EARLY KARZAI INAUGURAL FEEDBACK: TRIBAL AND WOMEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003744 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM AF SUBJECT: EARLY KARZAI INAUGURAL FEEDBACK: TRIBAL AND WOMEN LEADERS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Twenty Afghan tribal and women leaders, gathered in Kabul November 21, gave Embassy officers contrasting reactions to key points in Karzai's inaugural speech regarding security and corruption. The tribal representatives, mainly from the East, expressed confidence in the ANSF's ability to take responsibility for Afghanistan's safety within five years. That group was reluctant to blame the current government for corruption, but the women - mainly from Kabul - insisted that Karzai take action quickly on anti-corruption by appointing "clean, competent ministers." The women were unwilling to predict that Afghans could ensure their country's security in the short term. End Summary. -------------- Can Afghan Security Forces Take the Lead? -------------- ¶2. (U) We asked for reactions from the women and tribal leaders, who met separately, to the following quote: "We are determined that within the next five years, the Afghan forces will be capable of taking the lead in ensuring security and stability across the country." - President Karzai's inaugural speech, November 19. ¶3. (SBU) Both groups agreed that transferring responsibility for security to the Afghans is an important, tangible goal. A female law professor commented that this line in the inaugural address was "not just the words of President Karzai, but the hope of the entire country." A number of tribal and women leaders drew analogies to past British and Russian presence in Afghanistan to illustrate that only Afghans can secure their own country in the longer term. Participants' views coalesced around two key challenges for both Afghans and the international community: 1) the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)'s perceived lack of funding and equipment and 2) the disruptive role of Afghanistan's neighbors in securing and stabilizing the country. Both groups raised the need for continued financial, military and diplomatic support from the international community to address these issues. ¶4. (SBU) The tribal leaders spoke optimistically about the ability of the ANSF to take over security within the next few years, as a point of Afghan honor, but stressed that more equipment would be key. As one tribal leader put it, "Afghanistan is no longer drinking milk but is growing up, taking its first steps, and learning how to defend itself." He added that that the ANSF has not achieved the status of a national force that can protect the country, but if properly equipped could get there "within about two years." Other tribal representatives agreed that if the international community spent "10-20% of the cost of foreign troops" to supply, arm, and train the Afghan troops, ANSF could assume responsibility for the country's security in short order. ¶5. (SBU) The women reached the same conclusion that better equipment and training is crucial to successfully transferring responsibility for security and stability, but calculated the necessary time frame more cautiously. The Afghan director for the Open Society Institute (OSI) was skeptical that ANSF could take control within five years, referencing the country's economic problems and the degree of outside funding it would take to support the ANA and ANP at its projected levels. Another woman said she was "hopeful ANSF will take over security in 5 years, but the government should not rush things," noting that a slow, responsible process would afford the insurgency fewer "opportunities." ¶6. (SBU) In addition to the need for better equipment, there was a strong consensus that NATO/ISAF forces should improve security along Afghanistan's borders. A Nuristani tribal leader referred to Afghanistan's "two-faced" neighbors and said it would take international pressure on Pakistan to achieve our shared goals. One tribal leader from Paktia suggested all foreign forces should be used exclusively to secure the borders, a comment the women leaders also made. A female MP from Helmand elaborated that if foreign forces controlled the Iranian and Pakistani borders, it positively impact security to the degree that "nothing" would happen inside Afghanistan. -------------- -- Corruption: An Afghan or International Problem? -------------- -- ¶7. (U) We also asked for reactions to the following quote: "The Government of Afghanistan is committed to ending the culture of impunity and law-breaking and bring to justice those involved in spreading corruption and abuse of public property. To do this, we will require effective and strong KABUL 00003744 002 OF 002 measures." - President Karzai's inaugural speech, November ¶19. ¶8. (SBU) The tribal leaders overall gave this quote less attention, speaking only in dispassionate generalities such as the need for corruption to be addressed through appointing "clean, good people" to government positions and improving rule of law. The women leaders, prompted only by the security quote, immediately moved on to corruption and emphasized the need for a "clean, transparent government" and "better, competent ministers." ¶9. (SBU) While the women appreciated the quote, they were skeptical that Karzai has the political will and ability to take real action, given the powerful forces supporting corruption. One woman asserted that Karzai had "promised the same things before and nothing happened." They individually reiterated the need for Karzai to "do what he promised" and stop corruption at every level. A female MP from Helmand feared any crackdown on corruption would only punish lower-ranking officials and not senior government officials. While she noted that, ideally, punishing a corrupt minister would have a positive effect on society, she was skeptical that Afghanistan's "ineffective justice system" would actually convict a senior official. A tribal representative from Takhar maintained that "the same people who break the law are the ones who wrote it," and that "those who take bribes are the ones in powerful positions" (i.e., the reason they get the bribes is that they are in a position to do something for others.) ¶10. (SBU) Tribal and women leaders both alluded to the role the international community plays in analyzing - and allowing - corruption. A tribal representative from Paktia requested the international media and governments "stop attacking" the Afghan government and "portraying it as corrupt" because the government could prove it was clean and competent. The head of the Kuchi (Nomad) directorate and a female law professor both alleged that "corrupt people were imposed on Karzai at Bonn" when the "U.S. appointed known warlords and human rights abusers" (Northern alliance warlords) to positions in the transitional government. Participants in both groups also noted that corruption is not limited to the Afghan government, but can also be seen in donor organizations and NGOs who received "millions of dollars with no checks and balances." ¶11. (SBU) Though the discussion participants criticized the United States for contributing to corruption, they also suggested ways for the international community to help improve governance. One tribal leader appeared confident that an international conference on corruption organized by Karzai (also mentioned in the inauguration speech) could be a useful starting to point to seriously address corruption. A female Afghan Red Crescent board member commented that many competent Afghans are hired by NGOs and international organizations, leaving only "people who just want to take advantage of the situation" in government positions. She recommended the international community take responsibility for building capacity within the Afghan government. The OSI country director implored the international community to "impose a merit-based system on parliament and cabinet positions" and apply serious pressure to the government through conditionality of funding. While some organizations and countries have already applied conditions to their funding, this strategy could only be effective with U.S. participation, she said. -------------- Turn Words Into Deeds! -------------- ¶12. (SBU) While the women and tribal representatives agree that transferring security responsibility to the Afghans and ending corruption are vital goals, through their comments they demonstrated that they will not feel confident that Afghanistan is moving in the right direction until they see serious demonstrations of political will - by Karzai and also by the international community. Appointing competent ministers will be the Afghan government's first and most important step to show Karzai is serious about ending the "culture of impunity." If he takes that step, the Afghan people will likely grant him more time to focus on eliminating corruption in other areas of government. The Afghans are also expecting action from the international community, including better oversight of donor funding and a reiteration of our commitment to train and equip the ANSF to make it ready for a new, leading role. Mussomeli