesh is to negotiate
favorable terms independently with one or more candidates. If that
proves too difficult, Junbesh will try to conclude alliances with
other parties and leverage its collective strength to cut deals with
one or more candidates. The third option for Junbesh is to run its
own candidate, but Noorullah concedes that is unlikely to happen.
Noorullah predicted the party will settle on a candidate within a
month's time.

SEEKING THE SECOND-VICE-PRESIDENCY
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5. (SBU) Junbesh's main condition for lending its support to a
candidate is receiving the second vice-presidency should that person
win. (Note: Noorullah, clearly expecting the next president to be a
Pashtun, believes the first vice-presidency will be given to an
ethnic Tajik.) That remains the sticking point in Junbesh's talks
with the ethnic Hazara Wahdat party, which is also eyeing the second

vice-presidency as a pre-condition for its support. Discussions
with other parties, like the Afghan Millat party (Pashtun majority)
are taking place at a low level. Junbesh membership in the United
National Front (UF) is a dead issue, as far as Noorullah is
concerned. Before his recent trip to Turkey to meet Dostum,
Noorullah said he met with UF chairman Rabbani and told him not to
count Junbesh as a UF member anymore, even though Junbesh may
continue to attend UF meetings. Noorullah suggested that Junbesh
may even hold discussions with influential Jamiat party figure
Governor Atta of Balkh province, noting what he called Atta's
dissatisfaction with Rabbani's UF. (Note: Atta is his own man and
has previously remarked to State PRT officer that he does not feel
bound by decisions of the UF.)

SIZING UP POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS
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6. (SBU) Looking at the potential field of presidential candidates,
Noorullah expects the strongest contenders to be Pashtun. He
believes that Karzai, despite his loss of standing with the
international community, could still be a formidable contender,
especially if he remains as president until the August elections.
District and provincial government appointees, hoping to keep their
jobs, may feel compelled to conduct campaign outreach on Karzai's
behalf. Noorullah is clearly keen about the prospects of former
U.S. Ambassador Khalilizad should he enter the race - Noorullah
claims Khalilizad already has people laying the groundwork for his
campaign. But he is less keen about the chances of former Interior
Minister Ali Jalali, unless Khalilizad decides to back him.
Noorullah dismissed the prospects of First Vice-President Ahmad Zia
Massoud, who he claimed will be UF's candidate, and scoffed at the
UF's "Obama-like vision" in thinking that an ethnic Tajik could be
elected president in majority Pashtun Afghanistan.

REBUFFING IRAN'S OFFER OF SUPPORT
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7. (SBU) Noorullah mentioned that during the internal party turmoil
last December and January, Iranian government sources contacted him
about lending their support to Junbesh. Noorullah said he refused
to entertain the offer and sent a clear signal to them that Junbesh
does not want Iranian support.

JUNBESH: KARZAI SHOULD STEP DOWN WHEN TERM ENDS IN MAY
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8. (SBU) Noorullah noted that Junbesh would air a statement on
party-owned Aina TV, to inform supporters about the party's election
preparations and to call on the government to take appropriate
measures to fill the "legal vacuum" created if President Karzai
refuses to step down when his term ends in May. In Noorullah's
view, Karzai should resign and Upper House Speaker Mojadeddi should
be named interim leader. But the August elections should not be
preceded by a state of emergency - a measure proposed by some MPs.
Noorullah warned that conducting a campaign against such a backdrop
would be a setback for the country and could result in undemocratic
elections.

MINISTER QARQIN'S TURKMEN "GAME"
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9. (SBU) Asked what he made of reports circulating among ethnic
Turkmen communities that Engineer Rosi Guildi Khojayhen, an MP from
Shortepa district in Balkh province, would be their candidate for
president, Noorullah grinned and said that was all a "game" being
rigged by Labor and Social Affairs Minister Noor Qarqin - an ethnic
Turkmen - to ensure Qarqin's political future. Many Turkmens say
they feel betrayed by Qarqin because he has not brought any
development to their communities, most of which are situated along
the Amu Darya river. (Note: The head of the education department in
the ethnic Turkmen district of Kaldar in Balkh province told State
PRT officer a few days earlier that even he - an ethnic Turkmen
whose father is Qarqin's cousin - will support Khojayhen.)


10. (SBU) As Noorullah explained it, Qarqin, realizing he has lost
support, is using Khojayhen as a tool by propping him up as the face
of the Turkmen bloc. The plan is the old bait-and-switch: Khojayhen
runs for president, bows out of the race, cuts a deal with a leading
candidate, encourages Turkmen voters to support that candidate, and
later, along with Qarqin, reaps the political spoils. The Council
of Turkmens in Kabul has reportedly blessed Khojayhen's presidential
bid, and according to Noorullah, Khojayhen and Qarqin have already
discussed this plan with Karzai. (Note: Qarqin is believed to have
carried about half the Turkmen vote for Karzai in the last
election.) Yet Qarqin's opportunism will push him to correct course
if needed and to throw his weight behind whichever candidate appears
to be the front runner, opined Noorullah, who added that "there will


be at least one ethnic Turkmen minister in the cabinet no matter who
becomes president and Qarqin wants to be that minister." Noorullah
believes Khojayhen, an ex-Junbesh commander, lacks sufficient
capacity to hold a ministerial portfolio much less serve as
president. Despite these political machinations, Noorullah remains
confident Junbesh will attract the majority of the Turkmen vote, and
points to well-attended party shuras in Turkmen communities in
Badghis and Faryab provinces as an indication of their support. By
its own estimates, Junbesh claims it captured half the Turkmen vote
in the last presidential election, and it believes itcan pick up
another quarter of the vote next ime.

COMMENT
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11. (SBU) Noorullah did not drop any clues as to whom Junbesh would
support for president. But his criticism of Karzai was much sharper
during this exchange than it was two months ago, making it seem
unlikely that Junbesh will cut a deal to support Karzai. Nor did
Noorullah sound optimistic that a deal would be struck with the
Wahdat party. Noorullah's deputy in Faryab province, when asked by
State PRT officer in early February if he and other Junbesh party
officials couldrally supporters to vote for Karzai if a deal wee
to be struck with the president, admitted tat they could not and
said such a move would undermine their credibility.


12. (SBU) Noorullah realizes he will have to put on a charm
offensive to build trust among Dostum's stalwart supporters given
the party's recent internal spat. As a Turkish diplomat remarked to
State PRT officer, charisma is one quality the dour Noorullah - a
former intelligence operative - lacks. One card that is his to play
for the foreseeable future is Turkey's support for Junbesh party
reforms. For Dostum, coming to terms with the realization that his
is not the only voice shaping the party's future may be even more
bitter a pill to swallow than having to follow a 12-step program.
It is fair to say that Noorullah achieved a minor victory by being
reinstated as the party's central committee chairman despite
Dostum's having stripped him of that title. Officially, Dostum
remains the party's leader, one who is still held in very high
esteem by many. As the Junbesh party chairman in Faryab province
remarked, insulting Dostum in Faryab is an offense more serious thaninsulting a
religious leader. An uneasy truce btween their
respective camps prevails, but byNoorullah's account, the Junbesh
steering committee is behind him more now than it was two months ago
when the rift emerged.

DELL