NURISTAN,S NEW PROVINCIAL COUNCIL: MURKY POLITICS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003785

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM, INR/B
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: NURISTAN,S NEW PROVINCIAL COUNCIL: MURKY POLITICS,
HARD WORK AHEAD

Classified By: Interagency Provincial Affairs Deputy Director Hoyt Yee
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The nine Provincial Council members who may
be elected in Nuristan Province when results are certified by
the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) are a clean sweep:
neither of the two competing incumbents would return to
office. Islamic scholars who support Salafist Governor
Jamaluddin Badr were the top vote-getters in a poll badly
tainted by fraud. This new bloc on the provincial council
may be part of a larger bid by Jamaluddin to stack supporters
in government jobs. For the incoming council, worsening
security and changing U.S. strategies are pressing problems,
while a weak electoral mandate, ambiguous institutional role,
lack of funding, and the gap between traditional and formal
governance are systemic challenges. The new council and the
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) are grappling now with
terms of partnership to address these issues. End Summary.

Part of Jamaluddin,s Team?
--------------


2. (C) In the run-up to the August 20 election, a smattering
of Nuristanis claimed that Governor Jamaluddin was scheming
to manipulate the vote to pack the Provincial Council with
supporters of his Salafist Ummiat-e-Muslimeen movement.
Indeed, new members Hafiz Abdul Qyoom (with 14.1 percent of
the vote),Abdul Latif (14.2 percent),and Abdul Razaq Madani
(6.7 percent) are known political allies of Jamaluddin.
Each, like Jamaluddin, is an Islamic scholar. Qyoom heads
Nuristan,s ulema (Islamic scholar) council; Abdul Latif
studied sharia (Islamic) law in Jalalabad; Abdul Razaq is a
Jamaluddin classmate from Medina Islamic University in Saudi
Arabia. Einaytullah Mazhabiyar (11.2 percent) is known as
non-partisan, but shares with the governor a background in
conservative Islam, having served as a sharia law judge after
attending a conservative religious school in Pakistan. It is
unlikely that any of the listed vote totals for these
supporters are accurate though, as numerous credible reports
indicate that fraud in Nuristan,s Provincial Council
election was among the worst in the nation.


3. (C) This group of Jamaluddin supporters is likely to face
little organized opposition. Jamiat-e-Islami is the other
political movement that gained seats on the provincial
council, with representatives Abdul Gafur (11.2 percent),a
teacher, and Amir Hamza (6.5 percent),a former mujahideen
fighter lacking formal education. The remaining three
members are political novices who owe their seats to the
vagaries of the electoral system. Shahla, an unknown high
school graduate aged 24, pulled only 814 votes, or 1.3
percent. Roweeda won one of two seats reserved for women
with 343 votes (0.6 percent),and has only a primary
education; the other female representative, Khatera Aimar,
won 323 votes (0.5 percent) and has a middle-school diploma.



4. (C) Other signs suggest the governor's new bloc on the
provincial council is part of a larger bid to fill as many
government jobs as possible with personal supporters. A
district police chief in western Nuristan last month told us
that Jamaluddin recently added 200 of his own men to the
police rolls, and is working to push other officers off in
order to meet the salary ceiling. The district governor of
Dow Ab said he believed Jamaluddin hoped to replace him with
an ally who would not criticize the governor's reported
corrupt practices, and to fill the vacant Nurgram district
governor position with a relative. Already in Nurgram the
governor exceeded his authority and fired the Ministry of
Education's district representative to make room for a
supporter, according to United Nations Assistance Mission in
Afghanistan (UNAMA) political officers.

A Full Plate of Problems
--------------


5. (C) Six members of the probable 2009 provincial council in
October sought out the civilian and military leadership of
the PRT to discuss their hopes for development and concerns
about security and the changing Coalition Forces posture in
the province. The summer fighting in Barg-e-Matal and
Kamdesh district, along with the planned closure of U.S.
bases along Nuristan,s southern border, alarmed the new
Council members. Abdul Latif reported that &Taliban8
kidnapped him and held him overnight as he traveled from his
home in Wama district to Nurgram to meet the PRT. &If you
(Coalition Forces and the USG) turn your back on Nuristan,
the enemy will only grow in strength,8 Abdul Latif argued.

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After a wide-ranging debate, the Provincial Council members
agreed to meet with the PRT again to identify communities
that are cooperating with the government and Coalition
Forces, and thus ready for development projects.


6. (C) Comment: Like many other Provincial Councils,
Nuristan,s new body has a weak electoral mandate, a
loosely-defined role in representing popular concerns, and no
budget for staff or operations. The new members have yet to
meet formally with the governor or with provincial directors
of key ministries, including Education and Agriculture. This
larger group, which comprises the now-moribund Provincial
Development Council (PDC),may meet later this month in
Nurgram; travel along the gravel road to the capital Parun
will soon be closed off by snow. This first PDC meeting is
likely to be a useful gauge of whether the governor's
politics of patronage and probable graft create more or less
effective Afghan government partners in development for the
PRT.
Mussomeli