(C) AFGHAN COMMERCE MINISTER DISCUSSES REFORM AGENDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 003714 C O R R E C T E D COPY (TEXT) NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/SRAP AND SCA/A E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL EAID AF SUBJECT: (C) AFGHAN COMMERCE MINISTER DISCUSSES REFORM AGENDA Classified by Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C//NF) SUMMARY: Reform-minded Afghan Commerce Minister Shahrani, who hopes for U.S. support to keep a ministerial job, argued on November 15 that President Karzai is under heavy pressure from Afghan politicians to accept less than ideal ministers and urged that the US and other donors talk not only to Karzai but also to those politicians to stress the importance of approving a good slate. Sharani also shared his view of reforms needed in the new government, insights into fighting corruption, views on the importance of getting sub-national governance right, and the need for the government and donors to agree on specific performance benchmarks tied to aid delivery. End Summary. ¶2. (C//NF) Afghan Commerce Minister Shahrani told Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Wayne on November 15 that President Karzai is under great pressure from political leaders to accept a number of ministerial candidates whose technical skills are lacking. He specifically cited pressure from ex-warlord General Dostum, from ex-jihadist Professor Sayyaf and Hazara leader Mohaqqeq. Shahrani, who wants U.S. support to stay on in the cabinet, expressed concern that Karzai would not resist the pressure for political payback on his own, and urged the U.S. and other donors to communicate directly with these political groupings to indicate that if a weak or corrupt set of ministers was put in place then the U.S. and others would be forced to withdraw their support. He argued that these political leaders are only thinking of dividing up the spoils rather than the quality of government needed to tackle Afghanistan's problems. Shahrani repeatedly argued that the next five years are essential for Afghanistan and the first months of the new Karzai administration are key to getting the right reforms in place to really bring about positive change in the years ahead. Afghanistan needs the U.S. and other donors to have a chance for real progress, he said. He urged that the U.S. speak frankly in private to Karzai as well as key Afghan political leaders. ¶3. (SBU) Shahrani argued that it is essential that the U.S. and other international donors get as many specific commitments as possible from Karzai, in the inaugural speech if possible and subsequently then in some sort of joint document between donors and Afghanistan. A key step is to press for the President to be clear on basic commitments in his inaugural speech, especially about good governance and fighting corruption. Shahrani said he hoped the President would approve up to ten key areas for reform in the first year of his administration. He and Finance Minister Zakhilwal agree, according to Sharani, that the reform areas should be in areas where the population will see a difference in delivery of services. ¶4. (C//NF) Shahrani underscored the need for very good ministerial and gubernatorial appointments and the concomitant reform of government organizations. He said that he and other reform-minded ministers still believe they have Karzai's support to name lead ministers for five key clusters: 1) finance, economy and commerce; 2) agriculture and rural Development; 3) human development (education and health); 4) security; and 5) justice/rule of law. Cleaning up the last sector will be essential, he argued, especially given the degree of corruption currently in the Attorney General's ministry and the judicial system. If this does not happen, it will be very hard to address corruption in the rest of the government. Similarly, the executive office of the President needs serious reorganization so the President gets a good and balanced flow of information and advice and so that ministerial coordination and cabinet decision-making can be significantly enhanced, Sharani said. (Note: This is a complaint we have heard from a wide variety of sources, from donor nations to Palace insiders. End note.) ¶5. (C//NF) Turning to corruption more broadly, Shahrani argued that State-owned enterprises need to be turned into independent commercial entities rapidly (on the way to privatization),as they are great sources of corruption. Shahrani also singled out the Transportation Ministry as a hot bed of corruption, especially its airport operations and its "private enterprise group." Finance Minister Zakhilwal had recently broken up a corruption ring at Kabul Airport, but the private sector group is an even bigger problem. This unit includes people who collect fees on trucks traveling in Afghanistan. Estimates are that about $200 million are collected yearly but only $30 million are turned over to the government, he said. Individuals pay up to $250,000 for the post heading this office in Herat, for example, and end up owning beautiful mansions as well as making lucrative political donations. This ministry should be a top target for cleaning up in the new regime. ¶6. (SBU) In his November 15 conversation with Ambassador Wayne, Shahrani said, 14 of Afghanistan's governors have been identified by Local Governance minister Popal as bad performers and/or corrupt. These 14 should be fired, and the new government should implement procedures for selecting governors based on merit and for reviewing performance on a yearly basis. Such a performance review process should be put in place for all top officials. There must also be a greater focus on improving service delivery at the provincial level, he argued. Governors should be given more substantial operational budgets as well as placed under more rigorous auditing controls. The big municipalities also need careful attention, first in good mayoral appointments and then in greatly improved management, tax collection and service delivery. ¶7. (C//NF) Turning to international assistance, Shahrani argued that donors should tie additional aid to clear benchmarks and timelines. This should be publically announced as part of a broader agreement, and donors should be tough in demanding agreed performance benchmarks before distributing additional assistance. Such an agreement should call for some overarching commitments, with each ministry receiving aid committed to achieving its own set of benchmarks in consultations with donors. There should be focus on improving delivery of services to the population and mechanisms should be put in place to measure success. Shahrani suggested that the action plans for ministries should have three to four year time horizons. ¶8. (C//NF) Comment: Minister Shahrani is working closely with the Ministers of Finance, Agriculture, Education and local government to encourage bold reform moves by the new Karzai administration. While some of the specific ideas he shared may be his own, they are consistent with what other reform-minded ministers have been saying and urging. Shahrani clearly hopes for U.S. support in keeping a cabinet position. He has been a good partner on a range of commercial and economic issues and an energetic proponent of reaching a trade agreement with Pakistan. He has also gone out of his way to help on bilateral issues such as finalizing arrangements for U.S. Consulate leases. EIKENBERRY