SETTING THE AGENDA FOR THE LONDON CONFERENCE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003772 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL UN AF SUBJECT: SETTING THE AGENDA FOR THE LONDON CONFERENCE ON AFGHANISTAN REF: KABUL 3742 Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: With the date for the next Afghanistan conference set for January 28 in London, ambassadors gathered at UNAMA on November 23 discussed potential agenda items for the London meeting and a number of other Afghan-related conferences anticipated over the next few months. In addition to London, they discussed a reinforced JCMB meeting in mid-January and a larger ministerial conference in Kabul in March or April to present a well-developed set of commitments, benchmarks and action plans on key development and governance issues. There seemed to be widespread agreement that there should be Afghan leadership of all of the conferences and that the discussion in London should go beyond security to include political issues. SRSG Kai Eide also questioned whether Afghanistan would be ready to hold its 2010 parliamentary and district council elections on time, a view shared by a number of the ambassadors in attendance. Eide promised to circulate a paper on elections options. End Summary. ¶2. (C) At the start of the UNAMA-sponsored meeting, a number of Ambassadors expressed strong displeasure that the January 28 conference had been agreed without broader consultations, that it would not be held in Kabul, and that there was insufficient time to prepare well a conference of this scope by late January. The British DCM, with support from French Ambassador, explained the origins of agreement on January 28 and confirmed that President Karzai had agreed. They and the German Ambassador also explained that the London conference could also serve to address the anxiety of domestic audiences over continued troop presence in Afghanistan. The conference, they noted, presents an opportunity to set expectations among domestic audiences about the nature of international involvement in Afghanistan under the new Karzai administration and to boost support among those audiences. ¶3. (C) The discussion then turned to the type of conferences needed and appropriate agendas for addressing key issues and reforms. SRSG Kai Eide emphasized that Afghans should chair the London conference, and conference organizers should heed the Afghans' desire that the conference have a broad agenda that is not limited to security and the transfer of lead responsibilities from ISAF to the Afghans, as the UK had initially suggested. Other ambassadors seconded this idea, citing the need for a robust political dialogue in London. The Canadian Ambassador stressed the need for realistic expectations about what could be done by London and the need to work with the new Afghan cabinet to get concrete deliverables at a conference later in the spring. U.S. Mission Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Wayne suggested that the group consider a series of reinforcing meetings: a meeting of the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) at which Finance Minister Zakhilwal could present initial ideas on the government?s reform agenda and setting out a work plan to prepare a Kabul conference in March and April with partner countries (perhaps reinforced by delegates from capitals, the UK suggested); London could talk about security and other important broad issues including a mandate to prepare well a more substantive set of commitments and work plans for the Afghans and partners to agree at the March/April conference. The French Ambassador seconded that concept, adding re-integration as a possible topic for London. ¶4. (C) Kai Eide accepted the notion of three conferences and argued that London would be a good place to address what comes next on corruption and governance. Ambassador Wayne added that London might be an opportunity for President Karzai to present a further elaboration of his inauguration speech on fighting corruption and strengthening governance, as well as presenting a somewhat more specific vision of this key priorities for the year ahead. Such a speech and subsequent discussion could help foment solid preparation for more detailed work by the new cabinet and international partners to define action plans or sets of benchmarks to be blessed at the subsequent Kabul conference. Eide and others said we should open a dialogue with the Afghans to agree on the conferences and agendas, and that the Afghans should have the lead in all of the conferences: there was general agreement on these points. ¶5. (C) Eide noted that certain ministers, led by Minister of Finance Zakhilwal, have already started drafting their agendas and are moving them through the required clearance process. Wayne noted that the concept of reorganizing the government into KABUL 00003772 002 OF 002 up to five clusters with lead ministers was still apparently moving ahead and that Zakhilwal had identified a number of areas of potential priority reform and intended to come up with a shorter, focused list for early action. (Note: In a separate meeting with Ambassador Wayne and USAID representatives on November 22, Minister Zakhilwal said he is creating a reform agenda for the year ahead. He has identified about twenty potential focus areas based on three criteria: delivering services to the public; corruption; and potential for increasing government revenue. He said he hopes to cut this list down to ten or fewer and then present the list to the JCMB for support. President Karzai, he said, has given preliminary approval for a plan to "cluster" ministries, with Zakhilwal leading the restructuring effort. Zakhilwal noted the need for advisors in taking this process forward and for capacity building support in the six or seven ministries which handle 80 percent of development work and funding. He said he would ask that donor countries focus on capacity building in those ministries. End Note.) ¶6. (C) Before closing the session, Eide briefly raised the issue of next year's parliamentary and district council elections. He questioned whether Afghanistan would be ready to hold elections on time, given the massive problems uncovered in the August 2009 presidential election. He asserted that these concerns must be addressed before a new election can be called. A wide range of participants argued that there are very valid reasons to delay parliamentary and district elections. The Canadian and others also raised the possibility of reforming the constitution to allow for needed electoral law changes, while others voiced concern about undermining the credibility of the constitution in the Afghan people's eyes. Eide said UNAMA would shortly circulate a discussion paper on elections. He also flagged that he hoped to discuss in the future "how we organize ourselves," specifically mentioning the respective roles of any new civilian lead for the ISAF coalition, the UN, and the EU (given the new EU treaty). Mussomeli